The Masters. The only event in Golf where my world stops for 4 days. There is nothing like it, a place I will go one day but sadly never be able to play. 88 players line up for this years event and surprisingly I have found this year easy to nail down my 4 picks (plus 3 stupid £1e/w's at the end). It's been a frustrating last 3 events for the blog but this is where the blog began and this is where the profits come back. I actually don't need as long a blog this week because the field, the layout, the history and the jacobs you need to win round here are all obvious. A slightly extended 7510 yard par 72 awaits this year, one or two minor changes to the course aside the real talking point is the 13th. It will come as no surprise to those that know me, that I don't like it. I don't like change and I think this hole is now reduced from a shot shaping risk reward Par 5 to a bomb it and see par 5, with most of the field laying up. If it means all players had to lay up on the downslope for their 3rd I'd be happy but taking the tee back that far means the players can hit either shot shape and not run out of room as much and it puts a premium on length. I hope I'm wrong, but one of the great holes in golf is currently reduced to an experiment.
The weather this week looks AWFUL. Now most years it looks bad, so maybe the weather gods skirt around the property like in years gone by, but very wet and quite windy reduce this place to a need for experience in my opinion. The ability to play in filthy weather and the ability to miss in the right spots is going to be key so my picks are all about course form, I'm investing 40points this week and my first pick is absolutely insane odds after his win at the Valero yesterday.
COREY CONNORS was already on the shortlist for this event regardless of form. Since his first appearance here, he has been inspired. Trending is not the word, well it is the word, but this premium ball striker's placings (in reverse) are 46, 10, 8 and 6th and he is a banker place this week, with a chance of winning if he copes with the weather and putts ok. He won last week, and that win took very little out of him as he won in 2nd gear and his form since the PGA tour headed east has been much improved. This guy has the game for majors, and to see him at 45/1 e/w 8 places with Bet365 was astonishing, that price must go by tomorrow 4points e/w.
Speaking of ridiculous prices next up we have a course specialist, major winner, great player and trending player up at odds that are twice what I expected. JUSTIN ROSE and the Masters have a great relationship and he has been the bridesmaid twice, with small pieces of luck going against him down the years. He missed the cut last year but he was injured, had some crap Japanese equipment and couldn't hit a cows arse with a slightly misshaped string instrument. Since his debut he has gone MC, 7, 23, MC, 2, 10, 2, 14, 25, 8, 11, are his last figures here and arguably he is hitting the ball as well as he was in 2013 when he won at Merion in emotional fashion. he plays in all weathers, his iron play is superb, he hits lots of fairways and he knows where not to miss it more than most. He has the credentials to go close again and the odds compilers have been on the sauce. 60/1 top 8 bet365 3pts e/w.
This blog loves a bit of place money but we all want winners. A man most famous for being loved by me, in an uncomfortable fashion, we have a steely, all class all American, who will win this event 3 or 4 times in my opinion. His win in 2015 and meltdown in 2016 were both dramatic but at no time in his career has JORDAN SPEITH been in a position to hit as many fairways as this year. He has gone from one of the worst drivers on tour to 81st, which may not seem great but it's a rise of epic proportions from the Texan. If he puts the ball in play this week, we know he is not scared of tough conditions, wind or winning, he will go close. His season's form make him a short price and his trouble with short putts may be mitigated by the fact he knows these greens like the back oh his hand, but at 16/1 Bet365 top 8 I'm 5points e/w, cmon Jordan!
Another entry into my Dad's army this week is a guy that thrives here and is probably the unluckiest loser of them all, when in 2011, Charl Schwartzel birdied his last 4 holes to beat JASON DAY by 2 shots. Since 2017 Day's star has dwindled but he still thrives round here. His placings since 2011 of 2, WD, 3, 20, 28, 10, 22, 20, 5, MC, MC, and last year DNP show you all you need to know about his injury detail and form. However, you'd have to be deaf and blind not to recognise his rise back up the rankings this season to 35th from well outside the top 100. This is down to his result this season with 5 top 10s in the 7 events he's played this calendar year. This has taken some juice out of his price, but class at 25/1 is all I need to know so I'm 5pts e/w top 8 Bet365.
Last but by no means least we have 3 men with no form, 2 LIV defectors, 1 enemy of the state, one bloke who is injured and couldn't find a sink with a squash ball. All absolutely no chance of winning anywhere but these odds are radio rental. I have to speculate. Apologies to those who backed Louis on an early post, his injury woes are so bad he won't complete so I have swapped him out for Bryson.
So 1 pt e/w on the following (all top 8)
BUBBA WATSON 200/1 Bet365
CAMERON CHAMP 250/1 Bet365
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU 125/1 Bet365
Other selections are:
Connors 4pts e/w 45/1
Rose 3pts e/w 60/1
Speith 5pts e/w 16/1
Day 5pts e/w 25/1
40 points total
TEWT
