As the real tournaments start now, and the players head to Torrey Pines this week for the Farmers, the reflection on the miraculous performance of Nick Dunlap is still swirling around the game and my head.
No amateur has won a PGA tour event since 1991, when a fresh faced Phil Mickelson broke onto the golf scene. Dunlap may or may not have quite the career lefty did, but he is set for the big lights at the top end of the game. To beat such a field is one thing, but to lose a 4 shot lead so early on Sunday, and then recover to go again and hold his nerve whilst those around him were losing their heads, was something special. He has an amazing Collegiate career, he's the US Amateur champion and he has the stones and ability to go far. That aside what a performance it was a shining light on a dung pile, joke tournament, where 13 under was the cut line.....give me a break.
So Torrey Pines hosts the Farmers Insurance Championship this week, and we at last, have some proper golf. Another Wednesday start this week sees 156 players going to post, with a round on the North and the South Course before the cut on Thursday evening, and the final 2 rounds on the South Course on Friday and Saturday. Warm and calm conditions this week may see the winning score get towards the 15 under mark as some early rain yesterday will have softened things also, but this shouldn't underestimate the test facing these players, where 20 of the world's top 50 attend and the rough will be up to 4" and above punishing wayward strikes, and denying control of approach shots onto lighting surfaces.
With the 4 at the head of the market, RIDICULOUSLY short, the bookies have clearly shat their knickers and offered no value on Morikawa who is my big fancy this week and single figures. Schauffelle scored well last week, but won't get away with such sloppy ball striking in places (and he wins 1 in 40 when in contention). Homa has no known form at the start of this year, and Cantlay is putting like a twat again, so we look for value as is my M.O.
We will go in order of value rather than in order of chance of winning this week, and we start off with the enigma that is LUKE LIST. For a player with such sketchy form, bang average wedge play and putting akin to a blind badger on a white water raft, he has absolutely nothing going for him - apart from the course. Even in years where he was lower than a snakes belly he has performed well here, and 2 years ago he won the event beating Zalatoris in a play off. He had missed cuts before and after a plenty (which has been the story of his career these last 5 years) yet his recent record here is 25th, 1st, 10th, 36th, 40th, 12th! He's best priced 66/1 with Hills top 8, 3pts e/w.
Next up we go again with JASON DAY. Refer back to notes last week, he didn't putt great last week on slower surfaces, but few players putt better on Po grass than this guy and they will be lightning this week. Previous record he is an eye watering sight, 7th, 3rd, MC, 16th, 5th, 1st. He has shot all 8 rounds in the 60s this year, I really fancy him to go very close and there is juice in the 25/1 at Hills 8 places, so 8pts e/w.
Next up we have course specialist and a man with a point to prove to Zac Johnson, but to nobody else, it's the class act KEEGAN BRADLEY. Someone who I expect to contend in the majors this year, Bradley lost in a play off at the Sony last time out, he finished 2nd here last year, 5th in 2018, 4th in 2017, he's up to 13th in the world and he has no recognisable weaknesses to his game now. He's not the biggest price but on the grounds he has a chance to win I couldn't ignore him, so we go 6pts e/w 28/1 Hills 8 Places.
Next up we go with a blog favourite and one of those players who could be put up a lot when he's these kind of odds. RYO HISATSUNE won the French Open at Le Golf Nationale in Paris last year at just 20 years of age and has since earned a PGA tour card. His first 2 events have seen him finish 30th and 11th, and his highest score in those 8 rounds is 69
, as he has shot a cumulative 32 under. It's safe to say he hasn't been phased by the change of scenery, and if you can play Le Golf Nationale, you can play anywhere. A streaky player, and an outstanding putter, he is the opposite type of player to what I usually go for, but at 100/1 with Hills 8 places, I can't pass up a 2pt e/w investment to round the week off with Hills again at 100/1 8 places.
Silly season strikes in my last 1pt e/w as there is a price to be had for recent Korn Ferry graduate PIERCESON COODY. The younger twin of Parker Coody by 37 mins, this 23 year old earned his PGA tour status with 2 wins last season on the Korn Ferry tour. He has missed his first 2 cuts due to some poor Iron play, but he has previous here in 2021 where he shot 2 respectable rounds as an Amateur in the US Open. That course form and belief that as a 20 yr old novice he mixed it with the best players in the world, in the toughest conditions, could relax him this week, and the former Number 1 Amateur golfer and 2022 best University player has a whole lot going for him this week, and maybe he can outrun his 500/1 odds with Hills 1pt e/w 8 places.
Don't forget this starts tomorrow so get on tonight at the latest, and have a shop around as some of the bigger prices might get pushed back out with the top 4 being so skinny.
Go well, and at least this week I can say; ENJOY!
TEWT