Bayhill, the home of the late and truly great Arnold Palmer, this weeks destination for the PGA tour attended this week by 44 of the world's top 50. This is where it gets serious on tour, and what an iconic place to lead such a stellar field and draw us towards the Players the week after. Famous for many things such as, Arnold Palmer, a great rib-eye steak, and an unforgettable 79 shot by yours truly despite back to back double bogeys on 17 and 18 (sorry I had to). Scores in recent years have been 5 under, 11 under and 4 under, and hopefully a week of sun will have the course showing it's teeth again this week, with firm and fast conditions. A few of us were there in November and our caddie told us that the rough could be as high as 9 inches in the secondary, and given that water is staring at you most of the way round, bail outs could be fraught with danger. Let's hope it's a true test this week, if so it could be one of the tournaments of the year. (disclaimer if they water the greens it ruins all predictions).
Last week at the Honda proved to be a great finish with Chris Kirk drawing his way to a play off victory. The course really set up for his draw (I don't think even his car turns right) and he putted beautifully for an exciting win. Playing better than anyone tee to green, Shane Lowry gave us a break even week, despite being 64th of the 67 who made the cut with the flat stick. He holed next to nothing, but I'm not giving up on him, he's right in the Sawgrass mix up a week on Thursday.
So Bayhill, Par 72, 7466 yards, is framed by water, bunkers and deep rough, and if they can get the greens firm it is a brutal test. It's not always a week where putting is as important as the birdie fests, and the lightning greens may mean lag putting rather than holing out is a key stat. With such a stellar field I do think the chances of picking a winner that isn't Scheffler, Rahm or Mcilroy may be difficult so I'm going for place money first and the win 2nd. That's not to say we can't bag a winner but I'm spreading my points across 5 players this week. I would put Mcilroy up if the rain came, but I don't think it will, so let's see if we can get the top 3 beat.
First up is no surprise, the only surprise is that he has played so well in the West Coast thus far. Florida specialist KEITH MITCHELL is one of the form players of the season. He has an old fashioned swing, an old fashioned dress sense, but a new age game that suits most courses. He isn't the strongest putter on tour, but he loves Bermuda greens and like Lowry, Thomas, Morikawa et al an average week on the greens means a strong finish given his ball striking. Statistically the best driver on tour currently Keith comes into his own this time of year, and he didn't go to the venue where his only tour win is last week, which shows how serious he is preparing for the Florida swing. Given the strength of the field he is a juicy 55/1 this week with Hills and I'm 3 points e/w expecting a strong showing for the man from Tennessee.
Next up is a blog favourite from last year CAM YOUNG. Cam is the nearly man after winning rookie of the year 2 years ago. He took some time off over the winter and has been shaking off the rust on the PGA tour in between another 2nd in Asia. Cam has the game and some great stats to show off, which trend him nicely this week. He is 2nd in driving distance, 1st in approach play 150-175 yards (which you will see a lot of this week) and right up there in scrambling stats. I think he and the next pick are the kind of 2nd tier player that can mix it with the big boys, he's one of the only top level putters I seem to put up and I'm 4pts e/w at a jaw dropping 45/1 top 8 with Hills for this major elect winner to make his next step.
Another top player, another great rookie and a winner of the Fed-Ex St Jude and Major runner up, is the mercurial WILL ZALATORIS. He was strongly put up last year to win his first event, in the play offs, and he duly obliged. He is a tremendous ball striker, he putts brilliantly from range, and despite seeing him miss a shorty at the Genesis 2 weeks ago, putts a lot better from close range than his yippy putting style suggests. Will, like Cam is the next in line to join the big boys in the top 10 and win multiple times. He has it all, and his temperament for the big occasion, coupled with his love of lightning greens make him very appealling. I toyed with other players at bigger odds, but Will shook off his rustiness from his 2nd round 77 at the Farmers, with a very tidy 4th place in the Genesis, and he will be thereabouts this week mark my words! I'm 5pts e/w at 22/1 with Skybet.
The biggy this week is quite an interesting one. ADAM SVENSSON is a winner on tour this season (RSM Classic), he's 11th in the Fedex Standings and on the precipice of breaking into the world's top 50. 9th at the Genesis and an average week at the Honda last week with a couldn't be arsed 74 in the last round, Svensson has established himself as a brilliant long Iron player and a streaky putter. Whilst he isn't a known quantity like Adam Hadwin or Corey Connors, he is one of a few Canadians who are bang there week in week out as established tour players, and at 200/1 he was just too big to ignore, 1pt e/w Skybet.
Last but by no means least, our final pick is a bloke who could have been a baseball player, a basketball player, an NFL player, but he chose to play golf in the sun, and his Major at the US Open at Pebble gave him the top flight win his ridiculous talent deserved. GARY WOODLAND can do everything (apart from Putt consistently). I do wonder at times whether he is truly motivated in some events, but these rated events on tour now put a real edge on them, and if it's firm, fast, tough and competitive my thoughts are that Gary get's stoked up and ready for the battle. He had a top 10 at the Genesis recently and last year he entered the Florida swing with two 5th place finishes at the Honda and then here, That 5th here last year was his first appearance here since missing the cut in 2016, so clearly he didn't feel he fit into his game before that, but again, the hope it is firm and fast will put him as a strong fancy this week, he's top class Tee to Green and at a whopping 80/1, 8 places with Skybet I'm 2pts e/w, it's another, hope he doesn't Putt like a twat pick from the thief.
I'm going to put the Profit/Loss (more profit than loss obviously) up this week, I do like the place money and we are more than treading water, the belief in the system is stronger than ever, so these small profit weeks just build up to the next win and I think it's close. I love the selections this week, let's all pray Scheffler and Rahm stop playing like god!
In summary (for those who just scroll to the bottom because they are lazy or find me boring):
Will Zalatoris 5pts e/w 22/1 Skybet 8 places
Cam Young 4pts e/w 35/1 Hills 8 places
Keith Mitchell 3pts e/w 55/1 Hills 8 places
Gary Woodland 2pts e/w 80/1 Skybet 8 places
Adam Svenssom 1pt e/w 200/1 Skybet 8 places
TEWT