Pete Dye has designed some brilliant golf courses. His crowning glory Sawgrass, Kiawah Island, Harbour Town......as we head to La Quinta, California this week, the Stadium Course, PGA West is not in that list for me. Having played golf in America, there are usually 2 types of golf courses. Ones that are laid out beautifully, requiring shot shaping and imagination, and ones that look great but are hit to one point over or around sand and water, and then again over sand and water to another point. These type of tracks are dull, it's target golf and all the visuals can't take away from what is not a test without wind, the PGA West course is not Sawgrass. There have been an additional 200 trees planted since last year so maybe some corner cutting has been stopped but I won't hold my breath. So with 2-3mph winds this week, we have the glorified putting competition that is the Amex. With another place in the bag last week (Nick Taylor), despite an unbelievably disappointing Sunday from Montgomery, Harman and Kirk, we take our small profits forward with 4 selections in a field with a lot more strength in depth going into the California swing.
PGA West Stadium Course, The Nicklaus Course and La Quinta form the 3 layouts this week. This is a 3 round cut, with 3 courses on the rotation (so The Stadium course is only played twice if players make Sunday), there are better tests to come in Cali, but this week, perfect conditions, vistas and scoring conditions await, which make it all the more tricky to make selections when scores are going to be so low.
First up this week we have a guy who only just missed out on selection for the Sentry and gave me some uncomfortable moments there. A previous world number 1, tournament winner last year, fit again and a ball striker of distinction and god like putter, JASON DAY will win again this year at least once. His fitness problems seem to be gone, he came 10th at the Sentry (-24) and shot all 4 rounds in the 60s (Par 73 remember). If a course is a putting competition, these perfect greens are great for all, but JD won't be found wanting, a confident selection this week. 5pts e/w 33/1 top 8 with Boylesports/Hills/PP/Betfair et al.
Next up it's that favourite rationale of mine, top player, shite putter. SI WOO KIM, has a temper Yosemite Sam would be proud of, but he doesn't hate dat wabbit, he hates putting.
He's a 4 time Tour winner including here in 2021, he's pure class with his irons and he putts poorly 9 times out of 10 rounds (and some of his putters haven't lasted 18 holes). 23, 16 and 19 under are his last 3 visiting scores here, and he made a solid defence at the Sony last week with an 8 under par finish. He hasn't shown great form with the flat stick (the big flat stick in his case) but at his odds, it's a punt that he can use these great surfaces to roll his rock well early. If he has a good starting 9 on Thursday and holes 30 or 40 feet of putts, then all of a sudden he goes 2nd or 3rd favourite, and it isn't a big if, as poor players are helped more with fast greens. He's huge value, and always has a win in him. 4pts e/w 45/1 Boylesports/Hills 8 places.
3rd up, the once regular winning machine on the DP World Tour ALEX NOREN is yet to win on the PGA tour. He finished last season in fine form with a 3rd and 2nd place in his last 4 events and finished with 18, 15 and 22 under scores in 3 of those. He blew off the cobwebs last week with a solid 8 under par, and has no recognisable weaknesses in his game. He had a terrible start to last year, he missed the cut at the Masters, The PGA and the US Open but after a solid 23rd at The Open he has got back to the old god like iron player he once was. His lack of a win is a worry, but at 66/1 he is fine place value and he has the capability to win, he has 11 wins across the world in his career. 3pts e/w 60/1 8 places Hills.
Last up we rinse and repeat with TAYLOR MONTGOMERY. He can go low, he is an excellent target golfer and for 3 rounds he played TPC Sawgrass like a dream last season, so this sand and water inspired target golf should suit his eye. His odds are getting bigger (go figure), I'm not ready to stop putting him up, and when he gets that white faced wand going he can go low and mix it with the best in the world, Huge value this week. 3pts e/w 55/1 8 places Hills.
Justin Thomas is short odds this week for a guy who hasn't won in 2 years, but I do believe he is trending, and I do think a more difficult test will bring out better results. Two great putters in Eric Cole and JT Poston are both interesting also, but their odds are very defensive, as usual the compilers are just running away from a competitive book. Also on the shortlist is Nick Taylor - again, but I'm waiting for Phoenix with him, and lastly it's so good to see Daniel Berger return after 18 months away from golf. He was knocking on the top 10 door in the world rankings and debilitating back problems have made his life a misery since 2022, but I'd love to see him make the cut and get 4 rounds in. Technically he has a very unique swing, so I don't see quick starts, but I just wish him all the best.
Fingers crossed for a couple of places this week, and maybe the same 3 days as we had last week, just with a better Sunday!!!!
TEWT