The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the event that starts the count down to the Players, the Masters and the jewels of a warm golfing season. In an event where I have put up Vaughn Taylor many years ago, anything is possible. I love this event because it's at Pebble and I hate it because I have to sit through 3 days of Bill Murray, Ray Romano and Condelisa Rice (I don't care if that is spelt wrong). Even worse in recent times, is watching the original 'uncle nob head' Justin Rose, pretending he is anything other thana geek with hay fever, high fiving his way around 3 courses with Justin Timberlake. This year, to boot, we will have Gareth Bale shaped gruel shovelled down our necks, it is tiresome, but if you can keep your stomach contents down watching these so called famous wankers, then there are pearls of professionals playing Pebble beach, Monterey and Spyglass before a 54 hole cut. The final 18 holes round pebble are where it gets interesting so all roads lead to Sunday. Monterey is generally the easiest layout, then Pebble with the highest scoring generally at the tight and longer Spyglass Hill, but with weather set to be chilly and mild with no wind, there is no draw bias to worry about so at least it's a level playing field.
Let's do this in a Guy Ritchie style (without blithering out some cockney drivel), we go back to last week before talking about this. In a week where I was riddled with flu, my ailments were not helped by Collin Morikawa, who somehow managed to finish 3rd despite putting like he had Lou Gehrig's disease. His game is so sharp, it's probably a good thing he can't putt or it wouldn't be fair! So clever d*ck here decides to put Max Homa up as his player for this season and hasn't backed him for either win. I don't like putting 2 shorties up in the same week, but once he got a sniff, Homa hosed up. As frustrating as that is for my bank balance, I just love watching him play, hearing him speak, and watching his twitter, if I could have a pint with anyone on tour it would be Max, he's a proper bloke, and a proper player. A nice profitable week was many thanks to Keegan Bradley. At 60s he was a stand out bet for me, his ball striking is top 10 in the world, and with him leading the putting stats last week, he just left himself too much to do to win on the last day falling 2 shots shy, but when the wind blows he is one for every short list. I love to see him do well, after his livelihood was almost ruined by the ridiculous anchoring rule that came in years ago he has come to grips (pardon the pun) with the short putter having learnt to putt with the long putter from a young age. In summary, a week to level out 2023 stakes, giving us a firm footing to get ahead and stay ahead for 2023.
So this week sees short accurate play rewarded with some good lag putting and short putting (holing out in the trade) on undulating greens. A poor putter just cannot win at this event (or better stated a poor putting performance and with Speith heading the market there is some great value to be had, especially as he has 1 in every 2 round as an absolute shocker at the minute.
4 selections this week and in order in which I picked them out I will start with the outrageous one. Now I pick this guy every year for this event, and each year there is another 100 on his price, so at 500/1 this week I'll be playing house money on KELLY KRAFT. Kraft won a US amateur in 2011 at Erin Hills beating Patrick Cantlay, and has gone on to a distinctly average PGA tour career that has shown occasional glimpses of god like putting (for dog like putting see C Morikawa). He was a runner up to Speith here in 2017, and despite having troubles keeping the ball on the planet, I'll be looking out to see if he can hit a few greens in an event he plays each year. He's missed 4 cuts out of the last 5 (and still sits at 8th in SG Putting stats), but he's in practise and he likes Poana greens so in for a penny in for 1 point each way 500/1 top 8 Sky Bet.
Next up is a guy I have been waiting to put up after showing a return to form at the Sony. He then went on to miss the cut at 8 UNDER!!!!!! in the mind numbingly dull Amex. If approach play and putting are the name of the game then BRENDON TODD is always on the radar. I honestly expected him to be 33s or 40s this week in an average field, he has had an inconsistent year for him, but on courses where his lack of length off the tee don't hurt him, Todd contends. He is 47th SG Approach and 33rd SG Putting playing below par, so there is so much improvement in him, I'm just hoping whoever the rich farmer he is partnering this week doesn't spoil his chances. At 70/1 (that isn't a typo) I'm 3pts each way and bullish about this one, top 8 Skybet.
So 11 points to play with on 2 players but at shorter odds I'm going 6 on one and 5 on the other to pick some place money (maybe another 2 - 3 finish this week). For the 3rd time this season I'm putting up last years winner TOM HOGE. His putting isn't great so that's one contradiction, but he is probably the 3rd best player in the world with his irons right now (ranked one in stats) and even at a skinny 18/1 I'm 6 points each way top 8 Skybet, in the hope that he putts like he did here last year.
So 5 points each way left in my pocket and I'm just going on instinct on this and not stats. The steady player and mercurial putter that is DENNY MCCARTHY is value in a field like this. He doesn't make many mistakes, so I'm going with the angle that he hits plenty of greens this week and he will make plenty of putts so an unscientific hunch of 5pts each way 35/1 top 8 with Skybet rounds things off nicely.
Just a note that Fitzpatrick is a worthy favourite this week, at 9/1 it's not the play for this blog, but depending on who he has to walk round with (imagine Billy Foster with Bill Murray) it just isn't a straightforward event to go in so short....but he is the man on his last 12 months form.
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Good luck, with the bets and with suffering the Amateurs.
In summary
Tom Hoge 6pts e/w 18/1 top 8 Skybet
Denny McCarthy 5pts e/w 35/1 top 8 Skybet
Brendon Todd 3pts e/w 70/1 top 8 Skybet
Kelly Kraft 1pt e/w 500/1 top 8 Skybet