Bermuda Championship, Port Royal Golf Course, shit field
Is that summary enough?
Well let's say that on paper this looks as dull as dishwater and as far from high level golf as Cam Davis was on Saturday when he hit 6 inches behind the ball off the tee on 18. Anyway enough of that dickhead getting the yips after 2 and a half rounds, last week I got out of jail as I did put up 35points in the end by backing Aaron Wise but my good fortune can't go in the blog profits, I should have stuck my neck out so another losing week at the CJ Cup but a winning week for the PGA tour with not only it's flagship leader, Mcilroy, storming home for a brilliant win, but surely a venue which must be a roster regular, what a treat to see so little rough and such fast and firm conditions, it was an excellent watch.
So Dull it may be this week as a spectacle, but I think it's a fascinating week betting wise and there is a real opportunity to pick up profit.
Port Royal Golf course in Bermuda looks like a lovely resort, with spectacular vistas and views. At 6,842 Yards a par 71, with huge fairways and greens it should be an absolute birdie fest, despite the low quality field, but the course is defended by very high winds. Although this week we are only looking at 10-15mph we are also looking at rain, and as any golfer will tell you, wind and rain ain't no picnic. 30 under would be under threat here without the weather but this week I think the result will be built around adaptability, patience, bounce back stats and temperament.
Unsurprisingly my first 2 picks are regulars to the blog, my stubbornness and loyalty is also borne out of stats, trends and stand out profiles amongst the rest of the field.
First up we have the best iron player in the field who's accuracy in approach play will be the key to going very close this week. I expected to see Denny McCarthy and Nick Hardy as co-favourites this week, so imagine my surprise when I see that I can get 25/1 for Nick top 8 with Hills, which is cracking value for a guy who burst onto the big stage at the US Open last year and has a 5th place to his name already in the wrap around at the Sanderson farms. 4 points each way 25/1 top 8 with Hills.
Next up we have Patrick Rogers again. Pat had some great thursday/friday starts last year when put up and fell away, a prodigy player in college he has so much unfulfilled potential and is by far and away the most talented player in the field. He's 30 now, and I just think seeing out his 20s maybe his maturity will find a way to discover his ability to be a top player. He came 4th here last year, he's up against also rans and something must click sometime soon.....is it a stretch, maybe. Is he my new Zanahiyr cliff edge type nag (non horse racing fans won't get that but I told the world it would win for 18 months and I'm still waiting!), maybe. At 28/1 top 8 with Hills I'm having 3pts each way on him.
If it's going to rain and blow then why not lob a Jock in the mix, but I would say Russell Knox has more going for himself this week than his nationality. Now Russel sounds about as Scottish as I do Chinese, but this Florida resident grew up in Inverness, so wind and rain in 20 degrees is like a busmans holiday for this lad. He has some solid form already this season with a couple of top 25s despite being absolutely gash off the tee. This week he can hit it literally anywhere off the tee, so his all-round game after that will see him up there I have no doubt, and at 33/1 top 6 with Skybet I'm going 3pts each way.
Lastly this week we stay in the British Isles and a lad who had a breakthrough year last year in America and in majors Callum Tarren. A Darlo lad, Callum is a late developer at 32, after years on the Korn Ferry tour he never looked like breaking through, but a 30th place at the Honda last year followed by 31st in the US open weeks later set him on a path to qualifying for the play offs, with a total 3 top 10s last season. He started the wrap around with a 13th place at the Sanderson farms and even two missed cuts since can't put me off in a field like this on a course where he can overcome the conditions if he doesn't shoot a 77 and sign for the wrong score like he did last year. He's a gritty player and that Northern grit is what I am banking on with him back at Bermuda with some scores to settle. 50/1 top 6 with Skybet 3pts e/w.
In a break from tradition this week will see a small each way double put up as I think Nicolai Hojgaard is thrown in, in Portugal, in the wide open plains of the Algarve. A rare talent and a wild stud of a player I do think he is huge odds this week on the DP World Tour so I am putting up a 2pt each way double with Nick Hardy.
So 2pts Each way Hardy 25/1 top 8 in Bermuda and 20/1 Nicolai Hojgaard top 6 in The Portugal Masters.
In Summary for Bermuda:
Nick Hardy 4pts ew 25/1 top 8 Hills
Pat Rodgers 3pts ew 28/1 top 8 Hills
Russell Know 3pts e/w 33/1 top 6 Skybet
Callum Tarren 3pts ew 50/1 ctop 6 Skybet
2pts Hardy/Hojgaard ew double with Hills