It's here. New Year, proper start to the season and the first regular open event on the PGA tour begins this week, at Wai'alea Country Club in Hawaii.
Fortunately last week got left alone, non cut invite events are tricky and give little value (see Play offs last year!), so the money making machine that is the Thief begins this week in earnest, with a very short price, very fancied, and very familiar number one pick.
This week we are looking at a 7044yard Par 70, a short, yet tight track that demands accuracy tee to green. Despite this last years winner, Hideki Matsuyama, led the field in SG putting......but, that aside, if you can't keep it straight and in play the putter will be irrelevant. Last week gave some good clues as to who is sharp and who is not. At the head of the market Sung Jae Im putted like a blind man on the titanic, Jordan Speith has got the full on Tom Watson's nowadays inside 3 feet and a fair few players were feast or famine as they shot good score, bad score, good score, bad score. Like many avid golf fans this side of the water, I turned the TV off before midnight as I wasn't giving my time up to watch Morikawa win by 6. Imagine my surprise to see the result the next day, Rahm must have been 250s when I went to bed, but to see that Morikawa had bogeyed 4 on the spin and Rahm ripped up the back 9 was a real surprise. I don't think it's a heavy loss long term for Morikawa, and he goes on the plus list for the Majors, his iron play is back and if he continues to putt with such confidence he will be very hard to beat. Rahm was, is and will always be brilliant, he has such an all round game but is seldom value, and for a level stake he won't be making anyone but himself and his caddie rich! In behind were the stories for this week. I was keen to see how Henley, Connors, Homa, Power, Horschel, Wise and Tom Kim fared as they were on the short list this week, Henley especially, who was excellent here last year and they all played solid stuff. Although the coverage wasn't the best I've also had to look at Strokes Gained Tee to Green, but again last week's test in a windy wide open Maui is very different to this weeks still, sunny tight test.
So I've rattled on and nobody reads that rubbish so onto the 4 picks for this week.
First up is the mercurial young talent that is Tom Kim. A two time winner at 20, the lad has only one weakness in his game, yet his lack of distance with the driver won't hurt him at all this week. He is so accurate, so mature and so consistent that even at 11/1 absolutely everywhere he can't be overlooked. He's a big layout 7pts e/w 11/1 this week top 8 Skybet.
This week more than ever, with the middle of the field being so tightly packed I could have done with 8 picks, but 2nd of 4 this week is the impressive Tom Hoge. He had to wait until his 32nd year to find that star quality that his ball striking deserves, yet despite his very average putting, he has proven himself week in week out on tour for the last 12 months, culminating at his win at Pebble last spring. Showing he is fiercely accurate with his irons and not afraid to win a big event. This time last year he would have been 125/1 but even at 22/1 he is taken to go close at a place that fits his unairing accuracy. 3pts e/w top 8 Skybet.
Next in line is another guy who isn't the longest off the tee, but consistency means he is a perennial contender at this kind of events. Billy Horschel needs no introduction really, but at 28/1 he will do me for some place money top 8 with Skybet. His ability with driver and 3 wood to put the ball in play should see him get plenty of opportunities so he get's 3 pts e/w of the pot.
Last but by no means least sees me turn my back on several fancies. Prices are very compressed, many players are very short and low on value between 25 and 40/1 when normally they would be double that so I've pulled one from the back end. Ben Griffin played 65 holes brilliantly at the Bermuda last year, until he fell apart under pressure to finsih tied 3rd as Seamus Power stayed on strong to win. Seamus was a pick this week but doesn't go here, and after leaving golf to work as a mortgage broker, Griffin is very novicey, but has shown huge progress to gain a tour card after finishing 15th on the Korn Ferry tour, thanks to 3 runner up performances. I do think the loss in Bermuda will be a positive, he didn't handle himself well, but he's 26, he's only been playing man's golf for 5 years and he has a profile on the up. So at 100/1 top 8 with Skybet he's getting 2pts each way to play solid tee to green golf in the Pacific Sun.
Quick name check to Brian Harman, he just missed out to Hoge this week, he is a brilliant 3 wood hitter and putter so he will be the one I'm running scared from.
In summary we start the season with the following:
Tom Kim 7pts e/w 11/1 Skybet
Tom Hoge 3pts e/w 22/1 Skybet
Billy Horschel 3pts e/w 28/1 Skybet
Ben Griffin 2pts e/w 100/1 Skybet
Always gamble responsibly....and remember this isn't gambling, it's stealing from the bookies lol!
