Oak Hill, the PGA Championships, the site for the 2nd major of the year in New York this week. This exclusive and historic golf course has undergone some serious changes in recent times and boy are the players in for a test if they can firm it up this week. Last year saw Justin Thomas produce our first winner, beating Will the thrill in a play off (after that Pereira drive into the creek on 18) and this place is set up for more of the same drama this year.
To start, the latest redesign by Andrew Green, took some fierce criticism from members with something in the region of 2000 trees removed, but at a closer glance, this is a real masterstroke, taking the course back to it's roots as a course for brutal accuracy needs and spin control to crazy greens, shaped like nowhere else, with hollows and run offs with no rough protection that can put even these great players to the test. This could be a US open event if they get it firm enough, so the hope this week is something in single figures under par will be the number, bringing in the very best and most consistent players in golf, what a treat this could be. That said, the test this week COULD be weather related and at the time of writing, I fear cold and wet conditions will blunt the great assets of the course and wipe out 75% of the field with length. I'm still taking short game skills as a factor, but length is going to be the key, and adapting to cold, wet conditions.
The layout of Oak Hill, looks part Bethpage, part Shinnecock, part Oakmont so there is absolutely no brains required to work out who the stand out pick is this week.
BROOKS KOEPKA proved at Augusta that he has thrown off the whining shackles that had me squirming on the PGA tour Full Swing documentary. I firmly thought he had 'gone' at the game and most people who put him up for Augusta, hadn't watched it and got very lucky! His demeanour, coupled with his happiness to be playing at the top level, really shone through, and the guy who was such a huge force in majors in the 4 years leading up to the pandemic, showed he is back. He even took defeat like a man, he seems in a good place, and he has the length, the game, the mindset and the discipline for this. Oh yeah and he won at Bethpage, Shinnecock and Tied 13th at Oakmont.....he is the man this week and I can't see him out of the top 8. You can get 20/1 on with Betfred 8 places, it's buying money, and I'm 7 points e/w.
Next up is equally as predictable, cut and paste in CAMERON YOUNG. Cam has the length, the game and the mindset to win here, he plays best when it is tough and his driving will be the key this week. The rough is going to be brutal and the more loft you can have in your hand from that, or even better the fairway means you have half of a chance. Length and accuracy is your friend everywhere, but here it is everything. Cam is a juicy 28/1 8 places with Bet 365 and he gets 6pts e/w this week.
The last two picks are both value if they put it together this week. I am so sweet on SHANE LOWRY around courses like this. He went well at Oakmont, and I'll never forget his WGC performance at Firestone years ago, another track which demands accuracy and length. He drives the ball brilliantly, has one of the best short games on the planet. He is a dreadful putter but he has proven in big events that 2 decent rounds on the greens can see him home, and he is not afraid of wet cold conditions. Somehow he is 80/1 with Bet365 this week so I am 3pts e/w.
Last up I'm breaking all my own rules and putting up TOMMY FLEETWOOD. Tommy is about as reliable as an Alfa Romeo in the desert, but he does well on these tracks and has a very strong place record in majors. He is priced where he is in the market because his chances of winning are almost nil, but he will get a lot of coverage and he usually gives you 3 rounds of hope so I'm willing to throw away 3pts e/w at 55/1 with Bet365. His showing at Shinnecock is enough to tilt the scales for me, and if nothing else he'll either throw away a chance, or finish like a train if he makes the cut.
Usually I like a big price in these events, but with 8 places this week and a field this strong, and the top 2 in the world all but guaranteed to place I couldn't find value at triple figures, so the prudent move was to pick two players to contend and 2 others who are strong place claims. Time to get the profits back into 3 figures again, so come on Rochester, let's see what you've got.
In summary:
Brooks Koepka 20/1 Betfred 8 places 7pts e/w
Cam Young 28/1 Bet365 8 Places 6pts e/w
Shane Lowry 80/1 Bet365 8 Places 3pts e/w
Tommy Fleetwood 55/1 Bet365 8 Places 4pts e/w
TEWT
