Quail Hollow, the Wells Fargo, this weeks elevated event brings a top class field (minus world number 1 and 2) to North Carolina. After a 1 year hiatus, due to last years change of venue due to the Presidents Cup (it's some event British golf fans don't give a shit about), Quail Hollow is back. The odds all point to Rory, who has 2 wins and 6 top 10s in his last 8 starts here and he is the obvious pick, yet at a pitiful 7/1, given his driving woes and disappearance I can't have him (famous last words).
Last week saw a profit but Sunday was very unkind when 3 men looked set to go close to placing. Mark Hubbard finished a shot outside of the places at strong odd, but Will Gordon hit the purse strings with an abysmal back 9 on the last day when he looked set for a top 5 finish at least. The blog regular Emiliano Grillo picked up some good place money, but the bigger picture is how he played. His putting was average in tour terms but for him looked much improved from 5 feet and in, but his driving and iron play was so good and he is back in my opinion and he must be eyeing up the worlds top 50 and a good run at the fedex this year, he is so talented and maybe just maybe he will appear below. I get no financial return for stating the obvious but read back the blog last week and I called exactly what would happen, should have just done a forecast!
Quail Hollow, North Carolina, 7600 yards par 71, is a best of a course that suits big hitters and good putters. Max Homa got his first tour win here in 2018 and went on to finish 4-0-0 in the Presidents cup and but for some awful form he would be 14-16/1 this week, yet even at 28/1 I can't pick him. Rory is mega short, Finau knows how to go back to back, Speith is bang in form and won all 5 matches in the PC, it's a real muddle this week.
4 picks this week include 1 live chance at big odds and almost included two 1000/1 shots, but Nick Watney and Callum Tarren just missed the cut. Also a special mention goes to Justin Suh and Cam Champ who nearly got picked ahead of Mitchell splitting his points investment
First up this week is, for me, the best Driver in world golf. He seems to hit it better and better every week and although he didn't play great in the Presidents cup he gets the nod here as an obvious contender. Is this the week he doesn't come 2nd? He's my most selected player in the blog. Can you guess who it is yet? 20/1 each way 8 places with Bet365.........6 pts e/w.........it's CAM YOUNG. He drives the ball too well not to contend, I think we could get a good run Sunday evening.
Next up with have the big hitting, recent winner in TAYLOR MOORE. Moore was the chief selection in the Zurich and was going in the selections regardless of who he played with. He is loving his 2nd year on tour and this 29 year old Texan sits 10th in the Fedex Standings. After a slow start to the season Taylor found form in February and hasn't looked back. He finished 11th in The Farmers, 15th at Pebble and 14th at the WM Phoenix in consecutive weeks before his first real foray into the big time at Bayhill 39th, The Players 35th and the Masters 39th. In between he won at the Valspar out staying Speith and Burns and since he has finished 11th at the Heritage and carried NeSmith (sorry Matt) to 4th in the Zurich. He is the next cab on the rank in my opinion, and unlike me I'm falling for a guy who can putt!!!! At 75/1 with Bet365 he is 3pts e/w top 8.
The process of elimination this week was impossible, so in the absence of any clear value on a potential winner I'm looking to nick a place again this week and the next two picks are Thief regulars and filthy e/w prices. Obviously after what I said at the start and after watching so much of him last week, the impressive and talented EMILIANO GRILLO appears here once again. His putting is a work in progress and his entire game is coming together after a 7th at the elevated Heritage event and 5th last week. He's never missed a cut at Quail, his last two appearances here are 9th and 14th and I cannot believe his odds this week. I'm 2pts e/w and very hopefully for Grillo, with Skybet at 125/1 top 8.
So last up I went round the houses with this. Tom Kim, Theegala or a split investment in Champ and Suh, but in the end course record and driving ability left me with no option but to select KEITH MITCHELL. Keith loves the grass here in the east, he plays well in Florida, loves Bermuda grass and his last two starts here are 3rd and 8th. Mitchell has my favourite swing on tour, and with driving accuracy and distance he sits 6th on tour strokes gained with the big Dog. He is a known quantity, and despite a drop off in the last month in form, his ball striking in the Zurich 2 weeks ago makes his 55/1 Bet365 Top 8 odds very appealing for the last 3pts e/w.
Profit and Loss has been updated, it's not looking great with a profit of just 72.3 points this season now after a terrible March, but this week I reckon Cam wins and Grillo places and all of a sudden we inch closer to last years big returns, the thief is back, maybe....lol.
In summary
Cam Young 20/1 Bet365 8 places 7pts e/w
Taylor Moore 75/1 Bet365 8 Places 3pts e/w
Emiliano Grillo 125/1 Skybet 8 Places 2pts e/w
Keith Mitchell 55/1 Bet365 8 Places 3pts e/w
TEWT
