The Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta is the next stop on the PGA tour this week. It's a John Rahm vs Tony Finau shootout with a host of second tier golfers in behind, and this week I think it is highly unlikely that the 11/4 fav or 7/1 2nd fav doesn't take home the trophy. Instead this week we go full thievery and I have 5 selections at prices to place as we try and get two into those money slots.
Last week saw a return to profit after a dry spell, and but for Theegala and Suh finishing bogey - triple bogey we would have had 2 places for both selections last week (after NeSmith and Moore played so solidly for a 5th place finish). I did back Hardy and Riley in running at a nice price on Sunday, and as much as I wasn't surprised with the quality of Hardy's play especially, the one note I took out of the last day was the absolute horror show and bottling I saw from Wyndham Clark and Beau Hossler. Both men have been on the blog at various times, and I was really put off by both men and they are in the bin for me from this point on (or until Clark proves me wrong).
Mexico this week sees the 2nd playing of the Mexico Open at Vallarta, which was won last year by John Rahm, just seeing out Finau in a similarly weak field to this week. Both men are head and shoulders above these guys, but the value is not in the market at the top end, so we head into this week with 5 selections at big odds.
Vidanta ranks as one of the harder courses on tour after last year, and this Par 71, 7456 yard layout is protected by bunkering that is penal for once, and length and accuracy off the tee seemed last year to be the key to success. With this course and event only being in it's second year I'm not taking stats from last year as it is too small a sample size, instead I'm looking for good drivers and players who have shown a marked upward curve in form in the last few months. As I'm looking at place money we will go in odds order this week, so the starting name on the list is last years blog favourite EMILIANO GRILLO. The Argentines putting woes will never be far away, but where last year his lag putting and his short putting failings were abhorrent (that means shit), this year he sees himself at 154th SG putting through 42 rounds, which is a lazarus type comeback from where he was at. His talent, his ball striking, his driving accuracy and creativity, as well as his bunker play make him a fit here, and his form is decent, making 6 of the last 8 cuts and a 7th place position at the Heritage 2 weeks ago, I really like his profile and price with Bet365, top 8 45/1 and I'm 5pts e/w.
Next up we have 2 new names to the blog, the first of which is Korn Ferry graduate WILL GORDON. His 2nd year with full playing privileges started with 8 consecutive made cuts and a 3rd place in Mayakoba, however his showing in the main events in February and March proved to him and to the golfing world that he is a top 50 player at the very least and a player on the up. 42nd at the Honda, 70th at Bayhill, 54th at the Players and 36th at the Valspar have got him money and points but also belief can that he can mix it with the best and the best are not here this week. His short game seems to be the only issue that is a concern, but he drives well, putts well and is a strong iron player and in this field he will be disappointed if he isn't in and around the top 10 at least, so ignoring his missed cut in Texas I'm taking 66/1 8 places with Bet365 and again I'm 3pts e/w.
A man who hasn't quite made it off the shortlist on a couple of occasions this season makes the cut this week and that man is LEE HODGES. A strong driver, Hodges is a streaky putter and streaky player and has shot some very low rounds this season without quite following up on them. Two top 10s and 6 top 30s this year, as a result of throwing the odd bad round in 4, have seen Lee underperform so far this season. I do love his stat of 12 consecutive sand saves this season at one point, and with his driving accuracy I'll have some of the 66/1 on offer with Bet365 top 8 places and again it's 3pts e/w.
The penultimate pick is another lesser known name to many. At 33 years of age MARK HUBBARD could be called a 'journeyman' pro, but for a real rise in his stock post lockdown. 7 top 25s last year saw make the play-offs for just the 2nd time in 10 seasons and he currently stands at 88th on the fedex list. An 11th place at Harbour Town recently, along with a strong showing at Sawgrass, Pebble and at the Sanderson Farms where he finished 5th, bely his long odds. Conversely to the other selections Hubbard is not a player who thrives with his big stick, his driving stats are poor. A lack of accuracy and distance (comparably to his fellow tour pros) hold him back sometimes, but his iron play and short game are much towards the better end of the statistics and in this field he could place with a decent week off the tee. He shot a 68 first round here last year, closing with a 69 and at 100/1 top 8 with Hills he's a good e/w squeak with 2pts e/w.
Last but by no means least is a sentimental pick for a sentimental old fool (me not him). Seeing JIMMY WALKER play so well in South Carolina for all 4 rounds recently, was a joy to behold. A nicer man you could not wish to hear from on the mic live in round 3. A lot has rightly been made of his lime disease, which has debilitated the 2016 PGA Champion and 6 time PGA Tour winner, but he seemed to cope physically with 4 rounds at the Top of the leaderboard at Harbour Town, and he has a stellar CV compared to others here. I knew the 300/1 odds once on show would go after the recent showing, but I expected with 8 places on offer 3 figures would not be available. He played all 4 rounds in Texas before the Heritage too, had a week off last week so comes into this in fine fettle, full of belief and seemingly fitter and stronger than he has been in years. Hills are looking strong this week for the outsiders and at 150/1 top 8 I'm a bullish 2pts e/w.
In Summary (bet365 8 places each way extra, Hills 8 places)
Grillo 5pts e/w Bet365 45/1
Will Gordon 3pts e/w Bet365 66/1
Lee Hodges 3pts e/w Bet365 66/1
Mark Hubbard 2pts e/w Hills 100/1
Jimmy Walker 2pts e/2 Hills 150/1