So after last weeks unmitigated disaster and the first time all season where I had nothing to cheer on, on the Sunday we slip into the final week of the season and the Fedex.
What is usually an atrocious betting event and essentially a reverse handicap with the best player in the world leading at the off, it's a week to look for value. The starting list is as follows due to season placings.
10 under: Scottie Scheffler
Eight under: Patrick Cantlay
Seven under: Will Zalatoris
Six under: Xander Schauffele
Five under: Sam Burns
Four under: Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Sungaje Im
Three under: Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick
Two under: Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland
One under: Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Brian Harman
Even par: K.H. Lee, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, Aaron Wise
Mcilroy looked on fire last week but 6 shots back I don't like him pin seeking as he has too many errors and a caddie incapable of controlling him. So it's 3 selections this week looking for value.
First up is Xander Schauffelle, he loves East Lake, he's trending like a mad man and he looks primed for a top 3 finish, just 4 shots back with a decent week on the greens. He's great value at 8/1 each way top 3, 1/4 odds 8pts each way.
Next up is the biggest disappointment of the year, a guy who looked set to see out his greatness for the next few years after those 2 putts at Torrey Pines, but a lack of love for the game, and new arrivals in the Rahm household, have seen him totally out of sorts all season; minus one pop and crisps event in Mexico. John Rahm doesn't carry the baggage of the favourite tag or the expectation of normal weeks, and that freedom coupled with the baby bounce, see him as a real dark horse at 16s. I don't know why, but it does feel like an opportunity to recreate what he is capable of. 5pts each way 16/1 top 4, 1/4 odds with bet365.
Lastly it's a dart at the board and nothing more. It's a feel pick and after a look at the Collin Morikawa squeezy fade last week, I'll have some of the 80/1 top 4, 1/4 odds 2pts each way, purely because minus that stupid draw he's tried, he hits it like god and 9 shots in 4 rounds isn't stupid even though it's Scheffler at the top.
This has potential to be a damp end to the season - a week away from the model wouldn't be a bad thing. I will be watching Theegala this week in amongst the big boys for someone for the wrap around especially in Hawaii, as he could be next season's Cam Young or maybe just Davis Riley!!!!
Good luck and here's too more profits this week and an eye on a big year next year.
