When you're hot you're hot. Viktor Hovland brought up the 3 in a row on Sunday, which winning aside, was an absolutely mesmerising watch at Muirfield Village. Hovland will be on the shortlist at LA Country club for sure, and like Koepka, I really do have a thing for guys who go close weeks before. Vik has it all, and what was so impressive was the way he attacked 17 on sunday. Nobody birdied it all day until the Hov got pulses racing with a 3 ensuring his chances were live not remote. What a watch and what a character that lad is, 2 under for the last 4 holes whilst all other blokes were in bits. He may have been born in Norway but he has been made in America and boy are the Europeans lucky to have him in Italy this year. Superstar.
So 20/1, 80/1 and now 18/1 winners in successive weeks have me riding the crest of a wave but the systems remain and the stakes stay the same as we head over to Toronto this week for the RBC Canadian open with Rory looking for a Turkey of his own, rather than the dead duck he has been playing like since April.
I'm ignoring the head of the market as usual this week in Toronto, but this is a muddling week as we visit Oakdale country club for the first time on tour. A par 72, 7264 tree lined layout may have us seeing similarities to St George's where Rory won last year but also we have a week of small greens which hopefully are the defence of this tale of two 9s (the back 9 being 400 yards shorter). So the history of feeling happy crossing the Northern border, tee to green prowess and current form all go into the melting pot.
First up this week is a really strong feeling for SHANE LOWRY (yes that is him in 2010 at the KLM open)
. Shane has a strong form line in Canada, 12th, 2nd and 10th in the last 3 showings, he loves to shape the ball and he obviously loves the bent grass up North. This season he has two top 20s in the majors, a 5th at the Honda and 16th past week at the memorial despite a couple of disastrous holes. He is trending, he drives the ball superbly well and tee to green he is so strong, with possibly the best short game on tour. If the putter has a Grillo style resurrection then the 20/1, 8 places with Hills this week could be huge and I'm 7pts each way.
Next up I'm usually stupid enough to back a Canadian for this, so here's presenting NICK TAYLOR. Nick is a real favourite of mine, for no other reason than he looks the part. He is a two time winner on tour but the slight worry here is he likes Open layouts. He has a 2nd in Phoenix, 7th at the Sony and 6th at the Fortinet in traditionally low scoring tracks with large greens. It's a bit of a punt, especially given his showing at the Charles Schwab, but he stands 32nd in the Fedex and he's top 50 on tour tee to green and approach. At 66/1 on Betfair 8 places I'm happy to bet on a decent driving week and I'm 3pts each way invested.
Recency bias comes into the next pick.
******LUKE LIST has been one of the world's best drivers of a golf ball for years. He blows very hot and cold but he is dripping in ability. After last week Speith, Henley and List all went on the radar after being right there SG in approach last week on brutally difficult greens. With the other 2 missing and Hills offering 90/1 (other bookmakers are offering 100s) I'm 2pts each way backing a place top 8. PLEASE NOTE LIST HAS WITHDRAWN 06.06.23*******
In List's place I'm taking a punt on a record breaker this week. LUDVIG ABERG is the first player to be awarded a PGA tour card for topping the University rankings, and after a stellar Collegiate record he enters his first tour event this week. He has a University/Collegiate record that mirrors Scheffler and only Rahm has achieved back to back Big 12 events in it's history. In retaining the title he smashed Rickie Fowler's 15 year scoring record by 6 shots! He has won 8 times in the last year, and most impressively of all he finished 24th at Bayhill this year after an amateur invite from the tournament - in an elevated event!! The bookies are rightly scared of the potential and the 23year old Swede has no real game weaknesses, and mental strength in droves. So the 2pts each way left goes on him at 66/1 with Skybet 8 places.
It's a speculative week this week given those at the top of the market will have one eye on the US Open at LACC next week, so the last 2 biggies are place bets again. After Mark Hubbard gave us some entertainment last week, we go in big on a previous pick in DAVIS THOMPSON. This rookie started his maiden PGA tour season like a train but has since faltered. However he is a prolific driver of a golf ball and maybe with everyone playing here for the first time, the world number 88 can use his 15th best on tour driving ability to good effect. He's 200/1 top 8 with Skybet so I'm hoping they have to pay me out again! 1pt each way top 8.
Last but by no means least I've been waiting for a sight of SAM BENNETT since his showing at the Masters this year where he finished 16th. He made his PGA tour debut last week and was absolutely awesome for 3 rounds and went into the last round at even par and inside the top 20. The fact he went on to shoot a 12 over par 84 doesnt put me off. It's a good intro to professional golf and any player who can play like that at Augusta on his first visit is someone to watch and Hills are 200/1 8 places and I don't think he will be that too many more times in his career so he gets 2 whole points each way.
I really should have just gone Burns and Lowry this week for a 4 timer, but we stick to the system and let's hope Shane does the business.
In summary (all 8 places)
Lowry 20/1 7pts ew Hills
Taylor 66/1 3pts ew Betfair
List 90/1 2pts ew Hills
Thompson 200/1 1pt ew Skybet
Bennett 200/1 2pts ew Hills.
TEWT