Hollywood, LA Country Club, a beautiful property set within the cesspit, nay, the arse end of the world. Players travel to California this week, and are all set for the biggest test of the year overlooking the Hollywood Hills. The good and the great will be in attendance (the golfing good and great not those pious Celebrity types), and boy are they in for a treat, a test, and for many, 36-72 holes of pure golfing torture, thanks to Gil Hanse and his renovation, along with a broken lawnmower.
Shall we talk about last week? I mean back to back wins are good, 3 in a row is almost unheard of, but with a keen eye and a shit load of luck Nick Taylor made it 4 from 4. He played 54 holes like the Champion he is, culminating in a 72 foot monster putt for the win on the 4th Play off hole, against Tommy Fleetwood, who once again failed to get the win on his 120th PGA tour start, much to the consternation of the Sky Sports team who were utterly pathetic again, their coverage gets worse, where do they drag these dullards from (Simon Holmes gets a pass tbf)? No player had ever won a tournament after being 120th or worse in the field after round 1, and at one stage Taylor was 4 over par on Thursday. He shot 20 under par for 54 holes, and as I predicted to a few readers on Sunday before he started, he would not choke, he just doesn't. I didn't think he would win, but I was absolutely certain he would take it deep, and I was so pleased for him, for all the Canadian boys watching and for Adam Hadwin who got absolutely mauled by security and has trolled himself on twitter brilliantly since!
So what's gone is gone, and 4 wins in 4 weeks is crazy, but let's be greedy and go for 5, and with a 40 point major investment this week (as is the usual model for Majors)
Gil Hanse's renovation has taken LA CC back to it's original layout. In 2010 the North Course was overhauled taking the course back to it's original George Thomas design dating back to 1923. Old greens were found, bunkering was taken back to it's origins and what we are left with are wide 'looking' fairways that slope dramatically making them smaller than the eye would tell you - the ones the players can actually see from the tee that is. Rough you could lose a fat bird in, barranca areas which are dry right now but will prove very difficult to play from and fiendishly small targets, huge run offs and the joy of chipping and pitching back from Bermuda which will swallow balls whole. It's a Par 70 7243yards, there are 5 par 3s ranging from 90 yards to 290 yards. I've seen recent criticism of the length of 2 of the par 3s, which usually I would support, but as a test I guarantee the scoring average on the 7th and 11th which can both stretch out to almost 300 yards will be less than that on the 15th which I guess will play 80-90 yards on at least one of the days if they set it up properly. Yes the long par 3s aren't anywhere near as exciting as the short ones, but this is a test, and this test, this week, is as it was designed, and you cannot argue with history. This isn't Chambers bay, this isn't a tricked up course, this is an array of blind tee shots, tiny greens within greens and hole lengths that the designer saw a century ago, boy we are in for treat.
So depending on how firm they make the greens over the weekend, the expectation (or at least mine) is that between 2 and 5 under will win this week, and when it becomes sheer attrition and survival of the fittest, the cream does rise up. This week is no different and I can't see anything other than a Scheffler, Rahm or Koepka win on a normal week, but Major's throw up more than that and the headline act this week is price based.
JUSTIN THOMAS has putted like Lou Gehrig for 12 months now, his flat stick has been appalling and up until recently this has put pressure on his wedge play, which is very un JT like. He's the best wedge and short iron player on the planet in my opinion, and the pressure to stick the ball to 3 feet rather than 8-10 feet with his lofted clubs seemed to have got to him for the first 4 months of the season. In recent times we have seen an uplift in his numbers and even though that beautiful Scottie Cameron hasn't been behaving, I never thought I'd see the day where you could get 40/1!!!!!! Paddy Power are putting up JT at 40s this week, with 10 places. When courses get this tough, he has less pressure to make birdies than usual events, and he has the mindset to stay the course and the hands to play from that awful sticky bermuda. If he can get off to a solid start, maybe shooting a 72 on day one, then I can't see him outside the places and we go 5pts e/w, 10 places, Paddy Power, 40/1.
