So we are warming up, which seems a shame as numbers are down on views, but let's hope the hardy souls that follow this blog are enjoying the profits their loyalty deserves.
Everything fell for Justin Rose last week, the weather, lies in the rough, hitting it inside other people's lines, I have never seen a player have everything go in his favour like it did for Rosey last week, but despite beating my big fancy Brendon Todd into 2nd at 70s (with Denny McCarthy back in a good 4th), it was a positive to see him back to his best, especially for the Ryder cup where he is an absolute lock now.
2nd and 4th last week, 2nd and 3rd the week before, 2 places are always a boost to the pot, so maybe this form can help me pick out a good one (or 2) for this week at the Waste Management in Phoenix. Possibly the most 'fun' closing holes in golf (not the best) with the mental scenes of Sam Ryder's hole in one and the cans and cups being thrown at 16, still fresh in the memory. I don't have a great record in this event but I will be struggling to pick the best putter in the field for the 3rd week running (Todd last week, Bradley week before), however if my main pick was to putt inside the top 30 then he wins, it's that simple.
The course, to start, the stadium course at TPC Scotsdale, 7261 Yards par 71. The thin air in Arizona gives players extra distance from the tee, but the big stat for me is that 7 of the last 8 winners had a major win to their name and the one was Rickie Fowler in 2015 when he was knocking on the door in every major. It's a 2nd shot course, like Augusta, and the other similarities are the lightning greens and over-seeded, manicured fairways and perfect sand.......so iron and wedge play are the keys to go with rolling the rock.
The field this week is as strong as any event outside of the big 5, with
The main pick this week is a horses for courses pick, JUSTIN THOMAS contends here every year. I worry he is slightly under-cooked this year but his finishes here are 8, 13, 3, 3, 17, and in a stellar field his odds are as big as I have ever seen at 20/1. It's a bet to nothing in my opinion and he heads my 5 picks this week 6 points each way 20/1 top 8 with Hills.
I think this is the hardest week to reduce down to 5 picks (more than the usual 4) because Rahm, Scheffler and Mcilroy have skewed the market. Looking on oddschecker I was like a kid in a sweetshop, 20s for JT and another huge price this week for CAM YOUNG. 2nd in Asia last week, Mr 2nd won rookie of the year last season and has more 2nds than a fat lad at a buffet. This would usually put me off, but rather than blow up, he seems to just find one too good and it doesn't seem that if he got in front (which he hasn't done in his runner up finishes) he could stay there. A top class driver and putter, Cam has it all and at 28/1 I'm 4 points each way top 8 with Skybet this week.
Next up and beware it is a rare 34 point week this week, I'm sticking with KEEGAN BRADLEY. I have such a soft spot for this bloke, I know I go on about the anchoring rule change and how he was almost robbed of his living because of it, but it's true. The main love for his game isn't that he has worked out how to putt though, the love comes from the fact he has sped up his game, and a premium ball-striker with more decision than indecision is a real treat to watch, and at 66/1 he has the game to win not just place, even in fields this strong, he is going to have a huge year, 4 points each way top 8 Skybet 66/1.
So I've been waiting for the week JJ SPAUN becomes value, and at Scotsdale it is the week. 110/1 is lick smackingly exciting, his maiden win last year and a real improvement in his iron play and putting, has him as one of the biggest improvers in world golf. His record here is 2 made cuts and a top 20, he is trending so his odds blow me away. 2points top 8 with Skybet each way at 110/1!
Last and very least is the man who should never be backed because of his dress sense, his beard, wearing classic shoes with joggers the list goes on. It's not an in-depth or knowledgeable pick, but SAM RYDER should have won at Torrey Pines his play for 65 holes was phenomenal and he also made an ace on 16 last year to amazing scenes, so the two things together plus odds of 250/1 are too sweet to not taste. My last 1pt e/w is on him top 8 places @ 250/1 with Skybet.
