Greetings from the thief, a day late this week, as I took some time to pick myself off the floor after a bad week last week. Speith getting DQ'd, Young putting like a drain, Hojgaard driving with L Plates on and Kitayama doing un Kitayama things, it was not a going week. These things happen, we've had so many good weeks but considering how brilliant the tournament was, it was disappointing that we never had any financial interest, and also disappointing that 2 of my favourite players in Hideki and Will Z went from 0 -100mph after injuries, to show class that I was expecting to come much later in the spring. Hideki especially, who I think looks like he's putting better than ever, has ruined my Masters and Bay Hill odds, and Will, who has remodelled his swing to save his back, has showed what an outstanding talent he is, and his golf IQ is such, that maybe this year he has that major in him.
As we head to Mexico this week, to Vidanta Vallarta, the name Tony Finau is on everyone's lips and on the frown lines of every bookies face. If Scheffler can go off at 4/1 in a comp with a putter colder than Moira Hindley's lips, then Finau's 15/2 is very generous in a comp at this course, where he has a total aggregate of 40 under par for his last 7 rounds. Last year's winner and 2nd to Rahm in 2022 despite a slow start, Finau has found the Paspalum grass to his liking with the flat stick, and given he has every shot in the game, when he likes the greens, he is a live wire. He isn't on the list this week at the odds, and somehow I have also overlooked an out of form Dylan Wu, despite coming 2nd and 3rd in his 2 appearances here.
The course stats this week, Par 71, 7456 Yards, a Greg Norman design, it's no shock that it's a drivers course. The rough is short, the course is protected by bunkers but they are so perfect that anyone who hits it miles and keeps it dry will do the business here. 4 par 5s and 5 par 3s again, the longer hitters are going to gain strokes a plenty. When Rahm won in 2022 his gained 6 shots against the average with his big stick alone. Length with a modicum of accuracy is the key, and a good week on the greens is a match made in heaven.
4 bombers this week- from the 132 players to post, and we move away from Tony and go for 4 places at strong odds. Last week my number 1 pick was KEITH MITCHELL, yet he didn't play. He isn't a West Coast performer, he trends in Florida, yet he comes here in what I expect is a prep week primarily but he is a live contender in all metrics. He hits it long, straight and tee to green he is the best player in the field this week. He is my stand out pick and I hope he adapts to Paspalum greens (Mayakoba in 2022 the only previous comp he's played on them T56th). He's 22/1 top 8 on Bet365 and we are 6pts e/w.
An obvious pick this week, and not my first time with him, the talented and it seems, fit, CAMERON CHAMP has all the metrics to play well here. The course should set his eye, his game and his distance. He has missed all 4 cuts this year in his 4 events, however all have been to scores shot under par, and he leads the PGA tour in Strokes gained off the tee. Yes that shows up how poor his approach play and putting have been, but he has finished 6th and 8th in his 2 visits here and although his price maybe isn't as juicy as I would have liked, but he's a live contender. and at 50/1 with Hills 8 places we are 4pts e/w.
Next up it isn't very inventive on the face of it, but Distance and accuracy with the driver stats have nobody better on tour this year than PATTON KAZZIRE. He was an obvious deep dive into his career candidate, and although I tried not to make the stats fit my inclination, his 15th last November in Mayakoba on Paspalum greens tipped it. He finished 13th at the Sony in January, 1 shot off the cut mark last year in his first go here, and if his iron play can improve he is a good enough putter to out run his odds of 100/1 this week. 2 pts e/w with Bet365 top 8.
Last up we have a Korn Ferry tour graduate, and also, importantly CHRIS GOTTERUP has a 7th place finish in the 2022 Puerto Rico open on Paspalum. He was a solid performer last season on the Korn Ferry with 14 top 25s from 24 events. An ex Lacrosse player the 24yr old New Jersey man has power in abundance, and despite a best finish of 50th this season (at the Farmers), he could well run into a place on a course that should suit his easy power. He's 80/1 8 places with Hills and the last 3pts e/w goes on him.
30pts invested this week, as we head towards the Florida swing, be warned my excitement for PGA National and Bay Hill is coming, without even mentioning the Players and the Masters!
Always bet within your means and gamble responsibly, keep the faith, enjoy and good luck for the week ahead.
TEWT