The 4th best comp of the year, a major in all but name and a treat for all of us this week as players travel 3 hours North from Bayhill to Jacksonville to The Stadium course at Sawgrass. In November I did this trip in reverse, playing Sawgrass first then travelling South to Bayhill, but one thing that is for sure, the players won't be playing in 50mph winds and driving rain like we did. Unlike Bayhill where the sun shone, I just can't visualise all of the holes due to the horrendous weather and impossible putting conditions. From memory 1 and 10 were bloody tough starts to each 9, 9 was a beast of a par 5...probably to best par 5 I have ever seen, 16 was very easy, 17 green looked tiny stood on the tee box, and the drive on 18, 440yards into that wind was possibly the hardest looking shot I've ever seen. I like to tell the world I shot 79 at Bayhill with a double double finish, so for fairness the 101 I shot at Sawgrass with 50 putts balances it out. The main insight I would take from playing, into tipping, would be that it is a true test of ball striking. Putting will not be the deciding factor here (which JT and Adam Scott prove given their records here). The ability to hit 3 woods, driving irons and shot shaping longer irons is where it is at, so I'm looking for players who can work it both ways (comfortably).
Last week was one hell of a finish. Half the field were at 7 under at one stage on Sunday (ok that's an exaggeration), but whilst Kitayama was trebling the 9th, players were burning shots in smaller increments, and in the end Kurt just stayed the strongest and won an gripping and attritional tournament in a brilliant finish. Scheffler, scarily, played like a bag of crap all week but his putter is back to 2022 levels and he almost won but for being 2 yards out with a wedge on 18, so he is a huge danger going close in stellar fields with his B game. One quick note is for Cam Young, on the Sunday I watched most of his shots on the featured groups feed as he was an investment. He played the best golf of everyone tee to green, but his putter was stone cold, which is not like him, and he is my main pick this week.....and probably will appear a lot this year in this blog if the price and conditions are right.
The top 3 in the market and the world are causing huge disparity in prices these days, however this week the bookies have tightened their belts it seems, with a lot of each way value not on offer. JT was top of my list, and I could regret this, but he has been chopped to 16s and I'm not willing to burn points at that price. Scheffler is huge value at 11/1, I do think he is the most likely winner this week, but again I would have to burn 2/3rds of my stake to back him, and that is far from thievery. Jason Day was in the shortlist and he has been chopped to 30s so the bookies can ram that one where the sun doesn't shine, but again his health and form makes him interesting.
We are going full thievery this week, the simply Thief algorithm has led me to 7 players with the aim of getting 2 placed or 1 to win, so it's small bets, big odds, and waiting for an in-play on JT or Scottie (although I am not promoting that for the blog).
TPC Sawgrass, Par 72, 7245 yards, played on Bermuda Greens and Fairways (like last week), surfaces that if you had as carpet in your homes, shoes would be banned. It's a short course, it's winding, positional off the tee and as long as we get no rain, driving distance, accuracy and SG are pretty much meaningless. Approach shots are often with mid-irons, water, sand and undulating greens protect against low scoring, and the hope and play this year, is that the course will play fast and firm to keep it down to 12 under or within 2 shots either way. Last week showed what firm conditions can do to tour players, and what a spectacle it was. It seems course designers and green keepers are fighting back against technology and if they can get it right this week then maybe we can dream for another finish like last week.
So enough of all that, I know many scroll through my babblings to the gravy at the bottom, but here goes for the week ahead.
Stats go out the window this week, it's a week for feel, for a hunch and for marrying my visuals of the course with the game that players have. It's all about ball striking so here we go with our team of ball strikers.
1st up is CAM YOUNG. Now Cam's main 2 weapons in his career to date are his Driver and his putter. However last week his invention around the greens and mid irons were on point, I'd go as far to say he has improved hugely, and his wedge play has always been solid. He has the mentality, the game, the ability to hit a big draw or a squeezy fade, and he matures every week. He is a fighter, a gun slinger, he's the next DJ in my opinion and I've found 35/1 8 places with Bet365 so we are 4pts e/w with them, he is a live chance of winning.
So I gave this away last week, but next up is big SHANE LOWRY. So many reasons to back Shane and 1 reason not to. He does not putt well in 90% of the tournaments he plays in (maybe that's harsh) but he has the vision and the hands to win here, and at Augusta. He's a major winner, he will never feel the pressure he did at Portrush, so he has more big wins in him (let's not forget the field he beat at Firestone all those years ago). Possibly the best short game on tour, he shapes it both ways and the framing of Sawgrass will really meet his eye. The main hunch this week though is how he will feel driving through the main drive up to the property. He had a hole in one last year on 17, which he stated was the high point of 2022 on the course, and he is trending like a good thing anyway this season, coupled with 13th and 8th placed finishes for the last 2 years here. You may need to shop around as the 45/1 I got with Skybet has now gone with them, but I'm 3pts each way on him and at worst 40/1 is out there with 365 and Skybet, but Paddy power are 40/1 10 places.
