So we move on to major number 3, and my favourite major to watch in terms of entertainment, the US Open. The USGA tend to go hard (Chambers Bay, Shinnecock) then go soft on the players (watering Pebble and widening fairways at Winged foot and the pitiful Erin Hills). This tournament should be attritional, where only the best and the toughest survive, and I really hope they recover their appetite at Brookline in Boston this week. When you hear Brookline you think Justin Leonard's monster putt and Sam Torrence berating Tom Lehman as a supposed 'man of god' but that course will not be on show this week. I wont go into an indepth run down of the course many a story has been scribed in the past few weeks, but with just 2 par 5s (one which could easily be the toughest Par 5 in the world) a driveable par 4 and a 131 yard par 3 that are fraught with danger and a lot of Par 4.5s to small firm as 'gosh darn it' greens this could be anything from +4 to -4 as a winning score. If the wind blows it will be the former if it doesn't this beautiful old, natural course has teeth and sharp ones. Technology will be blunted and Dechambeau will be baffled so I'm looking for preparation and creativity - aligned with form and a resolute response to bad bounces and brutal lies (so that's John Rahm out).
Brookline Par 70 7,264 yards hasn't been seen at this profile since that fateful day the entire American team danced all over Oli's line in 99. My main line of thought in selecting this week is preparation. The players won't have seen anything like this since Brooks shot +1 in New York at Shinnecock and no amount of range play or competition golf can be enough prep in my opinion. As usual my second pick will contradict that but let's move on to pick number one, my favourite golfer (after the GOAT) Jordan Speith. That strange practise movement where he moves his hands high has given him room in his swing to bomb his driver and bomb it straight, so now his achilles heel is fixed he's one 2017 putting week away from winning his 4th Major. He's putted like a blind man this year, especially from inside 5 feet, even winning in Harbour Town with a cold wand, but he possesses the mind set and the all round game to win another 4 or 5 majors and if the greens get crusty and lies get gnarly he will be leading strokes gained between the ears. 5pts e/w 28/1 top 9 will do for me.
Pick number 2 comes bang in form so an obvious pick. However my rationale for backing Sam Burns this week lies in his short game. The way the greens crusted up at the Charles Schwab made it ridiculously difficult for the entire field, and despite moving through the field and posting a score, it was his short game that saved Par on 4 of his last 6 holes whilst others were saving bogey. This kid is the real deal and with 3 wins this year and a play off defeat of Scheffler he is massively overpriced if he can get enough homework in at 30/1. 4pts e/w 9 places.
It's not much of a tip at not great odds but I can't let Will Zalatoris go unbacked this week. If there is any need to explain why then maybe stick to reality TV. Unless you've been under a rock you will know this lad basically places every week he plays. I don't see him winning but I'll nick some place money at 28/1 8 places 3pts e/w.
2 weeks ago I was bullish about Webb Simpson and inexplicably he just dropped of a cliff on the weekend at Colonial, whilst trends suggested quite the opposite would happen. The putter and driver seemed back to their best though and he is just way too tasty at 90/1 8 places this week 2pts e/w.
So 2pts left and it's a major so the pen gets dropped on a 3 figure player by tradition. I toyed with Guido Migliozzi at 1000/1 just because he bombs it and played well in a low scoring week at the Belfry last year, but I'll be a bit more realistic and plump for Patrick Rodgers. He did play last week so that's not ideal but at 300/1 8 places 1pt e/w this college superstar who has been a mediocre pro has shown some signs of the ability which had him touted as the next big thing when turning pro 8 years ago. He's a brilliant putter so if he can get the ball on the short stuff 60%+ then he could place for some nice profit after a decent week in Toronto tied 18th.
Please take note of the extra place offers this week. As a rule betting should be about beating the bookies so if you are giving up 5 or 10 points for 13 places and your player wins you are giving the bookies your money back. If 8 or 9 places isn't enough then what is the point? Like cash outs, these 'bookies offers' are there to limit their own liabilities and drain the punters pockets, some weeks it won't work out but they have traders who are highly versed in point shaving and statistical analysis, so long term giving odds back only benefits them, these are not non profit organisations.
Enjoy the golf and let's keep the profits running.
In summary
Speith 5pts ew 28/1 Hills 9 Places
Burns 4pts ew 30/1 Hills 9 Places
Zalatoris 3pts ew 28/1 Bet365 8 Places
Simpson 2pts ew 90/1 Bet365 8 Places
Rodgers 1pt ew 300/1 Bet365 8 Places
