So we travel to Ohio this week for an iconic event at Muirfield Village, as the great Jack Nicklaus hosts the Memorial tournament, in a stellar field (as stellar as it can be without Rahm, Bryson etc).
We don't just head into this week; some of us bounce into it, although it does appear some of you didn't receive the email alerts and missed last week's 75/1 winner in Bob Mcintyre. I have contacted Wix about this as I pay £20 a month for this website so hopefully this has been fixed. It's been a long old haul since Villegas last year, but the system is based around nicking each way money and the odd winner for profit. It's not a blog putting up 3/1 shots so you can show off to mates about how much you won on 1 given week, always remember we are a profit based system, this is all substance, not just show and that is why this differs from the bloggers who put up the Favs. You'd have to back Scheffler 15 times for the win to get the returns Bob gave us last week, then another 25 times for what Villegas did....so keep following, keep the faith, this system works, it's like the old dog for xmas saying.
So no more appealing for patience, let's get some more reddies in our accounts and we go this week into this huge event with 3 players already sewn into my psyche, and a couple more in a coin toss for pick number 4.
Muirfield is a great test and such a Golden Bear layout. The necessity to shape it both ways, to be accurate, and distance control, bleeds into this course and it suits top class players, all round players and fierce accuracy. The rough will be up, the greens should be firm and some 10-15mph winds and warm weather will test the players going into the weekend especially. It's still quite long but short hitters also have a chance (David Lipsky last year!) and we select 4 players this week on this par 72, 7569 yard layout (4 x par 3s 4 x par 5s).
First up we have last year's winner and my favourite player on tour, not just for his brilliant golf game but for his personality and flair. For some reason after winning last year's Fedex Play offs (which we picked) VIKTOR HOVLAND inexplicably followed the the likes of Kaymer and Morikawa off the cliff of coach and swing changes and immediately unravelled his game and threatened to ruin his career. His squeezy fade coming slightly over the top, out to in yielded a succession of wins and brilliant performances at the very top of the world game. He had everything, and thank god he ripped up the experiment quick enough to recover in time for the majors. I have been waiting for the shoots of recovery and the PGA showed me and the world that he is back, he is on point and thus ready to challenge Scottie at the top. His form has left so much juice in his price but despite the obvious form upturn and reasons behind it, the bookies have left him all wrong and at 16/1, 6 places with Hills we go 8pts e/w in expectation not hope, at a course that suits him down to the ground, especially if it's firm and fast.
A similar story with the next pick, BILLY HORSCHEL undertook a shot shaping change 3 years ago moving to try and get length out of his draw. Not a big hitter, but an accurate player, and fierce competitor Billy lost his way, culminating in last years harrowing interview where he broke down and spoke of having to consider retiring he was so poor. This season has yielded a new dawn for Billy though, and the globetrotting, effervescent, multi coloured trouser wearing personality seems back to his best. In singles competitions he has missed the cut at the Players, and at The Valero, but his previous results without these two stand at 9, 12, 7, 1, 52, 8, 24. His 8th at the PGA on a course that would have been very long for him shows just how accurate and dialled in he is again, and although his approach stats aren't what you would expect, he loves it here. He won here in 22, last year he was in the bin so that is a write off, and with his form and his price I'm happy to go 3pts e/w at 66/1 with Hills 6 places.
Next up another blog favourite and in order of value the pick of the week that is big SHANE LOWRY. No weaknesses in Shane's game he is having some year on tour and will be annoyed with himself that he is yet to win. He drives phenomenally well, which is often overlooked with him being so strong 100 and in with his wedges. His putting weaknesses are always an achilles heal, but this guy has won at Firestone, he's won an Open and this season he has 4 top 10s including the Arnold Palmer, what was the Honda and at the PGA, so his ability to play difficult courses is obvious. He can work it both ways, and any course Jack puts together suits his all round game. 125th on tour in putting tells the story, but 16, 32, 6 in the last 3 seasons (where his game hasn't been quite on) is enough for me to go 3pts e/w at a huge 60/1 with Hills 6 places.
Of the 73 players in the field this week, you can make a case for 60 of them so we have gone strong with just 3 larger investments. Our last player is a stab in the dark at a big price, given recent form, the recent win, and the belief that perhaps that win will allow this guy to recognise the talent, that had him predicted as the next cab off the rank when he joined the PGA tour 2 years ago. Single figure odds for at least 2 majors in 2022, DAVIS RILEY found himself at the upper echelons of leaderboard's regularly, but weekends were not his friends and he blew a big lead at the Valspar in 2022 and also a good opportunity here shooting a poor 75 when in contention. This season he has zero form, he played ok in Texas, but the win at the Charles Schwab, the comfortable win, when Scottie was staring him down, showed his class and if that can be realised his price of 125/1 with Bet365 8 places is good enough for our final 1pt e/w as he just pipped Lee Hodges for the outsider selection.
TEWT