Well Viktor proved one thing last week, when you're hot you're hot. When it comes to place money it's about being a good judge, but with these wins it can just be a right place at the right time. Not to undermine all of the work I've done, but watching that 61 last night it was just written in the stars our man was going to bring it home. As I said last week, Vik is a superstar, he will win multiple majors and he will break that big 3 and make it 4 very soon. His improvement in his short game is the final piece in the jigsaw, and his Scheffler like ball striking is here to stay. He is slowly taking over from Jordan as my favourite golfer, a more likeable guy you could not find, but this kid is truly special, and he and Mcilroy could well turn the Ryder cup upside down in Italy, in a Ryder cup that should be a lot closer than people think.
So the last event of the PGA tour season sees the top 30 players on tour head to East Lake. Like last year, this is a handicap system that dictates or is dictated by the order of merit, with the players starting on different scores. Please bear this in mind when looking at the odds, and again the odds, the extra places and the fractions are key in decision making. For instance I put up Vik at 1/4 odds a place last week, so the win paid 16 times the stake but at 1/4 odds a place of 16/1 we got 4/1 for the place. Make sure you read the place fractions this week.
East Lake has been Mcilroy's bitch since 2016 so he is rightly second fav despite giving Scheffler a 3 shot head start this week. It's a tree lined layout, with manicuring that rivals Augusta. Conditions will be perfect in Atlanta this week with no wind, but the brutal heat, soaring into the 100 degree plus realm, will make this a firm fast and brutal test of stamina, so fitness and form mean everything here this week. At 7346 this par 70 course won't play long, but control is everything and driving accuracy wins here. Scheffler is the worthy favourite but I'm sticking with VIKTOR HOVLAND again this week, his ball striking isn't a flash in the pan and he will go close starting at 8 under par just 2 shots back from Scottie. Betfair are best priced this week and at 5/1 I'm putting Vik up on the nose, 14pts WIN ONLY.
Next up I like to see players trend, I don't believe players can go from no form to winning within a week, so the last 3 weeks and the resurgence of MAX HOMA have been very interesting. He has a swing that conserves energy, he is a Californian so doesn't mind the heat and he is playing back to his best. I put him up as the player to watch this season, and despite early season excellence he has tailed off, but strong showings in the last 2 weeks have him starting at 4 under just 6 shots back of the lead and 1 shot from 5th and I am 7pts e/w with Betfair 1/5th odds 5 places 28/1.
Last up with delve into the stroke play winner on Bet365. This is a market which ignores the handicap start and just plays the lowest 4 round score of the week, and I have 2 players who both made it in by the skin of their teeth. Both men have previous round here, SEPP STRAKA looked dead and buried when he finished up yesterday, the woe on his face speaking volumes. Thanks to Justin Rose, Sahith Theegala and Denny McCarthy all blowing up he made it on the button (30th) and given his previous years performance finishing 7th, and zero pressure, I think he could take this place apart if he can drive it straight. He's 80/1 lowest 4 round score with 1/4 odds 4 places on Bet365 and I'm 2 points e/w.
Just one place in front on 29th, again starting at even par is JORDAN SPEITH. Now Jordan didn't expect to be playing here at one stage after his missed par putt on 18 yesterday, but he got here and when it comes to going low at East Lake he has previous. In his first start at the age of 20 he carded a 64 here, he won here in 2015 by 4 shots and has three 2nd place finishes here also. I almost put him up top 5 e/w at 160s, but the smarter play is the 33/1 on offer with bet365 to shoot the lowest 4 rounds and I'm 4 points e/w top 4 in that market instead with bet365.
STARTING STROKESPLAYER
10 under Scottie Scheffler
8 under Viktor Hovland
7 under Rory McIlroy
6 under Jon Rahm
5 under Lucas Glover
4 under Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick
3 under Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
2 under Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim
1 under Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day
Even par Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka
In Summary
To win Fedex
Viktor Hovland WIN ONLY 14pts 5/1 Betfair
Max Homa 7pts e/w top 5 Bet365 28/1
Lowest 72 hole score
Sepp Straka 2pts e/w 4 places Bet365 80/1
Jordan Speith 4pts e/w 4 places Bet365 33/1
TEWT