It's Pebble beach time everyone. The start of the season for real, and a proper field heads to the Pro Am at Pebble for a test with the sun, cold, the rain and frighteningly small targets. It's a week where course stats don't need to be researched, where form can go out the window and where the old girl at Pebble can have teeth even if it is a little damp. It's an old school course, short, decent sized fairways and tiny greens with slopes to make your pubes turn grey, and 4 old school golfers are in the mix this week (and 1 crazy hail mary) with the hope that Schauffelle and Scheffler are a bit rusty. 1 round at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula and then a final round at Pebble presents the test this week, and an 80 player no cut (you wanker Monaghan) event should see a score around 14-18 under par win the day. Spyglass Generally plays the more difficult layout, as the other coastal course, as it is slightly longer and lightly tighter from the tee, but in order to win here you have to play Pebble well twice and that is the play (along with shooting Monterey in the 60s).
First up is the value of the week, as winner 2 weeks ago, winner here in 2020 and gun iron player NICK TAYLOR brings his milkshake to yard. He was bang out of form last year and had a horror show on Spyglass in awful conditions but generally his record here is excellent and he is playing the kind of golf that he can win with (12th, 1st, 48th in 3 events so far), and he loves the West Coast (perennial contender here and in Phoenix). 70th, 21st, 14th, 39th, 1st is his record here and he is 14th on tour SG approach, which is everything this week. For an 80 man field his odds of 70/1 7 places are mind blowing and we are 3pts e/w this week with Hills/PP/Betfair take your pick.
Next up another classic player and to my mind the best Iron player on tour right now, and although stats say 21st on tour, my eyes tell me something very different. JASON DAY has never been the longest or straightest driver, but his approach play is superb and he putts like god inside 10 feet (which is much needed on these Poa-Annua slopes). It is quite the surprise he hasn't won here given it's classic layout. His record here is an absolute joke, 6th, 24th, 7th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 5th, 11th, 4th, 64th, 6th, that is all we need to know, and this could be the week as I've never seen him looking this fit and healthy since 2015! It's a big investment because he's almost a bet to nothing and the most likely winner in our selections is 7pts e/w who also came 21st at the 2019 US Open here. 33/1 on offer 7 places with Hills, and fill your boots.
The experienced squad goes into the 3 figure mode now and number 3 is another course specialist and someone who has won here recently and plays well in the biggest events. The way JUSTIN ROSE hits his irons is something we should all see live in our lifetimes, and a winner here 2 years ago his game fits this place like a hand in a glove. There is nothing I can say about this bloke that a golf fan won't know, he will probably play with Justin Timberlake again and they have a relaxed time together which helps. He blew the cobwebs off last week but missed the cut as he got gale forced, impossible conditions on the South Course after a promising start, and his record here is again, impressive. 11th, 1st, 62nd, (3rd at the 2019 US Open) in recent times, he is a massive 125/1 this week and 8 places with Coral and we are 2pts e/w.
Last of the old boys, the classically dressed and back to his best BILLY HORSCHEL is of great e/w interest. His results aren't anything to write home about this season so far, but his game has looked good in patches and he's a sleeper pick. He hasn't played here since the 2019 US Open and he hasn't played in this event since missing the cut in 2018, but he plays well in Phoenix 1st week in Feb, and again loves a big event. This comp was usually a fad, with it being a Pro-Am and Billy needs winding up to hit his best, but with the best 80 players on tour and strong crowds expected his juices could flow enough to see him into a place at 125/1 and we go again 2pts e/w with Hills.
Last but by no means least, So Cal dude and recent blog pick JAKE KNAPP makes another appearance. It's a hunch, but I was interested to see his price this week and it is unfathomable. Pebble wouldn't necessarily suit his game, and he is vastly inexperienced, but I cannot-not use 1 point on him this week at the odds. Hills and others have him at 300/1 7 places, it's speculative, but it can't be ignored. I think next week is a better event for him, but he won't be 300s there........who knows.
TEWT
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