So the play-offs arrive and the players (top ones) come out to play. The best players in the world (minus DJ) come together for a 3 week play-off for some multi million dollar cheques, and despite reduced fields (125 this week) it is so competitive that there are some decent odds to go at.
The storms last week at TPC Whogivesatoss, really put pay to what I believe would have been Henley's week. No player in the field has a more rhythm bias than Russell, he feeds on rhythm in his swing and his putting and the stop start nature saw him break us even for the week but his 4th place finish could have been so much better - another week of near misses, Stallings and Poston going close to place money also, but credit to "Tony" Kim, what a round that was, and another fearless Asian player dripping in class joins the winning ranks on tour.
This week is the St Jude classic at TPC Southwind. A short tree lined course which favours accuracy over power (for once). In the mould of Riviera Southwind rewards players who are accurate and can shape the ball. Par 70 7244 yards, Southwind has only 2 par 5s and usually yields scores of 12-18 under par. Tony Finau won here last time out, and he is the form player on tour and liable to make me and others look stupid this week by steamrollering the field again.
Water, water, everywhere, means that if you get out of position in the trees you are laying up, and this brings accuracy to the fore. It brings in my sleeper, my man crush, the number 1 player on tour tee to green and a bloke absolutely prime ready to win, and I think to date my most bullish pick since the conception of this blog in April - Will Zalatoris. Tee to Green SG number 1, he has allayed all fears of putting yips with his performances this season and he has zero weaknesses. His performances in majors and big (less bomb it and run) events shine through and he is a ridiculous 25/1 top 8 all over the shop (Skybet for me). I genuinely toyed with having 1 bet this week, just him he is such a good thing, but Finau and Cantlay scare the crap out of me so my self doubting conscience won through and he is my main pick rather than my only pick. He cannot be outside the top 8! 6pts e/w
So saying and doing things as above is pretty out of character for this blog, so let's get down to some cold hard stats and trends for our final 3 picks.
Next up is the big price that usually comes last, but after his win 3 weeks ago, the course being not overly long and the fact he ranks 6th in scoring average here since 2016, Chez Reavie get's a nod at 125/1 with Skybet 8 places. 2pts each way this week. He's way too big at those odds, chances are he won't contend, but he is the kind of player that hangs around all week and stays the test from behind whilst those out front sweat and fade.
Next pick actually came in as a swap deal, I wasn't going to put him up, but I found 22/1 with bet 365 top 8 for Tony Finau and if a cash ma chine offers you free money it must be taken. Nothing last forever, but Tony has just found something with his putting that has fed into the rest of his game. He hits 66 greens in regulation in his last win, which is the 3rd best EVER on tour, and has hit 128 out of his last 142 greens.......it is unparalleled and he should be 10/1 fav this week. It's a cowardly pick at shorter odds but with him and Will on board at least Sunday will provide some excitement. 5pts e/w 22/1 top 8 Skybet.
Last but by no means least is a leap of faith. It's a little lazy to just rely on SG T2G stats but it isn't so lazy to think that a quiet couple of months means Corey Connors is 66/1!!!! Top 8 with Skybet, Connors is an imperious ball striker, displayed with his 6th placed finish at Augusta this year, and a middling putter, but his putting stats tell a story of a bloke who hit's it to 20 feet a lot! He is my last pick 2pts e/w just pipping Theegala after Finau snuck in for some disgraceful thievery.
Selection summary below, but please remember the points, the picks and the outcomes are based upon data, discipline and systems. If you dip in for a week then dip out the long term gains will not show up. Bet responsibly, and don't use the extra place offers, as I've explained before, offers are designed to undercut your successes not improve your chances.
Will Zalatoris 25/1 Top 8 Skybet 6pts e/w
Chez Revie 125/1 Top 8 Skybet 2pts e/w
Tony Finau 22/1 Top 8 Bet365 5pts e/w
Corey Connors 66/1 Top 8 Skybet 2pts e/w
