So after a small profit at the Barbasol (thanks to Lucas Glover who should have won) and Scottish last week (and what a finish in Berwick by the way) we head into the final major of the year at Royal Liverpool.
10 miles West of Liverpool city centre, the small Village of Hoylake provides the backdrop for the 2023 Open Championship. This place hosted 10 Opens from 1897 until 1967, but due to politics. conditioning and money a 39 year Hiatus meant this Harry Colt classic didn't see another Open until 2006, and predictably in the era of the GOAT, Eldrick 'Tiger' Woods lifted his 3rd Open title here. In 2014 a dominant Mcilroy looked to have the whole world at his feet as he cruised to a victory that his winning margin of 2 shot margin doesn't quite bely, and 9 years on we see the 13th playing of the Open here, post some redesign, lengthening and the introduction of the fascinating short Par 3 17th, which looks an absolute beauty.
156 Players go to post this year, with past winners, qualifiers, amateurs and the top ranked players from the PGA tour, the DP World Tour (previously European tour) and the Japan Golf tour. This Par 72 measures 7349 Yards, it has some internal out of bounds and will be a measure of control rather than power here, and accuracy and strong iron/fairway wood play will be needed to get the ball in position off the tee. I've looked at several flyovers and maps on this course, and although the modern game is more about hitting from point to point vs the old style of shot shaping, this is Links golf, so ball flight, ball control and shaping of shots will count double here especially with winds being between 10 and 20mph all week. Some may argue therefore, that this is a mute point but I like a draw around here (for the right hander) on all but 2 of the par 4s and 5s, and especially with the internal out of bounds being to the right I like seeing players hitting away from the penalty rather than to it. Maybe it's an old fashioned look, but it's an old fashioned course, so for that reason I'm picking 3 left handers as we go with 6 picks this week and 40pts investment.
Before we talk players, we need to talk weather. It's Britain, so wind, rain, sun can all come in one day, the weather can change, but as meteorology has improved we can be pretty certain that the forecast will be quite close. We have rain falling this week up until Wednesday morning so sadly this will make the course a bit less Linksy and more to the American players liking as they can carry shots to target rather than running them up. Often weather variances can create a draw bias, but although it looks like Early Thursday Late Friday will get the best of things, there isn't a marked difference in what those conditions will be, as the worst of the weather, wind and rain will be coming on Sunday, but again, it isn't a lot of rain and wind in the 10-12mph range and gusts up to 20mph isn't going to truly test the players like in some other years, but will still present a big enough challenge to keep the scoring in the 15-18 under region.
Once upon a time being left handed was a sign of the devil, children would be punished for writing in schools left handed, they were struck on the hand and forced to use their right hand, and now when watching any left handed sportsman play golf, cricket, even snooker, it always looks better, mystical, cultured, full of flair, like some form of witchcraft I wish I had! We will start with the 3 lefties this week, In order of selection we start with someone who I have grown to dislike given his ridiculous outbursts, his attitude and his hypocrisy, but we look for profit and boy is the GREAT that is PHIL MICKELSON fabulous odds this week. Phil has an Open Championship win at Muirfield, 2 runner ups and a 3rd since his first Open at an Amateur in 1991!! He has missed his last 3 cuts in Opens, but it seems the 53 year old is loving life as a part time golfer and he looks better prepared for major championship tests these days, not to mention he became the oldest ever major winner at a links style course in Kiawah Island just 2 years ago lifting the PGA championship. He finished 2nd at the Masters this year, 58th at the PGA (which played like a US Open) and despite missing the cut on a course he hated in the US Open, his confidence seems to be very high and his life (helped by a few hundred million) seems much more serene, a happy golfer is a good golfer! I can only think his age is the reason for the huge price, but for a guy who finished 23rd here in 2014 (as defending champion) and will be fresh and prepped around here 225/1 top 8 with Bet365 is absolutely massive! I'm 2pts e/w.
