So the Dell match-play this week, a fearsome betting prospect and an event that is very volatile, so half the points investment this week on 3 players. Happily the markets are improving now, and each way odds extend to semis and quarter finalists which gives a much better chance of turning a profit. This is especially important in this event and at this time because Scottie is the defending champ. He was runner up as a rookie the year before and he is, by a distance, the best player in the world, no matter how much Sky want to tell you Rahm and Mcilroy are hot on his heels.
We won't talk about last week, Speith was the only player I could have picked out of a line -up, other than to note that Taylor Moore is some player and he has been on my shortlist for a while, but I couldn't have picked him on such a tight track like Innisbrook. I'm excited to see where this win will propel him to, especially on bombers courses that are coming up in Texas, Craig Ranch, San Antonio etc.
So Austin Country club, Texas, a risk reward (mainly reward) 7108 Yards Par 71 course, that yields birdies, and a lot of them. If this were a tour event I think we'd see 25 under or more winning, but fortunately it isn't, so the gladiatorial style golf that is match-play, suits this place. It's another Pete Dye course, so shot shaping was the name of the game, before Technology allowed players to just hit it high and long. The usual water and bunkering that is synonymous with Dye is on show here, but a note must be made that Kuchar, Kisner, Horschell have all won here and love it here, so distance isn't a deciding factor.
I'm going on some stats, some trends and some previous form here, but the value for me lies with Players who give very little away in their mannerisms (which means my last pick is utter bollocks). Stone cold types, who are playing well and have experience round here go onto the front page and I have 3 that I'm hoping can get through the group lottery (and it is a lottery). Again I can't put anyone off Scheffler, at 8/1 he is terrific value, but the thief can't just run a blog that says 15pts each way on the Scheff, as much as one day I might (LA Country Club in June Springs to mind).
1st Pick is a crazy price in my opinion. TOMMY FLEETWOOD has been coming here since 2015, he has a winning record at this event, a Quarter final appearance in his first year, he didn't get out the group in 2018 despite winning two out of his 3 matches, and a quarter finalist in 2021. His current form is very very good, he does have a habit of missing the ball both ways when he gets to the lead, but match play is different, he is a Ryder Cup winner and stalwart now, he has won 4 drawn 2 and lost 2 of his matches in that, and last year he beat the Scheff in the group stages. He is 40/1 each way 4 places (semi finals or better pays the place) and I'm 2.5pts e/w on him this week with Bet365.
Next up is a blog regular. As I've stated before this is a hunch week, SAHITH THEEGALA hasn't been here before, and I can't find his college Match play record, but he is in form, he is creative, he putts well, he's great around the green and his weakness, driving accuracy, won't be tested this week on a course where 3 woods are hit a lot! He has the game for this event, but the main driver is his group. He is better than JJ Spaun, Min woo Lee and he also has to face a woefully out of form Fitzpatrick, so I'm taking him each way to make the qtrs at 55/1 each way 8 places with Skybet I'm 2.5pts e/w.
Lastly, for all of the above rationale, the group, his form, his recent form here and his match play single prowess, I had to plump for TYRELL HATTON. He divides opinion Tyrell, but I honestly believe that this man throws a club with more style and panache than anybody who has played the game. Every putt he misses is someone else fault and I think everything he does feeds into his performances, take that fire away from him and I don't think he would be the same. He's short odds this week, but his record here is excellent and he should go further this year, plus I can't imagine playing him is any fun at all! His first visit in 2017 he didnt get out of the group despite winning 2 out of his 3 matches, 2018 last 16, 2019 last 16, 2022 Qtr finals, he has only had one bad year in 5 here. His 2021 Matchplay stats reflect a terrible season for him (here and at the Ryder cup as well as his year in general), but the last 18 months have seen him back to his best, and in a group he is favourite to win (Henley, Herbert and Griffin) I'm chancing 3pts e/w on him 25/1 top 4 Skybet.
In Summary
Fleetwood 40/1 Top 4 Bet365 2.5pts e/w
Theegala 55/1 Top 8 Skybet 2.5pts e/w
Hatton 25/1 Top 4 Skybet 3pts e/w
Go well
TEWT