I'd urge any first time readers of this blog to go back to lasts weeks writing and read the section marked Villegas!
If Carlsberg (other beers that taste like piss are available) did Sundays, then yesterday was one of them. Apart from Matti Schmid (one for the notebook - what a golf swing btw) there were absolutely no dangers as we went into the final 9 with the top 2 players, and although Noren played ok, destiny, inspiration and fate were only with one man. The speech Camillo gave after his win was so full of class, I think I love the bloke even more now, and at anything from 100-150s for followers and Noren's each way returns, it was a fantastic week for the 2024 coffers and yet another strong start for the thief.
The question is when will it end? These things are cyclical, but where as we had a few bits of luck last season and some play off wins, last week was a no-brainer for a Villegas place. Like the other 3 figure win we have had to date, Brian Harman, no luck was needed, class was indeed the telling factor and it was oh so comfortable.
This week we swap the heat and tranquillity of Bermuda, to the overcast conditions of Sea Island resort in Georgia. A parkland by the sea (similar to my own course of Cleethorpes), this place is protected by the wind and the wind only, and at just 7,060 yards, this par 72 throws up the headache, that anyone could win here. Traditionally accuracy and putting win round here, so shorter hitters will love a rare foray into such conditions, and with 8-12mph winds forecast control and accuracy will once again win the day here.
I make zero apologies for the repetition this week, but form at this stage of the season, in the final event of the Autumn 125 bubble (where the top 125 players gain a tour card for 2024) is everything, and those playing for their mortgage will not be top of the list. Often player's form at certain courses is a key element in play for selection, but this week a blind man (or woman - #me2) could plot their way around here with a distance golf ball and some rented irons. Something 20 under or better will do the job this week, so putting, and sharpness mould the picks, here goes.
First up, and my key trending player for this time of year finally comes at a backable price. JJ SPAUN looked close to becoming a world top 25 player last Autumn and he, along with Homa were on the radar for 2023. Things haven't gone to plan though and an average season has been blighted by a putter colder than a penguins bollock. Last season a string of top 20s, including here, looked to be taking him ever closer towards a 2nd tour victory, but despite a top 5 at the Sentry it didn't materialise and he has now dropped to 88th in the OWGR. He didn't putt great last week, but he loves these greens and a 15th and 16th place in the last two renewals here and light at the end of the slump tunnel have me excitingly investing 4pts e/w 45/1 top 8 with Hills.
Next up it's groundhog day. Many would think that after contending the last 2 weeks and winning, that CAMILLO VILLEGAS would be a) knackered and b) short odds-wise. Well he is full of life, fit and firing and somehow the odds compilers I called out last week have kept their jobs. He is an outrageous price STILL, and is currently the form player in world golf. His ball control would be heightened by some stronger winds this week, but still, his putting and accuracy, talent and coolness are so appealing that I worry my investment isn't big enough. 60/1 top 8 with Hills this week, someone needs to be fired, let's hope it's off the back of yet another strong week, 4points e/w pile in!
Next up we go in again with TAYLOR MONTGOMERY. My opinion has not changed from 2 weeks ago, he is creeping back into form. This week may become a putting comp, and the best putter on Earth has a game made to go low here, and at 70/1 again I wondered if I should be going bigger this week. 70/1 8 places with Hills, we go again 3points e/w.
Another repeat and I wonder after breaking the PGA tour record for most fairways hit consecutively, during last weeks tournament, ADAM LONG just has to warm that putter up. Again, there is no need to re-type last weeks synopsis, he's 80/1 7 places with Bet365 and we throw 3 points at him.
Now last up isn't anything clever, special or nuanced. 2 time champion here ROBERT STREB, is one of those players who does nothing well and nothing poorly. He won this 2 years ago, and also won here in 2014 (they are his only 2 PGA tour victories) when this was the McGladrey Classic. His lack of length won't hurt him here, he must get a great feeling driving onto the property and the old boys do ok here (he's 36 going on 56). He has been poor this season and only a win will get him a card (which means he won't feel too much pressure), but despite missing cut after cut this season, he has made 6 out of his last 10 cuts, so there is an uplift in form. He's 225/1 top 7 with Bet365 so he gets the last remaining 1 point e/w this week.
Good luck to all followers, and remember only bet what you can afford.......which if you follow this blog, is an absolute boat load of wonga.
TEWT
In Summary:
JJ Spaun 4points e/w 45/1 Hills 8 places
Villegas 4points e/w 60/1 Hills 8 places
Montgomery 3pts e/w 70/1 Hills 8 places
Long 3pts e/w 80/1 Bet365 7 places
Streb 1pt e/w 225/1 Bet365 7places
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