Next up is another repeat pick, he appears a fair bit here now, and again, like Lowry I think the framing of the course will suit his eye. SAHITH THEEGALA is an inventive, mercurial type player, all hands and creativity, and he's another one who could be turned on by the sweeping vistas and undulations here. Last year he shot 74, 79 in his first appearance at the Players, but I'm forgiving him and anybody else on the wrong side of the draw last year when the wind came. I'm very forgiving of his performances for the 6 weeks after Phoenix, as that ball finding the water there on 17 at Scotsdale pretty much cost him the Tournament and it took him a long time to get over that in his rookie season. He is best priced 66/1 with Bet365 and I am 2.5points e/w top 8 with them.
The 4th pick was nowhere near my shortlist until last Sunday. If there is a streakier player on tour than this guy (or maybe Sepp Straka) then I'd like to hear it. HARRIS ENGLISH is a miss cut machine. Well that's a confidence booster you may say. He's also a guy who when he hits the frame does so for weeks and weeks, he is a pure confidence player. His B game is terrible, but his A game, like his swing, is top class. Now it's a long case for Harris, but here goes. He hates it here, he hasn't made a cut here since 2013, when he went into the May Players off the back of a 6th placed finish. He has not played here in the years he played well at Bayhill. He finished 22nd at Bayhill in 2018 so was in form but the Players was in May then by which time he wasn't making cuts anywhere (he finished 5th the week after at Puntacana which is now the Players in the calendar). He was injured last year, the next true year pre pandemic he finished 9th at Bayhill in 2020 and the Players was cancelled. Then 2019 where he didn't finish inside the top 25 all season and he was missing cuts more than making them he missed yet another cut here. Above all else last week his swing looked back to his pre injury best, and he is a hot play at 80/1 Hills 2points e/w 9 places, if he can get off to a good start then that could be cracking value.
Still with me? 3 more, let's keep going. No explanation, no stats, if you want to know more read my other blogs, next up is TAYLOR MONTGOMERY. For absolutely no other reason than every time he is 3 figures I'm all over him like a rash. He had a few bad weeks in California and Arizona, but he shot a 67 on the windy Friday at Bayhill last week, finishing 39th and at 125/1 I'm 2pts e/w with Bet365.
2 HUGE prices now and it is a recency bias based upon up and coming players who hit the ball beautifully.
First up with have potential superstar JUSTIN SUH. I mention putting a lot on this blog, it is half the shots for most of us, and I have never seen anyone putt so poorly...NEVER, than Suh did at the Honda. He was appalling, and inside 5 feet he made Lucas Glover look like Jason Day in the late 2010s! He finished 5th.....5th! He hit's the ball so sweetly, and if you can play any of the 3 big Florida courses then you can play them all. He finished 29th in a stellar field last week and he will be playing this event with a huge smile on his face, no tour card pressure, and he could be inspired for 4 days (mind you so could most of them). Like Lowry his 200/1 price has gone and I've got a piece of it thankfully, but best price 160/1 with Bet365 I'm 1pt each way top 8....this lad is one to watch.
A similar case to the above is made for our last selection ERIC COLE. The 32 year old Rookie, is from a golfing family, his mum was a top WPGA player in the 70s and a former rookie of the year, as was his Dad, who won the Buick open in 1977. He has it in the blood, He has struggled for years with his health, playing only occasional Korn Ferry events through the years due to Type 1 diabetes. It seems for the last year he has had a handle on it though, he played a lot of events in 2022 on that under-tour culminating in a 3rd place in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship to get his PGA tour card. He missed his first 5 cuts on tour, but since has found his way as a Pro, he shot a confidence boosting 16 under in the Amex and then found a breakthrough performance in The Pebble Beach Pro Am finishing 15th. He was exceptional in the Honda and was one good chip away from defeating Chris Kirk, but inexperience saw him take too much loft and miss the green with his chip leaving him to 2 putt from the fringe (but his caddie takes the blame for that in my opinion), and eventually he lost out to a Kirk birdie in the first play off hole, when in reality his chance had gone. He started with a solid 72 last week but then got on the wrong side of the draw on the Friday and he was blown off the course missing the cut like many others. It's a long case for a 0.5pt investment, but at 400/1 top 8 with Bet365 he's my last pick.
A long read this week but the summary on picks is below.
Cameron Young 4pts e/w 35/1 Bet365 8 Places
Shane Lowry 3pts e/w 40/1 Paddy Power 10 places
Sahith Theegala 2.5pts e/w 66/1 Bet365 8 places
Harris English 2pts e/w 80/1 Hills 9 places
Taylor Montgomery 2pts e/w 125/1 Bet365 8 places
Justin Suh 1pt e/w 160/1 Bet365 8 places
Eric Cole 0.5pts e/w 400/1 Bet365 8 places
Enjoy the 4 days, I know I will
TEWT