So after a guessy and subsequent poor end to the season courtesy of the play offs we go again. So from last season there are certain take aways:
1 Dont back DP tour events unless I've put the work in.
2 Stop backing Grillo or just back him every week
3 Look for value but back players on form and visuals rather than their price on the rag
4 Leave the play off final alone and any event with under 70 runners
For a season of schooling, development and growth a 314 point profit was pretty decent, but whilst this is just for fun I'd impress on followers to not skip weeks or put their own variations on my picks,without realising profit can'tbe guaranteed, because the point system and odds are devised to create a winning margin.
So enough of that nonsense, I'm writing this on my phone on a lounger in Ibiza (the nice part) and the buzz of a few strong players in the Shriners this week, and Mojitos have got the juices flowing.
Cantlay comes here as massive favourite being the top ranked player in the field, on the back of a strong Presidents cup and on a course he would want to roll up and take everywhere with him. His 3 starts here at TPC Summerlin go 1st 2nd and 2nd and the shame is that he and Bryson aren't going head to head, in what for 3 years was a 2 man event. The absence of the fat weightlifter on tour is a miss, his innovation and his fear of ant hills do provide us with something different but as he is now playing the pop and crisps tour let's call it his loss not ours and move on.
So TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas 7255yard Par 71 hosts and with great weather predicted the small greens and decent length should prove no match for the Pros. In a birdie fest week usually putting is to the fore, but the smaller surfaces may be best suited to the ball strikers rather than the top rollers. Denny McCarthy misses out for that reason as he is on the shortlist most weeks but this is about the men not the nearly men. First pick of the season is probably the most exciting prospect on tour right now and Tom Kim is a very appealling price at 22/1. After getting a temporary membership on tour he took 3 starts to win, and also went close at the Renaissance club in Berwick in Links conditions, proving he has the game for all conditions and he is dripping in star quality. I just dont see 20s or more being against his name for long. He is an iron and putting machine and smaller target golf will see him romp into a place at least this week to build up the pot. 7pts e/w 22/1 8 places Skybet.
Next up is a guy who came into view in the US open at Brookline. He drives well and putts well and with a 5th place finish last week (which saw some really solid approach play) and a growing reputation I did expect Nick Hardy to be much shorter than his price this week. I'm 3 pts e/w 60/1 8 places with Hills.
5 picks this week so I will go in order of selection. Small greens and a week of excellent ball striking always sees me reaching for the odds of 4 men (pre pop and crisps tour). Pat Perez, Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman and my pick this week Kevin Streelman. A good start last week and seeing him looking as youthful and fit as ever, Streel's ball striking is a thing of beauty that doesnt quite yield the top places but in B level fields he is a leading fancy for me and at 110/1 8 places with Skybet I'm 2points each way.
Next up is the guy with the biggest fade on tour and after a week in the cold, wind and rain last week I'm picking Alex Noren to enjoy his week and take his form from his 2nd place last week on the Links in Scotland to here. A one time winning machine Noren has found inconsistency and injury in the last couple of seasons but if he's healthy then he is dangerous and his iron play is to die for. 45/1 8 places 2pts e/w Hills.
Last and definitely least is the big odds speculative pick for the week (Jimmy Walker 125s being my biggest ever odds winner) is David Lingmerth. DL seemed to have got close to defeating the putting yips last season and found himself in strong positions at weekends in the 2nd half of the season. Is he going to win again, probably not on this tour, but he is only 35 and although he has lost his full privileges on tour
this 3 time winner former top 50 player is having 1 point each way at 400/1 8 places with skybet.
Ideally we can pick up where we left off but early season is an unknown. Look out for the lads who have been on the presidents cup teams, Bezeidenhuit, Pendrith, Davis, Si woo, trends will become more clear as the weeks go by.
In summary
Tom Kim 22/1 7pts ew Skybet 8 places
Nick Hardy 60/1 3pts ew Hills 8 Places
Kevin Streelman 110/1 2pts ew Skybet 8 places
Alex Noren 45/1 2pts ew Hills 8 places
David Lingmerth 400/1 1pt ew Skybet 8 places