At the Valspar, the Valspar.

Sorry had to use the same title as last year as the Valspar always reminds me of Electric Six's Indie track Gay Bar.

Although many of you got extra places last week on Bobby Mac, and well done to you, I can't take credit for that as his putt didn't drop on 18 costing us 60 points for the bank. That aside, what an event. They grew the rough up, the wind blew and Sawgrass was shown in it's absolute best light. Nothing bores me more than benign conditions and receptive greens, when it is firm, breezy and punishing of poor shots an event can be great and the Players was great. Kudos goes to Rory, who did something, that for me is a first, he won not playing his best. such maturity is so heartening to see, and maybe this could see him close in on that Green jacket, if he can calm the outside noise. I've really come to like Rory, it took time, but his willingness to put his nob on the block and speak his mind, and in a world of pious, soporific drivel from players and administrator's alike, he is a breath of fresh air, and if I could watch Sky on mute I'd be cheering him on. Sadly listening to to their commentary teams throwing the contents of their pants at us every time he plays well is tiresome, almost as tiresome as them putting up Tommy Fleetwood, a man who has never won a PGA tour event after 149 starts. How a so called expert can predict that after 148 failures to win that this is the week is laughable, I know they have to put up a player, but Beem, Dame Laura and Dougherty continue to pick absolutely dreadfully, it just irks me, and don't get me started on the teams they have at Sky for these events. I wonder what ex Euro tour dud will be in this week, how about some insight and opinion lads and lasses, I bet Sarah Stirk or Rob Lee absolutely dread presenting unless Howell or Simon Holmes are on, the rest are a joke, get me on to stir it up, I'd get the viewing figures up, until I got sacked a week later. Rant over.

So Copperhead, Innisbrook, and the aptly named snake pit, is the venue and test for the Valspar this week, and another absolutely fabulous golf course. 3 weeks running we have a proper track, a shot makers track, not something Aldrich Podgyget has a prayer of keeping a sleeve of balls form being lost on, this place is tight, it requires tee to green brilliance, you need length, but with length there is trouble, and when you look at the list of winners, it's just so obvious that a thinking mans crumpet golfer will go well here and boy we have some mental picks this week and the top of the market has stretched some odds that have literally blown me away.

A Par 71, 7352 Yards the Copperhead course takes players left to right, right to left, right round baby right round, like a record baby, and these blokes have to shape the ball and boy do they have to hit it straight off the tee. Sam Burns twice, Paul Casey twice, Jason Kokrak, Taylor Moore the best drivers of the ball go well, and last year somehow that absolute arse Cam Young managed to lose to Peter Malnati despite driving like god, bottling it on the stretch. Another pound in the Cam Young swear jar for me, we have a mix of classic players and pristine ball strikers, I cant have the likes of Thomas, Theegala, Speith or Schauffelle the way they are hitting it off the tee, and Tommy Fleetwood is 12/1 fav. I mean what the actual f? This lunacy has stretched the odds of so many, boy am I excited and we have 8 players and some at huge odds. Now this week does comes with a huge health warning. I don't like weather and draw forecasting but it seems only an act of god can change the obvious draw advantage players with an early/late draw have. Belting winds are predicted Thursday PM and Friday morning, and the winds Thursday morning and Friday afternoon aren't great but we are talking 30-40mph gusts for those on the wrong side of the draw, it could be carnage and it could be a cut of 4 or 5 over, so regardless it will be suffering on grass for these blokes, and I'm taking the punt on our main selections with an early/late start time (for the layman players start either early Thursday finishing late Friday or late Thursday finishing early Friday, so weather conditions can vary according to this).

Let's start with the big ones. We have 1000/1 with Paddy Power 8 places, and I cannot believe that CAMILLO VILLEGAS is available at that. He isn't a premium driver of the ball but he is just all wrong price wise. A former 2 time play off winner and a huge price winner on the blog, I can't shake off his ability to think his way around golf course and his nouse and short game could see him sneak a place maybe, who knows, but at 1000/1 8 places with Paddy Power we go 1pt each way, but he does not have a good draw so it may be burning a crisp 1 pound note.

