So this week is one of those events on the PGA tour that does it no favours. PGA West 2 courses and La Quinta open the West coast swing. They are good looking tracks, lots of water, lots of manicuring and it'll be lots of birdies. Hit to one point, hit to the next, rinse and repeat. Very little will be a challenge the cut is generally 7 under and the winning score in the mid 20s under. As a spectacle I'm not looking forward to it, but as a betting event I have found it easy to pick 4 this week.
Before this weeks picks lets get the excuses in for last week. If you gave me 25 picks from the field I would only have considered Hayden Buckley, who finished 2nd, out of the top 10. Si Woo Kim was a good thing on the final day as he didn't break his putter or throw any toys out the pram which helps him get over the line. The rest of those that placed I couldn't have had my worst enemies money on! Ben Griffin looked like he may have given the book a nice boost but he played conservative golf on the Sunday finishing tied 12th. Tom Kim, one of the best putters in the game, THE up and coming talent on tour, ended up stone last in putting last week and missed the cut by a mile.....in a field that had Lucas Glover in it!!!!! I won't be giving up on him, he is a true talent and coming to a blog near you soon.
So the 3 course are played with a cut after 3 rounds, the same as the AT&T pro-am at Pebble, each player is paired with an amateur for these 3 rounds, so usually, tournament experience is a must. The final round is played at PGA West Pete Dye on the stadium course, but the players must embrace the 5 and a half hour rounds and partnering some rich wankers and celebrities. John Rahm at 5/1 is way too short this week, despite being the form pony in the field. Dress it up how you like, he doesn't like people so he's an instant no (yes I know he has won here before but he's grumpier and grumpier every year - which I can familiarise with). It's a strong field, but out of the 6 players on the trending list this week, 4 are playing, so thanks to Corey Connors and Seamus Power for making my work easier!
Conditions look to be mild, light wind, 18 degrees and average paced greens, with some rain over the weekend gone making greens receptive. It's target golf for the pro's mixed in with some friendly pin positions for the amateurs, so despite the rough being put up it will still be low scoring. There is a hint of repetition this week as my first pick is unapologetically, TOM HOGE. Hoge's wedge play was right off last week, he got into some great positions off the tee but just didn't hit the ball close enough all week and finished mid-field. He is one of the form players in world golf these days, and like last week, his accuracy will be key to him having the multiple chances he needs as an average putter. His 3rd week on Bermuda greens is the angle, as are his last appearances here. His numbers are 2nd, MC and 6th, and his price this week is a whopping 35/1 top 8 with Sky Bet. He is my number one pick, but a word of warning I could not see a way he came outside the top 10 last week, and I feel the same this. 4pts e/w.
Next up in no order of preference is the outsider of the 4. LUKE LIST hit's a big ball, and for years he's been a great driver of the golf ball with no short game to match, but in recent times he's found some improvement to the tune of a shot a round Strokes gained putting. His stats are 202nd on tour, he is from the Lingmerth/Grillo mould, so maybe I've chosen another wrong hill to die on. His putting is on the up though, so an average week on the greens will see him near the top of the leaderboard in my opinion, as his ball striking, coupled with his length make him very appealing at 125/1 top 8 with SkyBet. 2pts each way investment. The caveat, which makes me look insane, that his form here is MC, MC, MC and 22nd...but the 22nd place came last year and he has been steadily improving since.
3rd pick this week SUNG-JAE IM. If you don't know who he is, then you've been under a rock. Sung Jae has a stellar record here...and he plays almost every week so has a good record most places! His last 4 appearances here are 11th, 12th, 10th, 12th, but the handle in to him for me, is that he has reduced his schedule. For the last 2 years his schedule has been crazy, he plays almost every week and how he maintained such elite level consistency is amazing as much as it would always been unsustainable. He has started slowly thus far in the wrap around, but the 24 year old has played the last 2 weeks, and despite some off the tee issues last week at the Sony, I think he is warming up to a strong challenge this week so he is the big layout of the week 6pts e/w top 8 Skybet 20/1,
My last pick this week is no stranger to the blog. With a team of average putters these guys need a boost with a pick who runs hot with the flat stick. Is it Mav McNealy? No. Denny McCarthy? No. Travis Vick? No......it's the man again, TAYLOR MONTGOMERY. Taylor is having a blast on tour and every week seems to be a top 20 with a brief foray into a lead or near to a lead. Thus far his first season on tour after graduating from the Korn Ferry is pretty awesome. Here are his stats in all starts; 3rd, 9th, 15th, 13th, 10th, 57th, 15th and 12th. He is better than decent off the tee and putts like God. Any one of the 57 gods in the world, pick one, he's it. In fact there should be 58 gods, and when he wins I want to be on him, and he is making me a believer (praise the laaaaard). He is in the Cam Young mould in that he won't be around the odds we can get him at now, but I'm not looking for a 2nd place with this guy, I want a win, and this week, with the help of the light hearted nature of playing with an amateur, hopefully not some twat from Hollywood, he will go close. At 40/1 he is huge for top 8 3 points with Skybet.
Finally I'm pleased to see Billy Horschel taking a week off. I watched almost 3/4's of his shots last week and he made me feel good about a two way miss. I've NEVER seen Billy hit it so bad, and having found out about his swing changes, I won't be backing him ever again until he learns to drop his hands. He's going the Rickie Fowler route and it will not end well....so come on Billy, get it fecked off and go back to what you know. Quick shout out to Rickie, he will be on the short list this season, now he is back with Butch and Claude I'm genuinely excited to see how he goes, golf has missed him, I've missed him, maybe there is a blockbuster story in him at the Majors this year.
In summary
Tom Hoge 4pts each way 35/1 Skybet
Luke List 2pts each way 125/1 Skybet
Sung Jae Im 6pts each way 20/1 Skybet
Taylor Montgomery 3pts each way 40/1 Skybet
