So the 2nd Major of the year at Southern Hills in Tulsa, the PGA Championship, welcomes the biggest field in golf and probably the most competitive field in golf. So it's a wide open contest? NO. In 2018 this 7566 Par 70 underwent some changes mainly to the greens but also some fairway widening and tree removal. Some say it's a bombers course but this week in my opinion it's about spin and lag putting. The USGA have chosen a course with very little rough which makes the greens very small, with run off areas everywhere. It's a dry week so hopefully the greens will be firm and fast and if so 10 under could be the winning score. Any rain makes it less of a spectacle. I'm only laying out 5 players this week but there are 10 and 12 places on offer so watch out for some thievery and value at some players at big odds, and some that are coming right back into form at the right time.
Yesterday the dreadful spectacle of birdies and eagles went to KH Lee for the second time in 2 years, I watched most of Sunday but I don't think I've ever been more bored watching golf. 14 players shot 20under or better and 45, yes 45, shot 15under or better. What a snooze fest, very little challenge anywhere, huge wide open fairways, massive greens and a plethora of driveable par 4s and easy on in 2 5s, no thanks, next year I'll switch off if it stays at Craig Ranch, shame on the USGA! 1pt profit with JT looking good all week and my eyes have told me he is the man this week. A couple of other picks are also taken from last week, with form and confidence on the up, or trending as it's known these days.
Defending champion the Scheff will be bang ready again this year, Tiger is on course now practising, Rahm off the back of an unconvincing W but a W nonetheless and Jordan going for the grand slam are some of the stories this week.
Some take-aways from last week into this; DJ still has a two way miss, he was 46% driving accuracy and he has almost no hope next week unless he throws his Driver away (or flies with Thomas Cook as they are 1 for 1 in shaft snapping with my driver). Scottie S looked cool and ready to contend after a short lay off, Schauffelle looks nailed on to be in contention and Jordan has never driven the ball this well in his life. Up until about 9pm last night he was on the list, but after just missing an 10 footer for birdie his 3 footer back, where he couldn't decide whether to look at the hole or not just put the willys up me, I'll be cheering him on, but on a course where 3-5 feet par putts will be in abundance I just can't trust him. The other take-aways are in my selections, so I'll start with the players from that list.
Pick number one is again JT. Justin Thomas is the prince of spin (RIP the KING S K Warne), his control of distance and spin is a thing of beauty. He hasn't won for 14 months, but his lag putting and some lovely mid range putts yesterday instilled me with so much confidence. He's not one for winning tournaments with huge Under par scores, he loves a challenge and I just think he is such a good thing this week so 16/1 9 places with Hills he is the big bet of the week 6pts e/w.
Next on the trending list is a man who has always driven like god but has been a phenomenal improver with his putting. Jason Kokrak 80/1 9 places 2pts e/w is the 2nd pick. I think he'll bomb it straight and long which means if his wedge and short iron play holds up he will give himself looks and also as someone full of beans about his short stick I see good things (and hopefully not dead people). The 6ft4 bomber from Ohio could one day win a major!
Another family favourite and sleeper from last week is Emiliano Grillo. Another who has tremendous control of spin, can hit it both ways (by design not my idea of both ways) and is a streaky putter. He missed more cuts than a blind tree surgeon up to a few weeks ago and he was at rock bottom, but after a solid few weeks and a return to some form last week, the mercurial Argentinian is a mouth-watering 150/1 if he gets in to the field this week....and that is an if - as he stands well outside the top 150 on the fedex and OWGR. If he makes it I'll be 2.5pts e/w at 150/1 9 places but wait until Thursday morning before placing.
So 3rd official pick (assuming Grillo doesn't make it) is another favourite of mine and familiar name from recent weeks, Cameron Young. What to say about this guy that hasn't already been said. Hits it long, good iron player, good short game, good putter, real competitor, there are no weaknesses, 3pts e/w 90/1 9 places for the diminutive New Yorker, do not miss out when the W comes his way, and it can't be long.
One who isn't on any tracker, sleeper or trending list is the king of his own swing and spin. The mercurial, legendary player who if I had to pay to watch anyone play golf, live, anywhere ever is the man, the one, the only, Gerry 'Bubba' Watson. If you don't know about this guy maybe you should be reading Danielle Steele novels rather than this, 2 times Masters champ, 3 times Riviera winner, and someone who loves it inland in the heat (and you don't get more inland than Oaklahoma) Bubba shouldn't be on any list or anywhere near a tipping blog, but I love the man, after Speith and Tiger he's my favourite player and at 200/1 top 10 on betfair sportsbook I'll be getting my 2pts e/w on with someone who can place. He loves slick greens, he has great spin control and the test of such severe sloped greens with run offs like this will drive his imagination (I hope) he's too big to turn down, especially as SG off the tee he is elite level, come on Gerry!
Last but by no means least (6th pick if Grillo gets in but I doubt it) is the joke price of the week. I've tried to go horses for courses and he wasn't on the shortlist but this game is more about wrong prices than picking short priced winners and 20/1 shot places - and yet again it's a repeat. Cameron Champ is in form, placed 10th at the masters, 6th in Mexico where a dopey triple cost him the chance of winning, he's well and truly over the wrist injury and I'm thinking he will have so many short irons in his hand next week that average iron play and chipping won't be adversely tested too often. He is a major champion elect and after a week in the middle of the field last week just testing his body again I love his chances at 125/1 9 places 2pts e/w with hills.
In summary bets below, just a shout out to Charl Schwartzel who looked very good last week with the long putter (but I don't trust his pace control on the long ones), Collin Morikawa who could win by 10, and Victor Hovland (who is too short to put up). Enjoy the week, and come on Jordan for the grand slam.
Justin Thomas 6pts e/w 16/1
Jason Korak 2pts e/w 80/1
Cameron Young 3pts e/w 90/1
Bubba Watson 2pts e/w 200/1
Cameron Champ 2pts e/w 125/1
(Grillo if he makes entry) 2.5pts 150/1 e/w
30pts lay out. No in running betting included.
