After another bloody second, and another unfathomable and shock winner on the PGA tour we dust ourselves off and head West from Florida to the Houston Open this week. Often a tournament that's main story is who will qualify for those remaining Masters spots, this week will be no different as 138 players go up against Wyndham Clark and Scottie too Hottie Scheffler.
Let's talk Cam Young. Destiny seemed sure to see him gain his first win late last night, as he and Malnati separated themselves from the field on the back 9, and as Young faced a 15ft birdie putt on 17, Malnati trudged towards a buried lie with the grass against him and at best a 50/50 chance to save par. Two mins later, relief from a sprinkler which saw him then able to drop on the fringe and putt, coupled with Young's putt just sliding by the right edge, saw fate swinging against him and us. On 18 a 3 putt and a Malnati drive up 18 getting a lie from the gods in the bunker and we were yet again denied a victory. I'm not sure how much longer the betting gods will punish us for 3 play off wins last season, but it is getting easier to form opinions on trends with a body of work and stats behind us, so we keep on topping up the points credits.
So a small profit again goes into this week as the Memorial Park Municipal golf course hosts it's 3rd Houston Open in a row now, and if I say the last two winners were Kokrak and Finau, those golf aficionados amongst you will know the stat for this week......DRIVING! This Par 70 , 7435 yard bombers track has two things to defend it. Wind (which we will have 3 days fri-sun with 15-20mph) and length. The likes of David Lipsky and Chez Revie will be putting plenty of fairway woods and hybrids in their bags this week, whilst my 4 selections will be tee it high and smashing it long all week.
A wide open track, if they keep the rough up to 2-3 inches this week, we could see another low score, but as much as I like that, this test is one of very low imagination, and this also helps with our main selection this week, as he has a brain a finch wouldn't swap with.
CAMERON CHAMP is big on ability, big on distance and low on thought. He is 100% fit again and after a good showing last week on a course they shouldn't have suited him, he comes squarely into our thoughts, especially as Augusta, a course he thrives at, looms on the horizon again. He loves the time of year, he loves bombing it and despite a filthy showing here last year when he was unhealthy, this is tailor made for him. His showing last year may have set his odds as high as they are, but at 80/1 8 places with Bet365 I'm loving the action and 3pts ew is great value given his 26th place last week!
A player who hits it long, who loves Bermuda and with form here in KIETH MITCHELL would have been 25/1 this week but for a final day from hell yesterday. He loves to set the ball left and fade it to the right but from hole one the big stick kept going left and an 18 hole torture for him ensued, but I don't think this will stop his form, and he was bang up for the fight last week. A blog regular, I love his profile and his game, at 35/1 I'm 4pts ew in the action with Bet365 8 places again.
Next up 2 factors come into play for a guy who is making his TEWT debut. A star name because of a Netflix documentary, season 1 couldn't have been more off putting for his reputation as a winner. A great guy yes, but a weak minded frat boy is not the profile for a great golfer. However, seeing his interaction with his caddie and his desire to change his life and fortunes around on season 2, JOEL DAHMEN showed me something. He has always been some mental toughness and hard work away from being a top tier player, he has appeared on many a major leaderboard over the years. He has reportedly been working harder than ever, he has a 5th and a 9th on his Memorial Park CV, and despite not having the length to suit here, he is in form. 11th at the players and a surprising mid-field performance last week (49th) he is a good putting week away from contending (he is 8th on tour Tee to Green SG and 174th in putting). He is a little short on odds this week, but in the absence of Charley Hoffman he was the next cab on the rank, and during a season of shocks and story lines, maybe Joel is the next story. He is 60/1 with Bet365 8 places and again we invest 3pts ew.
Last but by no means least we ended up with a toss up between 2 main protagonists. Priced at 11/1 Wyndham Clark could be a bet to nothing, but given the investment needed I'm taking the better odds on SAHITH THEEGALA. There is a slight caveat to this though, as the investment is boosted on price by taking just 3 places. A long hitter, but slightly wild driver, Sahith is dripping in talent, star quality and performances on the biggest stage. His one win on tour will soon become 2 and soon become 10, he is that good, and given his strength I fancy he can overcome the rough he may hit quite often and take this place apart. A 22nd last year he took 7 rounds to understand that the only way to play was to all out attack. 7 rounds in the 70s was then met with a final round 64 last year. 2 players shot a 66 that day but most of the field were over par, he knows how to win and I love that last round where the penny dropped at long last. He and Finau are the 2 players in this field with the ability to mix it with peak Scottie and Wyndham and at 30/1 3 places with Bet365 I'm 5pts e/w. 8 places you are looking at 18/1, and I'm not willing to take such short odds on a guy I feel will go very very close - I personally did the same with Cam Young last week and got a huge price boost because of it.
The health warning is 3/1 fav Scottie Scheffler, he is getting into the Tiger realm of being the player to beat, but his form here isn't great and he is way too short for me to play, especially when we can yield better each way returns for smaller stakes with all bar 1 player in the field.
Full prices aren't published as yet, so any change in value this evening will be represented in an edit so look out for that, but these early prices on Champ and Mitchell won't get bigger.
Keep the faith TEWT