So this week we dust off the disappointment that is and was Will Gordon yesterday and move into the beautiful surroundings of Bermuda. The stunning vistas of Southampton in November aren't usually words in a sentence, but the Port Royal GC in Southampton is just that. This Bermudan beauty measures, 6,828 yards, a Par 71, and will sort those who will retain playing rights next year with those who won't.
After mis-judging the walk and length in Mexico last week, at least this week, the short, tree lined track, which suits all players and generally rewards excellent putting, is not an unknown quantity. After throwing away victory last year, former mortgage broker turned solid Pro golfer, Ben Griffin has been on my mind all year to come back and right his back 9 woes. A big no-no however is he is in and around that top 125 bubble, I don't like anyone playing for their cards this week at the front end of the market, and given he is 20-25/1 the value is absolutely woeful given that type of pressure. Taylor Pendrith holds the course record and is due, so he was on a short list, but again was way too short considering his mark on the bubble.
Adam Scott classes the joint up this week, and after a strong year putting he is a live chance, but short priced fav, so that's a no as well. The cash point that is Lucas Glover is nervously left off the list this week, even though he looked solid in his return but at 20's I haven't got the will of investment. Beyond the latterly named 2, this week we go for class, and 2 players who should be better than most of the rest in this field and then 2 live outsiders.
First up this week we have a punt on ALEX NOREN. The Swede started to show some of his old form in the summer, in and around the majors, with a top 10 in the Rocket Mortgages, 23rd at the Open, 13th the week after at the 3M and 3rd at the Shriners last month. He's safe for a card next year and he has played once here in 2019 with a 15th place finish. Although he is yet to win on tour he fits in all categories and is the best putter, statistically, in the field this week. He's 22/1 with Bet365 top 8 and we go 6pts e/w.
Next up we go with the potential, and the long overdue potential, of NICK HARDY. Hardy sprung from obscurity to a known quantity in the 2022 US Open where he was on the first page of the leaderboard for much of that week, just falling away late to a 14th place finish. He fared well again in this years US Open with a Top 20 finish and as well as his 23rd last week, he has a win on tour this year (in the Zurich Pairs with Davis Riley) and he is again safe by a long way for another year on tour. His stats are decidedly average, in the sense that he does nothing well and nothing badly, so with one good week on the Greens he is a HUGE price this week with Hills, 35/1 8 places and we go 4pts e/w.
Next up we go with former winner and autumnal expert ADAM LONG. Adam tends to take 6 months off at a time (form-wise) but when he gets that short stick going at towards the end of the year or start of it he is dangerous and capable of contending. Now I'm a hypocrite because he is outside the 125 and needs a strong week, but this former Desert Classic winner is trending on his stats and 35, 35, 23rd in the last 3 weeks. His iron play is looking sharp (something which can fail him) and if he can find surfaces, he holes a lot, so at 70/1 I'm happy with 3pts e/w with Hills.
Lastly we go into the territory of 2nd best price of the year (Brian Harman apart) and probably the best bet of the week. CAMILO VILLEGAS was so impressive last week, and this classy Columbian was a welcome returnee to a PGA leaderboard. The tragic passing of his daughter Mia in 2020 after 2 years of illness and injuries either side of this, have robbed him of those mid to late 30s prime years. He has 4 wins on tour between 2008 and 2014, and despite absolutely no form, he was bang in contention on the back 9 last week only to be undone by an emotional Van Royen shooting 63 for victory. His 66 wasn't exactly bad, and he is the kind of positive player and man that feeds off success, so I'm taking this to be a resurgence rather than a flash in the pan. In a field like this, off the back of a 2nd place finish, The bookies, for me, have got this all wrong and there is 100/1 all over for him, and we go 2pts e/w top 8 with Bet365 this week.
Summary below, good luck and only bet what you can afford to lose in any given week.
TEWT
In Summary:
Noren 22/1 Top 8 Bet365 6pts e/w
Hardy 35/1 Top 8 Hills 4pts e/w
Long 70/1 top 8 Hills 3pts e/w
Villegas 100/1 Top 8 Bet365 2pts e/w