As we head to the Honda this week at the Nicklaus course, now called Cognizent Classic at Palm Beach, we have some trauma to shake off as Aldrich Potgieter managed to allow professional tapper Brian Campbell into a play off. An ill fated play off in the end as Campbell managed to slice the ball out of bounds onto a tree back onto a cart path, back in play and onto a good lie, to eventually birdie the hole. Possibly the luckiest break I can recall seeing on a course, especially the timing of it, but also Potgieter's caddie giving him a wrong yardage on approach and then a wrong read on a 6 footer, it just wasn't meant to be, and small profit was taken instead of the big profit that looked so likely. I share a link to Spitting Image's song about his country which will cleanse you all of the anger, at the bottom of this write up.
I'm still reeling and I imagine some of you are too, but we head to Florida to the joys of the East coast swing, and to a course that is an absolute show stopper. It's brutal golf, a true accuracy test, a grind, and a tournament that should be made a signature event, to stop players avoiding it to protect their confidence. It's not long a Par 71 7167 Yards, but it demands accuracy off the tee and laser like iron play to avoid a lot of water, trees and sand, it truly is a test and I've always been confident here, but as yet haven't got the contenders I put up each year, over the line. Get the popcorn out and watch players round the bear trap, named after Mr Nicklaus himself, the par 3 15th over water with grandstands shielding players and the flag from wind directional tells, is a brute. The par 4 16th is a viscously tight tee shot to a small fairway, deep rough left but a watery grave right, players often take a long iron or fairway wood off the tee and leave an approach over the same water onto a small putting surface, what a par 4. The par 3 17th is another mid iron shot over water, with a green that sits at an angle across the players, a bail out into a back left bunker can leave no shot to a front pin, strategically and mentally, the players have to try and make par round this part of the course. Don't be surprised to see some 3 or 4 under front 9s and 5 and 6 over back 9s come Sunday, it's a great test of golf, and a great test of fortitude, they should have US Opens here, the PGA of America just do not rate this tournament, but why would they, they are money grabbing idiots.
Only 3 players inside the world's top 20 go to post (Straka, Lowry and Henley) and none in the top 15. It's still a decent line up as those guys ranked 30-80 all see this as a chance at a win, and there are quite a few course specialists here. We go 4 players this week at big prices again, I just can't be backing players at 18s who don't win often.
When the prices came out I ended up doing a re-write, Berger and Lowry were 1 and 2 this week but there is nothing in their prices. Shane keeps blowing chances here and at 18/1 he's just wrong, Berger blew his in 2015 in a play off and is still on a comeback so his 22/1 is way too short and Straka is a better bet than both of them but I've binned those 3 and Horschel off in favour of better value.
Length is meaningless here, because where there is distance, there is trouble, so it brings in the 1st selection. The US open pedigree of LUCAS GLOVER means he is a fit round here. His putting isn't quite what it was last year but it's still a lot better and his iron play suits this test amazingly well. He has a solid record here since 2018 despite huge putting issues, with a top 10 (4th) a top 20 and two top 30s, his game and his profile is a well trodden path for us thieves, and he is an obvious punt although I was expecting 30/1 he is 50/1 with most, so we are 6pts e/w with Hills 8 places, for an old school player on an old school layout.
Next up I'm sorry to say I can't get over my JAKE KNAPP addiction and he is a play again this week. He is not good off the tee, and that trend continued last week, but he finished 4th here last year in his first visit, and he is playing week in week out. He is getting off to slow starts in many events, yet his worst score on tour this year in 27 rounds is 74, and given some of the weather conditions and all the rounds at Torrey, it shows real consistency. He finished top 25 last week despite being not good, it's a mark of ability and his price forced me to stick with him. He's absolutely huge at 80/1 with Paddy Power and we go 3pts e/w, with no apologies.
The next selection and hail mary, is just a stab in the dark given a brief snippet of a return to form. At 500/1 TAYLOR MONTGOMERY doesn't suit here, but then again he didn't suit Sawgrass and contended for a long time in 2023, until an almost career ending capitulation stopped him in his tracks and cost him 2 million in the space of 45 mins. So form in Florida, and a 45th place finish last week are just intriguing. He is the best putter on planet earth, he's a bit wild, his iron play isn't great but if he can keep his ball dry for 4 days maybe he could sneak into the top 8, 500/1, Bet365 8 places 1pt e/w.
Our final selection is my number 1 selection this week so we are back to front. After several rewrites, changes of heart and price anomalies it just became wildly obvious that NICOLAI HOJGAARD was a profile fit for Palm Beach Gardens, and thus a pick here.
He's never been to the Nicklaus course, but after a 36th in Phoenix and 8th last week, the best iron player in the field excites me. He is a superstar, he was immense in the Ryder Cup and yet his price does not reflect his talent, and at 23 years old this is still a learning curve playing in America and no doubt he and his brother are camped over in the US to prep for the Ryder cup, where they are both very likely to play and play together. He did not play well in Florida last year missing cuts at the Arnold Palmer and Sawgrass, but Denny McCarthy is half his price and he's missed 6 of 7 cuts at this event, it doesn't make sense that he is 60/1 this week. He can hit quite a few 3 woods off the tee, and if he can stay disciplined from the tee box I'm excited, very excited about his chances, especially as his par 3 scoring is so strong. I'd say get on early because the 60/1 with Hills 8 places can't last. We go 5pts e/w on him, and there could be a Danish flag hanging out my window on Sunday night, seeing as I've wiped my backside on the South African flag and burnt it!
Go well TEWT
Comments