Mexico Open time, a strange field this week, world number 2 John Rahm has spread-eagled the odds for a relatively weak line up and opened all kinds of mental odds for the thief this week.
I cannot and will not ever put up a 5/1 shot (unless it's Morikawa), especially one who couldn’t putt down a helter skelter currently. Rahm is clearly the class act, but 5s for someone who hasn’t won in almost 2 years is about as appealing as driving a pink fiat 500.
Vidanta Vallarta, par 71, 7,456 yards. This Greg Norman design opened in 2015. There are large landing areas off the tee, while the greens are protected by huge bunkers, so I’m going down the good putter, long not so accurate driver route this week. Better approaching protected greens with shorter irons!
5 selections this week, purely based upon small stakes and huge odds. It’s a bit of a dart throwing exercise but with 'knowledge' so here goes.
The first selection in order of chances is Cameron Champ. The bomber is 35/1 8 places with hills. He was the saver on Masters week for me, coming back from injury, and despite him being the best driver in the world in terms of distance gained, he was quite awesome in approach play round Augusta. He’s a sound putter, his short game is improving and if it blows a bit this week I like the low ball flight. 4pts e/w.
2nd pick of the week is steady eddy tee to green specialist Russell Knox. The Scottish Floridian and his crazy accent is as reliable as hot air in Parliament on a Wednesday tee to green. So in a field of this size, with a half decent week with the railway sleeper he putts with, he will be in the mix. 2pts e/w 50/1
3rd pick but only in order of odds is the out of form yet mercurial Emiliano Grillo. 10 missed cuts from the last 12, awful scrambling stats, putting stats and approach stats just don’t make sense. Clearly there are confidence issues here. Tied 21st at Riviera shows he still has the week in him, last year he’d be 25s for this. He strikes the ball sweetly, and I’m backing his short game to return and maybe the wind and wide open spaces to bring about a turnaround. 1pt e/w 125/1
4th pick is ‘son of Bob’ Kevin Tway. A giant of a man and a giant ball striker I’m backing him to put the ball in some great positions off the tee as his poor accuracy stats won’t be put under pressure (198th on tour). I was expecting bigger things from him when getting his tour card in 2014, but at 33 he’s still working his game out. 1 win on tour, 2nd in Houston this year 200/1 8 places with Hills 2pts e/w is a hill I'm willing to die on.
Final pick is former US Amateur winner at Erin Hills (remember the size of that place) Kelly Kraft. If you want something close to Erin Hills, Vidanta is it. Long, open, bunkers protecting the green, I’m taking the view that this great putter will fit the rest of his game into here, and he has form in the wind and on protected greens around Pebble. It’s tentative, but 1pt e/w 500s, I’m willing to look like a mug punter with the hope of looking like a genius come Sunday.
Final note I do get a few people who send me their tips that they have basically stolen off Steve Palmer. Steve is fantastic judge and his tips are way beyond where I am currently, and he has put up Aaron Wise this week and Cam Champ. Wise is another big hitter, bang in form and was on my short list, but with so many huge prices out there I abandoned him. So maybe ignore all of this and put the lot on him! Always remember bet small, only what you can afford and only if it’s for enjoyment…….I may look at the Belfry next week for the masters over here, so possibly 2 picks from each in some doubles for the craic…….subject to gaining some nice points this week.