So I started out sending a write up for the Masters to friends. I think many enjoyed the rationale but many also enjoyed that I didn't put up world number 1 and second favourite Scottie Scheffler......ok I'm no Steve Palmer
For what it's worth my opinions on this years masters. Best time of the year this so I've done a blog for some small bets on some fancies. (Warning it's a long read) Mcintyre 1ew Champ 1ew Molinari 1ew DJ 10win Casey 2ew Woodland 2ew Schauffelle 3ew So many cases can be made for so many players. Koepka leads off as his major form and masters form are outliers in terms of his tour stats. He needs the thrill of the major but at his odds I don't feel he's putting well enough. Putting is a major thread for me this week, rain is forecast which brings the whole field into contention rather than when Augusta is firm and fast so this week will be won and lost with the flat stick. I never ever thought I would have a masters without Jordan. Whoever his swing coach is wants stringing up, he is playing with zero freedom, and this new technically rigid swing is having a terrible impact on his game. He's all hands, he was at his best and his worst, and until he is given that freedom again I cant have him, as it negatively impacts his chipping and putting and unless you've just awoken from a Coma you know what is where his brilliant major successes came from. On a track that may as well be in his back garden he knows every inch of it, it may be a stupid call and maybe he's worth a quid to win with skybet, because he will probably have 3 doubles and 6 birdies in his first round! This year is not his year. Rahm, Mcilroy, Thomas, Zalatoris, Cantlay are all up there in the betting and imperious ball strikers but you cant back everyone and I'm willing to jump off them because inside 10 feet I think SG (strokes gained) could be a weakness for all. If any one of those putts well they can win, but I'm betting against that happening. My main man Morikawa is the 2nd coming in my opinion. Only Tiger at peak form can hold a candle to this guy in terms of iron play, the dispersion rates on his 4 iron is the same as most tour pros 9 irons, his god like iron game will see him get to double figures in majors but since the storms at the Players he's looked a little off colour. At 20s i may have to invest but I wont be putting him up this time, one to watch in running, if he gets the speed of the greens early I could look silly. So the outsiders, not many 3 figure prices stand out but 2 men are priced so badly they must be worth some place money. Molinari has looked a shadow of himself since his back 9 woes on 12 and more notably 15 in 2019, and he has suffered mentally since. However the sweet striking Italian is just showing some recent form with a top ten at the Amex and a good start at the players before tailing off. His odds are drastically wrong on all known form and 200s top 8 bet365 and 417 on the exchange is worth a couple of quid of anyone's money. Rob Mcintyre gets a vote this week (125s Bet365 top , any lefty gets a look at Augusta and in his first start last year tied 12th was some effort. He has a short game and putter to die for and if he can keep the ball in play off the tee this track is made for him. Cam Champ is a very tentative pick but a pick nonetheless. He hits it miles but his low ball flight isn't suited to the course, however it looks like it will piss down tues, wed and thursday so soft conditions play right into his wheelhouse and in two wet Masters he has finished tied 19th and 26th. Next I'll pair these two men into the same category, Schauffelle (22s) and Casey (60s). Both men loving the course and at least one will place. The former does have history of losing the ball left with his irons and right with his putter under pressure on a Sunday, but many a player has gone close many times before a breakthrough, you don't want to be the person missing out when he does win. Casey is almost certain not to win, but each way or even betting top ten it's almost a free bet, if he ever wins a major it will be here (big if but I'd love to see it) The player in the field who is all wrong in terms of price is Gary Woodland. 90s top 8 bet 365 is an absolute joke of a price for a bomber, a major winner and a man with so much swagger he has that Koepka feel for me, especially in all majors since his win at Pebble. His short game always left a bit to be desired but his chip from the putting surface on 17 at pebble showed he has arrived in the big time and he putts well, drives well and now modern tech allows players to hit over trees rather than round them, his power fade is a thing of beauty....I think he places at least. The main pick last but not least is the gunslinger, DJ. He's been 20s in some places but that's gone, now around 16/1 he is still massive value and should be fav. He announced his return after a break in Saudi with an 8th place finish and despite a bad draw placed 9th at the players 39th at the Valspar and a losing semi finalist to red hot Scotty S in the Matchplay. Stats are one thing but the eyes sometime tell you more than the bare stats. The way he moved into the ball and cleared his left side at the players told me he was back and sharp. DJ takes his time to build form, and his iron play tends to feed into every other part of his game. When his mid irons are on his driving is on. His wedges are always on and when he's hitting it inside 20 feet so often his putting sharpens up week on week, round on round. He could swing like a dunny door in a sand storm now I've built him up but he is such a huge fancy this week. I'm all out DJ, some each way but to win as well, and you know two things. You're getting a run for your money and you're getting to see him hit a lot of shots. Just missing out (yeah this is a cop out I know) are Corey Conners and Bubba (it's 10 years since his first win and he is pure box office if he somehow putts above average). A final note of caution, players to stay away from if you aren't up to speed with form. Bryson to miss the cut, he's had hand and hip injuries and when you swing the club at 120mph....good luck getting that back consistently. He has NO chance this week. Also many will see Matt Wolff at 3 figures and think ooo that's tempting. I don't want to make light of a terrible situation but poor Matt has completely lost the plot. His mental wellbeing is a real concern, his golf is way off, he can't putt inside 5 feet and his bounce back stats are appalling. I'd love to see him exercise his demons, but unless he has some mind coaching, anti depressants and counselling I worry about him. He shouldn't be playing in my opinion, I hope he gets better soon. Also have a look at in play markets, every year someone goes 4 over early and comes back from the dead, if anyone starts bad maybe invest again, but keep it small and keep it fun. Come on DJ This is my first golf betting blog, shame I didn't start last week with Beau Hossler 125s each way in Valero. Here's to some profits.