Next up we have BRIAN HARMAN. Up until the wind got the better of him on the greens at Renaissance on Sunday, he held the season record with Lucas Glover for most consecutive rounds in the 60s. His run of 11 brought to an end, surprisingly with the flat stick (his strongest weapon), but a lot of the putts missed were more lack of commitment and luck and he played brilliantly all week, as he has done for months now to finish 12th. Harman made his debut at the Open here in 2014 and an excellent 26th showed a real propensity for Links golf. He finished 19th at Royal St George and 6th last year at the home of golf, he is in form, he is a threat in majors and I really love the 125/1 8 places with Skybet this week and another 2pts e/w.
The last lefty is picked with 2 caveats. 1 the emotion of almost winning his home championship last week after 'that' shot on 18 to birdie the most difficult hole on the course, and also with the hope the wind gets up more than expected. ROBERT 'bob' McINTYRE did everything right last week only to be pipped by the genius of Rory Mcilroy. He looked an odds on winner after completing his round (at 14 under par) with a 64 in brutal conditions at the Scottish, and his response to pressure, his ball flight, control and also some very strong putting really blew me away. He is an absolute lock for the Ryder cup, and for me he was born to play Links golf. The popular and mercurial Scotsman will be a massive crowd favourite this week, and I hope the crowd can lift him to another strong showing. He's a skinny 60/1 this week and I'm putting up 3pts e/w top 8 with Bet365.
Cack handers aside it's a real open contest for live e/w chances this week and we start the last 3 picks with my chance of the week in VIKTOR HOVLAND. A lack of short game prowess seemed to hold the Hov back in big events up until this season, but after his brilliance at the Players finishing 3rd, a 7th at the Masters and a 2nd at the PGA in US Open style conditions, he beat off the world number 1 and a stellar field at Muirfield Village for his win, and his weaknesses have significantly lessened. Only Scottie Scheffler can boast better ball striking stats than VH, yet he is a strong putter, a steely bloke and he will be a contender this week like he has been in big events all season, especially given the softer conditions which should put less stress on his pitching and chipping. He's 20/1 with Bet365 and we go 8 points mob handed e/w.
Last weeks form does feed into this weeks selections, but in this instance with our next pick that is not by design, but last week reinforced that TOM KIM is back to near his best, and his short putting woes from 4-6ft have been fixed. He went into the final round at the Scottish with a 54 hole lead, and the chance to be the only player other than the GOAT to win 3 PGA Tour events before turning 21. After putting him up for his 2nd tour win at the Shriners early in the season TK hasn't had the stellar season expected, maybe over expectation and the search for extra length have blunted his game, but he bounced back to form at the US Open with a 4th place finish, and despite only finishing 6th last week, there was so much to admire about his approach to true links golf. He is 45/1 top 8 with Bet365 and we are 4pts e/w.
From not influenced by last week to very influenced, my last pick flopped terribly in the US Open, but after a poor few weeks I liked what I saw from the other Victor this week in VICTOR PEREZ. As I have mentioned previously on the US Open blog, he has a flair and swagger of a top player and a major champion elect, but he is very in and out, and up until last week he had been very much out of nick. He finished 34th at 4 under and was solid each day tee to green without holing anything of length to get him going. He is a winner of the 2019 Dunhill Links Championship and won the Abu Dhabi earlier in the year in breezy conditions so his prowess with his ball control and flight, coupled with his star quality are no bad thing. This is his 3rd Open and after narrowly missing the cut at Royal St Georges on debut, he trended nicely last year at St Andrews with a solid 34th place finish and he is massive odds this week so the last 1pt e/w goes on him, at a best priced 275/1 top 8 with Bet365.
In Summary Bet365 top 8 Unless specified
Viktor Hovalnd 8pts e/w 20/1
Tom Kim 4pts e/w 45/1
Bob Mcintyre 3pts e/w 60/1
Brian Harman 2pts e/w 125/1 Top 8 Skybet
Phil Mickelson 2pts e/w 225/1
Victor Perez 1pt e/w 275/1
TEWT
