After feeling bullish bordering on smug last Friday night, my players misinterpreted the phrase 'moving day' and Hovland, Simpson and Grillo decided to go in the opposite direction. Simpson was a huge surprise, he had 8no 1 putts on the trot on Friday and looked such a good thing. Hovland I can't put my finger on and all in all a 5 point loss was quite a result with Tony Finau getting a 4th place finish due to a final day blow up from half of the field. I cant advocate in play betting on a blog like this but some of those hole level shots showed greens at Colonial on Sunday that looked almost impossible to play on.......and Sam Burns looked the winner at 9 under 2 hours before the leaders finished. A real testament to the machine that is the Scheff to get into a play off and he got beat by a freak putt from Sam Burns and now the two guys have 7 wins between them. Burn's short game late on Sunday was an exhibition, he's in the US Open picks already.
So now to one of my favourite tournaments at Muirfield Village this weekend as Jack Nicklaus hosts the Memorial Tournament. A relatively short layout, but recently extended 7392 yard par 72, Muirfield is fraught with thick rough and tight fairways and reflects a typical Nicklaus design which promotes hitting fairways and having control of spin on approach play. Patrick takes forever Cantlay has won 2 out of the last 3 tournaments here, painfully pipping Morikawa last year in a play off of outrageous putting.
The thread this week could be a homage to the weather. There will be no wind (although some of these players will dribble on about which way the 2mph pixies breath, draft, is coming from) but worryingly there are thunderstorms due wednesday and thursday so there could be delay, it will be soft and maybe a late thursday early friday draw bias could be a thing.
Two players head my thoughts this week, one due to form and soft greens, and the other due to a resurgence coupled with a love of the course (albeit pre the latest redesign).
So straight to the 6pt pick it's just got to be Rory Mcilroy. I've been waiting for wet greens to push the button, he's bang in form, Pete Cowan has got him that freedom back in his swing, his putting is improving and he will hit fairways so with scores being in the mid to late teens all roads point to Rory going close. 6pts e/w 12/1 top 8 is some A grade thievery, it's short but he will go close.
My second pick in order of value is the evergreen and deeply unlikeable Matt Kuchar. The guy is a cash machine, he's had a stellar career and has cultivated a reputation as being a great guy. Sadly for Matt, his treatment of Colthard at the open a few years ago live on telly, his sh*thousery with rules officials when not realising there are mic's nearby and finally the non payment of a stand in caddy post his WGC win in Mexico, have bismerched this rep, so as a matter of principle I don't like cheering him on. He's a two time winner here however, he's back to form, his ridiculous interlocked putter down his right arm (wrong arm Matt!!) Is red hot (somehow), and at 70/1 top 8 with Skybet he's 2.5pts e/w.
2 more picks this week another shorty and a biggy. Collin Morikawa is a player in the golden bear's image and I just dont see him being outside the top 5 AND his odds are double what I would expect. Having said that his dispersion with his Irons aren't at the god-like levels of last year, but at 22/1 top 8 with Hills 4pts each way is a lock for profit.
Last but by no means least is former runner up and lip balm dodger Ryan Palmer. Ryan has been making cuts all year he's a top 5 at the Byron Nelson and he played well for 3 days last week. Now he is one of many at large odds to make a case for, but my rationale here is that Palmer is in the red with his strokes gained putting this season. He's been solid off the tee, solid on SG approaches, yet the strength of his game, his short stick, is as cold as my Mrs when I go golfing on bank holidays. When the putter is cold it's cold and usually I'd dodge such a stat, but Palmer can't keep putting poorly, and at 80/1 top 8 he's getting my remaining 2.5pts e/w.
In summary:
Mcilroy 6pts e/w 12/1
Kuchar 2.5pts e/w 70/1
Morikawa 4pts e/w 22/1
Palmer 2.5pts 80/1