Next biggy is 300/1 shot, former blog winning pick, ball striker extraordinaire who has the profile for this place. I actually did a double take when tracking his price, how on earth it has stabilised where it is, it has shocked me. EMILIANO GRILLO is still and always will be a disgraceful putter, but he can work the ball both ways, he hits fairways for fun and he knows how to play difficult courses. When scores are low, as he proved at Colonial, it puts less pressure on the flat stick, and he will make fewer mistakes than most, this is a great price people, 300/1 with Paddy Power 8 places, 1 pt each way get on!

After mentioning this time last year, that CHANDLER PHILLIPS moustache and golf game were something to watch, it was good to see him realise some form at the Players last week. This kid has game, he was a gun player on the Korn Ferry tour and although he tailed off at Sawgrass, he looked good for a while there and he comes here off the back of a 3rd place here last season. Another solid driver, not a short hitter, but an accurate one, he is value and at 125/1 with literally everyone, we go 10 places with Coral or laddies and check the extra market on Bet365. He has a dream early draw Thursday, come Friday dinnertime he could be laughing! 2.5 pts e/w.

Statistically the best driver on tour this season, French robot VICTOR PEREZ is still not firing. If he can get a good psychologist, or maybe go and see Pete Cowan, this wasted talent could turn into a multiple winner and Ryder cup player. He has a putting weakness, for rationale see Grillo write up above, but he is supremely talented, if he can grow a brain and some nuts he is stupidly undervalued and overpriced at 175/1 8 places with Bet365 and 2pts each way is a no brainer. He also comes here off the back of an 18th place at PGA National, and had 3 top 20 finishes in March last year so this time of year looks strong also, there is a lot to like.

As Cam Davis and Lucas Glover have been given late/early draws I switch attention to the earlies on Thursday and another big price is NEIL SHIPLEY. An invite this week, he was unlucky not to get more starts in last season and therefore with only $420,000 dollars won in just 10 events he has gone back onto the Korn Ferry tour, but he belongs here. Playing rights may be a tough burden for him, but he came 15th in Chile last week, and he hits fairways and greens, so can go well at a whopping 225/1 with Paddy Power 8 places and we throw 1.5pts at him e/w.

Another big price pick as we head to former PGA National contender and the sweet swinging ERIC COLE. He has not quite hit the heights this year but he loves Bermuda and a mix of Bermuda and Tiff Eagle Grass see him right at home in these amazing conditions. This tree lined beast could again provide him with the freedom that he doesn't have to birdie the life out the place and the experienced Californian could see a resurgence that must come soon he is too good for it not to. 10 places with Coral again but available at 125/1 and better all over we put him up at 2pts e/w.

Pick of the week now, and at 70/1 I have the hots from a betting point of view for BILLY HORSCHEL. He's out there with Tommy Fleetwood this week, and Billy does play well with good players and in company he warms to, he has game to find fairways, he knows how to plot his way, he has a good draw and I wanted him to turn up here this week and to see that early/late draw and his odds, it's just lined up in the stars. He plays tough courses well, the tree lines and shot shaping here is very Muirfield Village esque and he just fits. 3pts e/w on him.

Last but by no means least, and I did consider now skinny and absolute wank golfer Cam Young (another quid in the jar) for a shot at redemption, but there was a van outside with men in white jackets looking in, so I decided against it. In the end the final pick was obvious. For a spell last week I was getting a bit anxious as STEPHAN JAEGER shaped really well (and Spaun also needs a mention, I just know all regular readers were thinking oh no please don't with him). He fell away late Saturday, but if ever a player could drive the shit out of Innisbrook it's him and there is a bit of juice in his 45/1. Again that price and better is all over but I'm sticking with the main players and Coral are 10 places so we throw our final 4 pts each way, and we break the blog record of 8 picks and just 34pts invested.

Good luck everyone, and if you feel life is shit, watch the looks on these boys faces as they are playing one of the world's toughest tracks in howling winds.....ace!

TEWT