Move to Memphis

As Matt Kuchar decides to go and play his last shots on his own today at the Wyndham, I find myself doing an early write up for what is a straightforward event this week (in terms of the first 3 picks), as the top 70 PGA tour players head to TPC Southwind for the Fed Ex St Jude and the first leg of 3, of the play offs. Let me just clarify, Kuchar choosing not to play on when every other player including those in contention did so last night, shows just what an unquantifiable arse he really is. When will the PGA tour and it's fans actually take a stand against him. If you are reading this Matt, and you obviously won't ever, please fuck off to LIV, or a farm in Georgia.

Before I explain to our newer followers the format of the play offs, let's briefly reflect on a profitable, and what could have been week, for the blog, as at one stage all 4 players held a share of a place in the final round. We had all 3 players place at Harbour Town this year, which (and I said it at the time) I felt was a bigger achievement than Harman or Villegas winning at 125s and up, but to get so close to all 4 placing was quite something, what could have been.

So we take our profits over to Memphis, Tennessee this week, and as I write this pre amble, I'm awaiting the early price show from those AI bot compilers that call themselves bookies. The Fed Ex St Jude sees the top 70 players from the regular tour season compete in a no cut event. Points are quadrupled from regular events (so 2000pts to the winner and so on), and 70 is whittled down to 50 for next week's BMW and then 30 heading to East Lake. So even those in the high 60 placings can catapult themselves up the leaderboard, like Glover did last year, and earn some serious dollar.

It's not a time to look ahead, the value and the selections are in the here and now, and although those on the button can either be looking over their shoulder, or putting the turbo's on to catch those in front, it pays us no service to consider positions at this stage. There is no trend to take heed of, although I am slightly put off by players in the 40-50 range as they may be a touch defensive.

We go for the treble now at the Fed Ex St Jude, as Zalatoris in 2022 and Glover last year were both tasty winners for us, although a word of warning, I can't see past Schauffelle and Scheffler this week, so I am going for place money and a wing and a prayer instead.

TPC Southwind, 7244 Yards par 70, is a typical US layout. Sand and water everywhere, pristine Zoysia fairways and Bermuda greens offer perfect conditions and whilst the amateur golfer would shudder at this test, these boys, if they can keep it in play from the tee, can take it on. Since the course was awarded this particular event in 2019, scores of 15, 15, 20 and 30 (although that was DJ and 2nd place was 19 under) show that it is gettable. There are quite a few doglegs here, and accuracy from the tee (rather than distance) is the key, favouring no shot shape in particular. It's not open, it is quite tight, trouble is from the rough, so accurate and in form players are the trend and this week we select 4 players of exactly that ilk (although like beauty, trends can be in the eye of the beholder).

First up is unimaginative, but since Glover won this back to back last year, I can't get away from AARON RAI. He's been a regular in recent months on the blog, and he is playing golf that would see him top 10 in the world on form. Last week's win was not a surprise, what is a surprise is it took him so long to take the opportunity, and Max Greyserman opened the door for him and he strode through it with aplomb. Aaron sits 3rd on tour in accuracy from the tee, he is bang in form (and has been for some time now), he has 6 top 10s this year, and heading into the Open his form figures where 2nd, 7th and 4th! Given the strength of the top 2 in the market (well 3 but how Mcilroy is half a point behind Schauffelle is beyond me - maybe Nick Doherty compiles those odds), he still has some juice left in his early price, and at 55/1 with Bet365 8 places we go 4pts e/w.

Driving accuracy leader on tour this season is sleeper pick, main pick and Ryder cup hero SEPP STRAKA. This guy has 5th places at the RBC Heritage and the Memorial both at courses where accuracy off the tee is king. He finished 22nd at the Open and did well for quite some time at the Olympics, so in his first foray back onto American soil and target golf, I think the time is now for another big week for the big Austrian (and naturalised American - Georgia tech graduate). He has been a model of consistency this season, which is not something he could have been accused of before, and he sits 18th in the Fedex because of his litany of top 20s this season. He has 2 tour wins to his name, he's a big moment player, he lost out to Zalatoris 2 years ago here in a play off and despite a poor showing last year shot a final round 65, so this place suits his eye. I think he's massively overpriced at 55/1 with Bet365 and again we go 4pts e/w 8 places.

Next up, one of the world's best drivers and putters, and off the back of a poor season, he comes in here still placed 5th in the FEDEX standings and with some form behind him. Although his approach play hasn't reached the heights of last season, WYNDHAM CLARK comes here off the back of a strong showing at the Olympics after a poor first round at LE GOLF NATIONAL, and 2 top 10s prior to missing the cut in the wind, rain and cold at Troon. Given his CV, his showing in the Ryder cup, a major winner, with 6 top 10s and a win this season, it shows how highly he is rated by many not just me, that we call this a below par season. At 50/1 this week, in a field of 70 I'm quite excited about his prospects and we go 5pts e/w on him with Paddy Power 7 places where I can't see him outside of the top 10.

It was hard to shake off Cantlay for this week, given his prowess in the play offs, but I'm saving him for the BMW next week, so we use up our final 2 points on an outsider but it is very much rinse and repeat in the guise of ALEX NOREN. He didn't make it here last year, withdrew the year before with a wrist injury, but finished 4th and 7th in the 2 previous appearances at the St Jude. He would have been my pick for the Olympics after 10th and 12th at the Scottish and British Opens respectively, but he fell away tamely after a good start on a track he should really have performed better at. A perennial winner away from the PGA tour, Noren has been solid this year, plenty of cuts, lots of top 40s, 2 top tens and he sits 39th in the Play off picture. He is 60th SG off the tee but is well in credit in terms of the field this week, and if DJ can win here cutting corners with a big fade, so can Alex. He is nicely priced at 66/1 this week with Bet365 again, and in a small field is well worth 3pts e/w 8 places.

Enjoy, don't give the profits back to the bookies and bet responsibly.

TEWT