So as we move into the 2nd week of the Fedex playoffs, we see a reduced field of 70, some juicy each way prices and brass in pocket due to Mr Zalatoris last week, who won a slow bike ride of a play off against Straka last week. I get a lot out of writing this blog and every week the method and model gets better, but I will promise all my readers (not many of you right now) that I will not nail my nob to the chopping block like I did last week. I was so sweet on Will, but the closer he got, the more I felt invested and it was not comfortable. Sadly it seems many followers missed the boat, but I'll find more, I'm confident of that.
Enough back slapping!
This week takes us to Wilmington Country Club, for some wider fairways and bigger greens than last week. This par 71, 7,534 yard Robert Jones course, sits in South Carolina, set amongst the rolling hills of the Delaware valley surrounded by lakes and trees. Sadly 300 of those trees are no longer on the course thanks to a devastating 30min Tornado 2 years ago so tee boxes have been moved and bunkers have been added. The South course changes it layout for this event to host it's crowds and it's sponsors and despite a stellar field, sadly it won't be able to blunt the scoring for such a big event - despite players having to cope with 8mph gusts! In the play offs last year Bryson -something what's his name Saudi sell out- became the only player in PGA tour history to shoot 261 and not win an event when 2nd. His 23 under tied last year's winner by play-off - Patrick Cantlay who putted the lights out this time last year. Now up until Saturday last week Cantlay was my pick for this event, but he didnt break par over last weekend's rounds from a good position and his putting from 10-15 feet is 186th on tour. I just don't see him getting the rewards that his tee to green play deserves and 14s is way too short.
So top 70 should be small odds, smaller places, but Hills this week is showing industry leading odds at 7 places so all of my selections are based on their book.
Pick number 1 is a short one, and it's a leap of faith to put up Justin Thomas this week. He has only played 4 events since his PGA Championship win in June, and this is his first back to back event, off the back of 4 rounds last week (since the PGA), where he finished T13th. He played well when very undercooked for St Andrews finishing 37th and his scheduling looks to me like he has built up to this shoot-out crescendo. He is sitting 10th in the play off picture, so this week he has to go all out to stay close to the lead for next week and with some golf behind him and that competitive tension of a stellar field for a huge event, I'm putting him up a big 7pts e/w 16/1 top 7. As always with JT it comes down to putting, if he putts well he probably wins he is so good when in rhythm.
4 picks this week and my 2nd pick is a guy with course form here, course form everywhere, and if he still has the stamina left after another long season is a lock for top 7. Sungjae Im is possibly the most consistent player on tour. He putts well, he chips well, he drives well and the worst part of his game sees him 51st on tour in approach! In a field of 70 it's another 'thief's' wet dream, to steal 25/1 4pts ew top 7.
Third pick is a guy who needs a worldy this week. Without the pressures of trying to jump from 57th to 30th to get in next week I would be much sweeter on him, but the big driving, consistent and competitive Cameron Davis is way too big at these odds to ignore. He has 5 top 10s this year, and he has taken over Davis Riley in my one to watch list, given his profile on so many leaderboards this year (and Riley's propensity for quads). He is 70/1 so I'm taking 3pts ew top 7 with quiet confidence.
I turned 3 picks into 4 this week after scrolling down oddschecker and wondering how the hell Lucas Glover is 150/1 after shooting 12 under last week. I occasionally put him up, and if anyone else follows that they will know that watching Lucas putt is like staring at a car crash, but the guy is a major winner, he still hits it as well as ANY player on tour, so 30/1 a place to be in the top 10% makes zero sense. So I stole a point off Cam and it's 1pt e/w 150/1 top 7. He's probably waiting to go and dominate the champions tour but if Poulter and Mcdowell are getting blood money Lucas could be next in line, for me the most underrated ball striker of a generation.
In summary this weeks winners with Hills are:
Thomas 16/1 7pts ew top 7
Im 25/1 4pts ew top 7
Cam Davis 70/1 3pts ew top 7
Glover 150/1 1pt ew top 7
