So after a week of birdies, soft conditions massive fairways and receptive greens, let's hope I'm not wrong this week on the course. What a joke of a major, two 62s, a record scoring event for a major, and despite a good finish, that was a standard PGA tour event in all but name. The picks I was happy with, but I got the course wrong, and the ease of the course and lack of constant jeopardy just played into every players hands and made my thinking obsolete. Sounds like sour grapes, and to an extent it is, but picking the best drivers was not an advantage, as anyone could hit those fairways, what an utterly crap set up, and as usual the PGA championship underwhelms (and bear in mind I've backed Walker, Day, Thomas and Koepka so 4 winners in 10 years).
Well at least we have a decent layout this week, as we head to Colonial Country club, Fort Worth, Texas. The site of Grillo's epic win last season, this place yields some of the lowest aggregate scores on tour in the last 2 years, with 8 and 9 under winning in 2022 and 23. 7289 yards and a par 70, with two par 5s, the par 4s here are a headache for players, and razor accuracy tee to green is the key stat. The course has undergone a massive overhaul by Gil Hanse since last year, but the trees are still encroaching on fairways, no distance has been added, but mainly changes to drainage (to help the Bentgrass cool in stifling heat) and bringing water into play. The course has been stripped back to it's pre war layouts, which changes a couple of key holes bringing creeks and water into play and makes the par 3s more of a challenge with shot shaping, so this place should not be any easier, and it won't be as familiar.
Scottie, fresh from his porridge last week, starts a resounding favourite after going close here twice and at 3/1, as usual, he gives great value to the rest of the field, and the rest of the field is where our selections lie. 3 accurate players and in form players head the list, and the usual curve ball (but not really a curve ball) to complete the line up as we go with 4 selections and 30pts, to recoup the losses of last week.
First up, the trends have been good and course form aligns as we go with Californian cool man and gun player, MAX HOMA as our main selection. Max was high on every punters list this season, as an expected rise to greatness off the back of his Ryder cup brilliance and 2023 PGA tour performances seemed to beckon. A 9th place here last season on a track he doesn't often visit (just his 3rd appearance here with two other top 30s) was enough for me to trust he game for this test, and this season he has shone at the real ball striking events. 3rd in the Masters, 8th at Bayhill, 8th at the Wells Fargo, despite a slow start to the season puts him firmly in my mind, despite, strangely his driving stats being the main struggle this year. That can't continue for such a sweet swinging player, he does drive the ball well traditionally, and with no weaknesses in his game, he has the tools to match Scottie at his very best and is juicy AF this week at 20/1 with Hills so with 8 places we go 7pts e/w.
With the renovations here this week, course experience won't be such a huge requirement, and whilst he has been poor in the last 12 months, I am seeing shoots of recovery to lean me toward TOM KIM this week. Expectation, illness, last years wrist injury (probably due to trying to find extra distance) and form have all fed into a year of underachievement. He was not on my radar at all, but then last week, on a course that would not have suited him, he showed a resurgence in form and a better week putting, and when this lad finds his flow again he will contend. He will love it here, accuracy is needed, it won't be a birdie fest and on his debut here, I hope Colonial will suit his eye, and a love affair can start. At 50/1 with Hills he is great e/w value in my opinion and we go in at 4pts e/w 8 places.
Hills are best priced this week with most players, but this guy was so low down the pecking order I thought he had withdrawn. It was squeaky bum time (as I didnt pick him) for a while last week as MARK HUBBARD hit the front on Friday, on a course that wouldn't have suited him, but he does strike those 3 and 4 hybrids sweetly so his ball striking overcame his lack of power. Like Tom, that won't be an issue this week, Mark hasn't missed a cut this season so his game is in good shape, he just isn't having good Saturdays, but at an event where staying power, and limiting errors and big numbers, are key, I like him a lot. Somehow, he is 80/1 here, 9th last year and having never missed a cut at Colonial he is again priced favourably each way, so let's hope he brings his game here this week. 8 places again with Hills we are 2.5pts e/w.
At 100/1 it took so much for me to turn my back on Grillo this week, he loves it here, he won for us last year but his form since the Players is absolutely putrid. I toiled between Ryan Moore, Ben Kohles and last years nearly man Harry Hall, but in the end I had to go back to EMILIANO GRILLO after a lot of soul searching in the hope he would be inspired. He seems to have solved his putting woes (remembering he was 1st in putting here last year also) but his tee to green stats are very middle of the road in 2024 which is unusual. His form here is 1st, 63rd, 8th, MC, 19th, 3rd, 24th, 54th so it is feast or famine and at 110/1 8 places with Bet365 I'm willing to take that chance with 1.5pts e/w and he has earnt some loyalty.
Go well, keep the faith
TEWT