As we head East to the Florida swing and the test that is the PGA National this week, things ramp up a notch, and we have a much improved field for what used to be the Honda Classic.
Last week in Mexico was a disappointing week in a sense of no runners, (Chris Gotterup w/d with food poisoning when well placed) but not in terms of who won and placed because apart from Doug Ghim, if you'd have given me 20 picks I wouldn't have picked any player in that top 8, it was a freak week and the bookies had a whale of a time!
PGA National is the kind of course that gives players nightmares. Over the years the fields have got less and less in terms of quality as Pros dodge the event to protect their confidence (that's a fact). This year we have Rory, Cam Young, Fowler, Fitzpatrick, Tom Kim, Sungjae and a much improved field should present a brilliant weeks viewing. Whilst we aren't pulling up trees we are treading water somewhat and every week there is an expectation rather than hope, that with a bit of luck, and a greater sample size for form and stats we can pick up multiple places and go close. Just look at previous years, those who stick by the system are rewarded, and those of little faith lose out when the time comes for the worm to turn.
Jack Nicklaus has designed a course this week (The Champion Course) which is a brilliant test of ball striking and shot shaping. Undulating greens that when firm are tricky to hold are one thing, but the trouble off the tee and hazards in play are something else completely and this week on this par 71, 7147yard layout, Tee shots and Tee to green stats are everything. The profile of my 5 selections this week all looks very similar (apart from the last 2 at mental prices), great ball strikers, premium rate tee to green and Tesco value range putters. You don't do well round here without putting well, but you've got to get onto the greens in regulation first and there are some huge numbers out there if you are off-line.
In such a good field, it was a huge short list (so not a short list) this week, and in order of appearance we start with TOM HOGE. Fortunately with Rory in the field his 8/1 fav has stretched odds right out and value is the key to Hoge who has shown some much needed form early this season and from the Amex on he has gone 17, 56, 6, 17. 8th with both of the top 10s in designated events. Tee to Green Hoge has always been class, and a return to last season's form would have him at the top end of most markets. His form here is not good though, in fact it's filth, since his debut 37th in 2016, he has gone MC, MC, MC and MC. He plays well at Bayhill, he's loved Sawgrass, so the Bermuda isn't the problem, but I can't accept this place doesn't suit him and at 50/1 his price is mouth wetting rather than bed wetting. He was 66/1 yesterday so apologies for getting this out late, but at 50/1 8 places with Hills I'm 3pts e/w.
Next up we have course specialist, driving guru and short game god, big SHANE LOWRY. Shane underperformed for us here last year (despite finishing 5th), as he putted like he'd been sniffing cat shit for 4 days, but he is forgiven and I can't get the layout and his game out of my head. It's a marriage, albeit an abusive one in 2022 (thanks to a horrific storm that ruined his chances on the 18th), made in heaven. He played well at Torrey, which is a similar test to here, 5th, 2nd, 35th, 21st in his last 4 appearances at this track. Form and stats don't usually matter with Shane it's all about that stupid Odyssey 2 ball putter he can't use 45 weeks a year. so we go 4pts e/w 8 places 30/1 with Bet365 in the hope this is a going week on greens he loves.
In the words of R Kelly you-have-got-that-VIIIIBE this week, well not you but me, for the stupid long putter revival schtick! Yes it's the Glover, trend, but this time it's with one of the best ball strikers and Tee to green players in world golf. BYEONG-HUN AN, better know as Ben An, has done well to maintain his sanity over the last few years. Let's throw so many good stats that work this week for him out, with the baby, the bathwater and the bath! I'll drop the Mic here with his putting stats that's are mind-blowing. He had 2 top 10s in Hawaii as he enjoys Bermuda greens anyway over the west coast Poa options, but year on year here are his previous putting stats year on year. 144th, 195th, 176th, 182nd, 165th, 171st and although the rankings aren't there for 2014 he would have been stone last at -2 shots a round lost. No player on tour has a worse record putting, yet this year he is 88th, and it is all down to the long putter. Without getting too technical, this feeds into the rest of his game so positively that if it maintains he will win 2 or 3 times this year. He is short this week because of that, but I adore the profile and we go 5pts e/w 8 places 25/1 with Hills.
A quick synopsis of a pick that is a bit outlandish, but the big burly 31yr old Brit that is BEN TAYLOR, was bang in contention last year. A graduate from Louisiana state, he is a fine putter and a streaky iron player, but he somehow managed to drive well here last season, and Boylesport are putting him up at 750/1 8 places (600 in other places), so I can't not invest 0.5pts e/w on him this week. Purely based upon how he drove here last year, and lightning striking twice.
Last pick, last 2pts e/w and this was the hardest pick of the week with so many fitting the ball striking profile needed round this place. Previous winner Padraig Harrington is a great price, but again after last year, and he has appeared a lot in my blog in 2023, JUSTIN SUH gets the nod. He led after 36 holes last year, and this was one of 4 top tens and 8 top 25s in his season. Commentators constantly claim that he is a good putter, and this plays out in the stats, but to the eye he looks like a fine ball striker and much more than just a good flat stick operator. I certainly hope so as he has beaten Hubbard, Ghim, Jaeger, Mitchell, Horschell and last off the list Michael Kim. A tough prep week this week, and the hardest short list to put together this season so far. Suh is 150/1 in many places and 8 places with Betfair gets 2pts e/w investment.
Go well enjoy, and BEN AN wins.
TEWT