Next up we go to our biggest points investment on the blog. It's not a clever pick, it's not inventive, but given Rahm's inconsistency, Scheffler's yips with the putter and Mcilroy's mental state (although I think Rory could go close) it leaves BROOKS KOEPKA top of the list and top of the tree given it's a major. He has no weaknesses, he's fit again, and he has that gun slinging swagger about him, back to the 2017/2018 days where he was unbeatable in these events for 2 years. The guy is world class, he's bang ready and he's 5 shot's in front before teeing off between the ears, so at a skinny 10/1, we invest 10 points e/w with Hills for 10 places. It really is a no brainer.
So with only 10pts (5pts e/w) to play with we go onto pick number 3, and he was the first pick for me, and 3 weeks ago I was waiting for his price to come out. It's a ball striking week this week, THE stat of the week will be approach play, and strokes gained (SG) in approach will be critical in getting round here only lightly maimed by LA. Luckily one of the best iron players in the game, is very much in the Nick Taylor mode, in that he doesn't contend all that often, but when he does he is not afraid to win. 4 time PGA tour winner RUSSELL HENLEY is usually top 10 in approach stats on tour. amazingly this year he is 60th, which is as a result of a poor run after his win in Mayakoba earlier in the year. He is a streaky putter, who when hot, can put it all together for 4 days. His recent results on tour scream consistent, and with a confidence player of this ilk, with that winning mentality I'm very excited about his chances. His run since March is 53rd, 19th, 17th 4th, 19th, 19th MC, 16th, 16th and he is a whopping 100/1 with Hills, 10 places. We go 2pts e/w with him this week. I like him a lot for a place.
Two more to go and we head to a Ryder Cup certainty and a rarity in that he's a cool Frenchman. VICTOR PEREZ is a multiple winner on the DP Tour (6 times when that tour was stronger) and he has recently migrated across the pond to events in the US to get a PGA Tour card. He is a prolific player in regards to hitting greens in regulation, he is a brilliant putter and given his 12th place at the PGA he is finding his feet on the big stage. His ball striking, his demeanour and his price are all very appealling, and he is 200/1 BET365 (each way extra) and 2pts e/w 8 places.
Last up we go a wee bit mental. ADAM SVENSSON is a premium rate Tesco finest ball striker, with a Tesco value in the reduced past sell by date putter. The biggest compliment I can pay him is that he joins Lucas Glover (who missed an 18" putt to qualify for this week - last Monday) in being so good at hitting the ball from tee to green, that he has won on tour (this year), despite being as bad a putter as you could wish to see play the game. He won the RSM this year, and critically he played well at Riv, not far from here, on a tricky layout with similar pitfalls, to come 9th. He could stay the course this week with his ball striking, he could pinch a place, it's ifs ands buts and maybes but it's 500/1 and he is 1pt each way to round things off with Skybet.
So there we have it, enjoy the week, revel in watching Tour Pros suffer, play Dame Laura Davis bingo as she states the blatantly obvious for 4 days and book Monday morning off work as it will be a 2am finish due to the timezones in that Woke cesspit, but even I can't blame the Californian governor for that.
Finally, stick to the system everyone. Don't dip in and out, don't stray from the points system then wonder why your profits aren't the same as mine, and always bet responsibly. We are picking the bookies pockets, for fooks sake don't give them it back. Keep stakes low, to what you can afford, because there will be spells where it doesn't go to plan. Be a Thief, bash the algorithm, and gloat whilst all those around you are sharing betting slips of 7/4 favourites, knowing full well they will eventually do their brains without discipline (trust me I've been there).
In Summary
Justin Thomas 40/1 5pts e/w Paddy Power 10 places
Brooks Koepka 10/1 10pts e/w Paddy Power 10 places
Russel Henley 100/1 2pts e/w Hills 10 places
Victor Perez 200/1 2pts e/w Bet365 each way extra 8 places
Adam Svensson 500/1 1pt e/w Skybet 8 places
TEWT
