It's here, it's Bayhill!
As the PGA tour's top players travel to South Florida to play at Arnie's place, I feel a tinge of excitement in me, for reasons long time readers will be bored with.
Before all that, what a week we had last week. In terms of profit it was a decent week, but in terms of excitement, thrills, spills and emotional rollercoasters we went through it all. Knapp's 59 was great, but he would have been far better off shooting 65, as players don't go that low 1st round and win. History wasn't on our side, and sadly neither was our men fatting their rock into the drink. Montgomery, a 500/1 selection, led by 2 on Saturday and hit as bad a shot as a pro golfer can hit into the water on 15, eventually making a quad 7 and dropping down. He then found a way back to within 2 of the lead on the back 9 on Sunday and managed to foul up again, and although it isn't the end for him, we just can't put him up for an event where there is water. Jake Knapp on the other hand looked likely to duel with Henley on the back 9, only for him to duff a wedge into the water on 12, and then make bad decision after bad decision to make triple. Bones McKay, Mickelson's old caddie, stated on course he should go back and play the wedge again under penalty and that his caddie should take charge, but for the second week running bad play, bad caddying and bad decisions cost us, and what was worse, the winner, Joe Highsmith was on a shortlist already with me (and has been put up on the blog before) and now his price is gone! He played with all the swagger of a guy who didn't expect to win, he holed almost 250 feet of putts in the final round and something was written in the stars. So with an 18point profit, after a 2nd the week before, our players and our selections are trending for sure, and we are getting plenty of excitement......we just don't want more disappointment from the golf gods!
Bayhill Country club and lodge, just outside of Orlando, Florida, hosts a signature event this week, and boy what a place this is. The best golfing venue I have been to so far, the lodges, the history, the members, the ribeye steak it is all top drawer, but the course is an absolute brute, and an absolute masterpiece. The par 3 2nd is one of the most difficult par 3's in the game, the par 5 6th looks like nothing but water, 8 and 9 have double written all over them, the 11th is tough but the players make it look easy, and 18 is iconic, with gators waiting to swallow your shiny new Titleist (other golf balls are available) or the bunkers on the left which I visited, present a hellscape hitting onto a virtual ski slope with nothing but water past the front pin placement. It's a course for positioning, the greens are usually firm so you don't want to be taking long iron approaches, but tee shot's are generally fraught with danger and the rough is brutal and often prevents players from reaching the par 4's from it. Scores are often sub 10 under here, but like last week, the tour are making strides to allow players to make a score in the first 2 rounds, before the greens crust up and they have to cling on, so I hope they don't offer too many opportunities here and protect the players from the pain I love to see them in. The greens are rapid, shiny, hard and undulating, so the world's best need to bring their best ball striking week here as there is no respite if you're off your game. 4 par 3's and 4 par 5's make things a little more score able and the players have to take advantage of the 5's here, which are the opportunities on this layout. So 72 players to post and top 50 and ties for a Friday cut, par 72, 7466 yards, here we go.
If ball striking had a face, then right now that face would be RUSSELL HENLEY and he is our first pick this week. A previous winner up the road at PGA national, it was a real surprise to see Henley drop away on Sunday as he looked the main danger to Knapp. A multiple winner, he made his President's cup debut last year and could make the US Ryder cup team this year. He is putting well, his iron play is top 5 and if he can get the ball in play off the tee he is a massive danger to the big 3 of Scheffler, Mcilroy and Aberg. There is star quality which you need to win here, and he can do so if he puts things together, and he is moving through the gears this season with a 5th at Pebble and 6th last week, to go with his 4th here last year. A streaky putter he looks like he is getting his confidence back there, he has everything it takes and his price is an absolute mess at 70s. Get on quick and get on big on him, 4pts e/w 70/1 7 places with Paddy Power!
Next up another player from last week and he got in here courtesy of a 4th place finish moving him into the AON Top 5 rankings. I've been waiting for a price on the rosy cheeked assassin BEN GRIFFIN and boy do we have it. Ben is a brilliant tee to green talent, not the longest but very accurate, he plots his way round. He's an intelligent golfer (a rare entity these days) and if he putts well he contends. Despite this being a stellar field, there are so many players lower in the betting than him who are bang out of form. 4th in Mexico and 4th last week, his last 2 starts are not to be sniffed at. He was left wanting slightly and he should have won by now, but at 80/1 he is outrageously tasty for a place with Paddy Power and we go 3pts e/w.
Looking at the top of the market this week there was no appeal. I'll make myself look silly here but here goes. Scheffler, still not firing and way too short. Mcilroy, single digits way too short especially if it's firm. Aberg again too short (right now) for a guy who has won just once (albeit in a fledgling career). Schauffelle, too rusty and too injured. Morikawa bang out of touch. Thomas, too short still on a comeback, Matsuyama and Cantlay, no wins on the East Coast between them, Fleetwood, would lose a play off in a 2 man field.
So we keep going to the well and next up we go with 2016 winner and Florida specialist JASON DAY. He's won here, he's won the play offs, and I have said it already this year, he's fit and healthy. He is best priced 80/1 with Paddy Power and we go 3pts e/w on him.
2 to go, in our big price field, and I just love AARON RAI's game for this place. Tee to green is superb, he isn't long, which won't hurt him here, he's in form, he's striping it and he's 90/1 with Paddy Power. 4th in Mexico with 4 rounds in the 60's he really should have won, and his putting let him down, but he is straight, he has a good short game and he resides in Jacksonville so the Bermuda and warm climate will be just his thing. Usually players are strong in 2 categories and weak in another, Aaron is 34th off the tee, 43rd SG Approach and 61st in putting, he is just solid as a rock. His mind will be on the players, as he lives on the Sawgrass property, but he didn't qualify here last year so he will be making up for lost time I hope. 3pts e/w.
My last 2pts this week is a familiar story, and it would have been on Knapp had he not missed a 4 footer on Sunday to get in here, but I like a draw for this place, and I like a plotter, a player who can play tough courses and we all know I love LUCAS GLOVER. His price is getting juicier as he keeps placing middle of the pack, he missed the cut on the button last week, but he is still playing nicely, and old school courses suit his style, and his swagger around here could get bigger as the week goes on despite the 125/1 with Hills 7 places (all 7 places this week). 2pts e/w, I'm just a sucker for the gun slinger.
Go well, TEWT.
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