This week we head to Detroit for another dour birdie fest on one of the less inspiring layouts on tour. Detroit Golf club has held this event for the last 4 years, and this tree lined course with emphasis off the tee has yielded winning scores of 26, 18, 23 and 25 under par as middling fields take this place apart. Measuring 7370 yards when stretched this mixture of 17 holes from the North Course and one from the South will show very little to no teeth unless the wind blows. That said, after storms ripped through Detroit over the weekend there may be some 10-15mph out there to confuse some of the players and maybe keep scores to 20 under. The storms did also bring rain though and up until writing this it's been wet, and when greens get wet, players can score and if these greens are wet, the only problems these guys will have is taking spin off the ball as they will be firing darts this week.
Going into the weekend last week we could have had any one of a number of our selections in contention but Henley should have done better (too many errors), Aberg was still showing some 'green/novicey' tendencies and Matsuyama may as well been trying to putt his ball into a 1" hose pipe. The latter finishing 1 shot off a place, but if I'm honest after watching a few hours Thursday, Friday and 20mins Saturday I couldn't be bothered to watch Sunday, given that the course was so utterly defenseless and predictable. Surely that is the end for TPC River Highlands, if it isn't it may well be a week off for the blog in 24, as every player in the field had a chance of winning last week, I'd have had as much chance at Royal Ascot, and my flat knowledge could be written on a pin head.
So heading into this week there is a spread as it does appear quite trappy, but given that this is a regular field, with many top players taking a well earned rest, there is good value on a lot of players and many players had to go off the shortlist, in what was the most difficult decision to come up with 5 out of a potential 19 players shortlisted. The likes of Hayden Buckley, Ben Griffin, Ben Taylor, Mark Hubbard, Kevin Yu, SH Kim all have given me a real headache, but I'm not stretching the investment.
As I mentioned at the start this is a first shot course, so straight driving is the key round here. It isn't long, it isn't hard, but any punishment to be had is from the tee.
Given that fact, I keep the faith with the Japanese maestro again, who's shot tracers look like frozen rope when he is on. HIDEKI MATSUYAMA is best priced 18/1 with Skybet this week, and these small targets may mean his putting weaknesses are not as exposed. He's everything you want and more in a winner and he is trending, he's fit and he should go close. 6pts e/w 18/1 Skybet (Top 8).
My first pick of the week is next, the first name on the sheet when I saw no Keith Mitchell in the field. WILL GORDON has had a poor year given his obvious talent, but I watched him play a fair bit in Canada on that tight, tree lined layout and had him right in my thoughts for this. I was very worried last week seeing his numbers, but I'm just hoping that horseshit track didn't suit him, and this week if he pulls the driver and cuts some corners off these dog legs he could be value. I've got 125/1 top 8 with Skybet and I'm 2pts e/w on the big lad, who's big stick is a real weapon and could reduce this place to nothing.
Next up after a lot of soul searching and forgiveness I've landed on CAM DAVIS. Now like Wyndham Clark (yeah well done Richo nailed his profile previously), I swore never to burn money on him again, and humble pie, lessons learnt and a need for SG off the tee had him in my crosshairs and I just cant shake him. He's the best driver in the field this week, he won this 2 years ago, finished 14th last year when in a slump and I just hope his arse doesn't drop out of his trousers come Saturday when he will be in the mix before tee off. His form hasn't been great this season,but he has played well at the Players, The Heritage and the PGA where accuracy off the tee is everything. I didn't know how to price him up, but in this field 33s in most places I'm 4pts e/w with Skybet (top 8).
We now jump from the front of the market to the high end where the thieves go scavenging and 3 players made the first cut.
A small investment this week on a blog regular JUSTIN SUH. I've written him up a lot this year, a great amateur and prospect he's another 10 years away from being Patrick Rodgers, such was the hype around this lad when he was the World's number one amateur. Like Eric Cole, Suh saw the Honda as breakthrough event this season and there is still some juice left to squeeze out of his game, not to mention he has only missed 1 cut in his last 23 events on tour. He's never been here before but this is a run of the mill event, course and field he could make his name in, and at 70/1 with Hills, top 8, he's a 2pt e/w investment.
Last but by no means least I'm picking someone who likes the course and who has a stellar record round here. This pick does come with a health warning though, and the 1pt is as far as I could stretch for TROY MERRITT. Troy's season has been utter filth this year. His numbers and the amount of missed cuts almost keep me awake at night, and judging by his twitter it's definitely doing that to him. However, and it's a biggy, since he shot even par and missed the cut here in 2019, he has never shot below 15 under here since and he has finished, 8th, 2nd (lost in a play off) and 14th. He's had a hole in one here and something gets his juices flowing (2 juice references this week, so 1 too many), it's horses for courses. So his 250/1 odds with Skybet has to have 1pt e/w for top 8.
In summary (all top 8 Skybet unless specified)
Hideki Matsuyama 18/1 6pts e/w
Cam Davis 33/1 4pts e/w
Justin Suh 70/1 2pts e/w Hills
Will Gordon 125/1 2pts e/w
Troy Merritt 250/1 1pt e/w
