As we head to the raucous and brilliant TPC Scotsdale this week in Phoenix, this event, like many others last year has become all about 1 man, endless bollocks about how he injured his hand at xmas (the story is as boring as he is, he cut it on a wine glass) and a field of 143 other blokes chasing his tail and sometimes his dust.
The stadium course this week provides a stellar final 4 holes and the hope is this year players are within reach of the 3/1 fav, as the climax of this event can be quite special. We head in with 4 players this week, and although a good return last week, Billy missed a birdie putt on the last at Pebble on Sunday to give us 2 players at 125/1 placing, which would have been nice. Mcilroy was stellar, there is no getting away from that, but Rosey's iron play on Sunday was so unlike him, so for him to play so poorly and finish 2nd shows there is so much life in the old dog yet, and some amazing value at some of the bigger events this year and dare I say it a live pick at Portrush and Augusta.
The course this week is TPC Scotsdale and a par 71 measuring 7266 yards, has 3 par 5s and plenty of birdie looks. The greens are fast and can be fiery, but players who like hitting point to point, especially the modern golfer, love it here, it doesn't require much thought or strategy, it just requires someone to hit it straight and find the greens in regulation, and it isn't a course where length is as big of a factor as other tour events. A mix of Tee to Green prowess, and course form is the trend this week, and I'm rinse and repeat for the first pick as somehow last years winner and 2023 runner up NICK TAYLOR is inexplicably 50/1 with Hills. He's bang in form, he was midfield last week where high winds blew a lot of guys out of contention, he has won this season already and this place suits his eye and his hold off fade. He's 8th on tour SG approach and he is winning a lot. He should be 25/1 here so we use up 5pts on him 8 places with Hills.
Next up is a value play. He hasn't played much (twice in fact) this year, he is streaky, and he has made an appearance (and an unsuccessful one) on the blog before. 32 year old, cheese eating surrender monkey VICTOR PEREZ missed the cut here last year and has pretty much nothing going for him, but for the fact he is a robotic player, he hits greens in regulation a lot, he putts ok ish, he really should be contending more. He is 200/1 in places but Bet365 have him at 175s 8 places currently and he has a squeak at those odds. He has a win in him, it's his 2nd season on the PGA tour so he should be much more acclimatised now, I just like the price and the course for his game. 2pts e/w.
Hello darkness my old friend, CHARLEY HOFFMAN started his career resurgence here last year, losing in a play off to Taylor, but from not contending, to hold his nerve up the stretch and almost get over the line was pretty impressive. The 48 year old veteran likes the warmth, he likes it here and he loves hitting it straight and is 4th on tour Tee to Green. 5th and 25th in his last 2 starts, he owes this place something, and there are 3 delicious figures about his price. He's 100/1 all over the shop and we invest 3pts e/w on him with Hills.
Last up I had the most painful arm wrestle with myself (figuratively obviously) as the my final pick was between 2 guys I should really put up. At the time of writing this I want to stretch to a 20 point week, but I'm sick to my stomach as I'm leaving out a guy I absolutely love in Billy Horschel, who has form here and is hitting it so sweet, for another guy who I love who is hitting it even sweeter. It became a decision based on loyalty, and also based upon what I saw last week, and former huge priced blog winner, former US Open champ and baccy chewing gun, LUCAS GLOVER gets the nod. His iron play last week was something you rarely see on a Sunday. He didn't miss the W by hitting bad putts, but on those small, big breaking Po greens he just kept missing from 10 feet where Rory didn't, and on flat smooth surfaces this week he will give himself a host of opportunities he can take more readily. When he's on he's on and at a slightly bigger price than Billy, 70/1 is a massive. He hasn't got the greatest of records here, but then again he doesn't usually play well until mid season, so I'm forgiving him that. We saw in 2023 what momentum does for him, I'm a tad concerned he is taking maybe 2 seconds over his putts now when putting the bottom hand on his broom, rather than the half a second when he first got it, but again, let's focus on what he is good at, and that is hitting greens. 8 places, Hills 5pts e/w at 70/1 yes perlease.
As always only bet what you can afford, but just a quick note to followers, if you can share this far and wide on all social media platforms, then it helps me get more eyes on it, and if we can grow the audience then it makes all the research and the writing worth my while. I'm still funding most of the yearly fees for this website myself and some weeks time is limited so any help is greatly appreciated. One final point as well, I know many of you pick and choose from my picks, but I would encourage you to maybe half your stakes and stick with them all, the algorithm is not made up, it's there for profit, and we are a purely profit based blog, unlike most of the other pigs swill you will read, that has good info but won't make you a dime!
TEWT
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