The real seasonal start for 2024 starts in Hawaii this week as 59 players go to Kapalua for some crash bang scenic birdie golf this week. An utterly feeble test of nothingness greets the top PGA tour players this week, and despite some rain and a tiny bit of breeze, another winning score in the mid 20 unders will win.
The last 3 winning scores here have been 27, 33 and 25 under par, and the key stat for the week will be strokes gained on approach (other than the obvious putting), so the best iron players for the week will be at the top. On a track where you can hit it almost anywhere off the tee, judging the elevations on approach and a knowledge of the course are factors, so experience is also in my thinking.
A stellar year last year for the blog enabled many followers to make some good money, and especially those who followed week in week out, with the selected players, it was nice to hear from so many people picking up some big wins. Please subscribe for email alerts for these posts so you don't miss anything, it costs nothing, and no ads will come your way.......if you miss a week, or give up after a few dry weeks, or pick 2 out of 4 selections etc etc then you cannot make the returns I'm offering on a plate. Nothing ever lasts forever, and it is a certainty that last year cannot be matched, as my results were probably the best on the planet, and for free info what more can you ask for, but let's beat the fractions and the bookies. To quote the Pet Shop boys, you've got the looks, I've got the brains, let's make lots of money.
Kapalua Plantation course is just shy of 7600 yards and a par 73 (yes that isn't a typo). A mix of long holes and short holes and silky smooth Bermuda Greens will provide a test of patience this week, as players will have to struggle with not making birdie on every hole, despite the expectation to do so. As followers will know, I don't like birdie fests, it makes selecting much harder, but I'm going with some ropey putters from 2023 and 3 players, 2 of whom I expect a return to the top table this year after a 2023 to forget.
One player who didn't have a poor 2023 is first up though, and the biggest price of the week is the talented SAHITH THEEGALA. A wild man off the tee, his accuracy with driver will not be tested this week. He played bang average last year after a strong opening 67, but it was his first visit here, so second time should be a charm, and this sweet swinging Californian is made for this layout. he is 66/1 6 places with Hills and and we go straight in with 3pts e/w.
Next up it's a short price for the blog but a course specialist, one of my favourite players, and along with Scottie Scheffler (who at short odds could win this by 10 this week) the best iron player in the game. After finally abandoning the draw hitting experiment, COLLIN MORIKAWA found his swing, his shot shape and his mojo in the 2nd half of 2023, and despite some putting woes, he made 4 top tens in his last 7 events, losing a play off to Rickie Fowler in the Rocket Mortgages and winning the Zozo. He threw away a huge lead on Sunday to John Rahm last year, but that doesn't bother me as he served his time in recovery for a few months after, so those scars are gone. His last 3 visits here have been 26, 25 and 25 under, and in his 4 visits to the track he has never finished outside the top 7 (7th on debut). All roads lead to him going close, and despite the skinny 12/1 odds, I'm going 8 points e/w with Betfred (as they offer 1/4 odds a place rather than 1/5th), 5 places.
Last but by no means least CAM YOUNG had an annus horribilis in 2023. Putting woes and swing changes really halted a good start to the season. Off the back of a 7 weeks break he burst into the year with two low events here 19 under and the Amex 18 under the week after. His debut 13th place here last year showed he took a liking to the course, and although his length and accuracy doesn't separate him from the field here like it would a Riviera or Muirfield, he has all the tools if near his old form, to be a factor this week. That can be said for quite a few who didn't make the cut this week, Finau, Bradley, Tom Kim, Day, but at his odds he just beat Keegan into the last pick, as his Bermuda Greens stats and course form is better. We go 45/1 this week with Bet 365, 5 places, 4 points e/w.
Again please subscribe to the channel, I won't always post this on social media this year.
Here's to 2024, and here's to hoping Bet 365 keep my account open, and wishing everyone at Skybet a thoroughly miserable 2024!
TEWT