So this week's preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational starts before the Honda ends (Cognizent classic at Palm Beaches my arse). As I await to see what Shane does, after 3 holes of woeful putting last night after the thunder and lightning at PGA national, the prep is finalised this week for an event that is easier to study than usual. I've played the course, I may have mentioned I finished double, double to shoot a disappointing but on reflection decent 79 here, but every hole is embedded in the minds eye, and also every Championship tee that I looked back at in amazement from about 30yards closer. For me, my eye tells me it's all about driving and putting. If you are out of position here there is no chance. The rough is usually 2-4inches, fairways are narrow and despite the rain making things easier this year, hopefully it is still a test that sees single digits winning most years.
Bay Hill, Arnold's place, par 72, 7,466 yards of narrow fairways, hazards and lightning greens, with the winning score being below 10under par for 3 of the last 4 years expect a real test. The rain will blunt the test slightly, and although the key stat on paper looks to be strokes gained approach, that is only relevant with accuracy from the tee. Every metric this week, form round here, putting on Bermuda, driving distance and driving accuracy all feeds into Rory, and when it is wet he is hot. He's crazy short this week, so although I think he is the most obvious winner, it won't be a play from me. Victor is a player who I like here, but his early form is shocking. Scottie cant win anything putting so badly, and the likes of Schauffelle and Cantlay just don't win enough, and barely at all, so the value is in the middle of the market.
First up, like at the St Jude in 2022, I have a huge feeling for WILL ZALATORIS. A phenomenal player, talent and winner, I don't think and certainly can't remember a player coming back from injury, with swing changes (improvements brought about by his back issues) in such fine fettle. His tee to green prowess just picked up where it left off, he has a solid short game, a great mind, course form (3 cuts made in 3 appearances and a 10th in 2021) and class to win any event, anywhere. His short putting visuals, are horseshit, something for the birds, that don't play out in his stats, and since moving to the long putter I don't see any loss or gain in that department, he is and always has been a solid putter (around 100th ranked year in year out which is mid-field) and when it is tough he is especially brilliant. He is 30/1 with Hill 7 Places this week, and 5pts e/w.
Next up and it is more of the same........as it's CAM YOUNG. He may appear to be a cliff horse as far as winning goes, with no wins on tour yet and a shit load of 2nds, but it is only a matter of time. Another player like Will who has everything, every shot and few weaknesses, and when it is tough he is a man to be relied on to go close. He played well an hour up the road last week at PGA National to finish 4th, he drives the ball like god, he is another solid putter, not a strength or a weakness, and his game screams this place. With an 8th and 16th finish in Phoenix and Riv, the New Yorker moves onto Bermuda he loves so much, and with a 10th and 13th in his 2 appearances here I love him for this week, so much that I couldn't split him or Will. The bookies are in agreement, and Paddy Power are offering 28/1 7 places this week and we are 6pts e/w again.
You have to be good tee to green on most courses, but when it is tough, especially so. Canada's answer to Scottie Scheffler (albeit a poor man's Scottie) is COREY CONNORS and boy does he love it here. So far this season he has made all 6 cuts, and despite finishing mid-field he is being held back by his putting. This is nothing new, when he putts well he wins or is placed and although that is a big if and rare, his form here reads 21st, 10th and 3rd in his last 3 visits. He is top 20 in all SG main metrics barring Putting and is a major player. Some idiot at 888 has contrived to put him up at 60/1 this week 7 places, so get on quick whilst that lasts, 3 points this week e/w.
Before the last serious pick, I have to invest a point e/w on the Fin SAMI VALIMAKI. After coming 2nd to Jake Knapp in Mexico, Sami had that bounce factor last week and started out with a 4 over par 75 giving him very little chance at PGA National. His fighting spirit and ability were really on show however on the Friday, and but for a poor swing on the 17th he was right on the cut line, eventually missing a chance on 18 to make the cut, but showing lots of potential. Again, it's a smaller field, at 200/1 with Hills he has to be worth that 1pt e/w investment this week, especially as he drives the ball so sweetly and so long.
Last but by no means least it's our old friend and foe, and Florida resident PATRICK RODGERS. By no metric should he be a fancy other than talent and form. Possibly the most wasted talent on tour, a college superstar he was tipped for big things when turning pro in 2014. He is local to the course, he loves Bermuda greens, he is a stellar driver of a golf ball, he finished 7th here in 2018 and his form this season, is the best of his career, with 2 top 10s, a 14th and 24th and only 1 missed cut in 6 starts. He would not be on many people's list, but with 7 places (a tenth of the field size) he is value at 125/1 with Paddy Power and we invest 2pts e/w.
One final quick punt on offer this week, as the second tier event on the PGA tour this week, heads to Puerta Rico. In short, and he is short (and fat), there is nothing to like about TED POTTER JNR other than his win at Pebble years ago, and his form at Rio Grande (59, MC, 7, 6, 29, 48) so his odds jump out. As far as winners this week, the selection 2 weeks ago who unfortunately withdrew in Mexico, CHRIS GOTTERUP is the obvious winner, as the best ball striker in the field and with course form in his amateur days. However with funds limiting bets, we go 0.5pts e/w on Potter with Betway 750/1 7 places (1000/1 in places), and 2pts WIN ONLY on Gotterup at 24/1 with Bet365.
37 points investment this week, go well.
