The 150th Open at St Andrews will be 3 things:
1) Iconic
2) Firm, fast and almost 20 under par
3) Not won by robotic trackman players
So the final major of the year is my 3rd favourite event of the year. I love playing Links golf, as a player it's my go to, but unless it's blowing a gale at Carnoustie I don't really get too high or low watching. The last time an Open lit me up was Speith's mad Open at Birkdale. Apart from that and Stenson's face off with Mickelson at Troon in 2016 these are generally forgettable 8 times out of 10. Sacrilege maybe, but give me the Masters and the US Open (and the evening viewing) any day of the week.
So this week after a quiet month on the profit front, I'm looking for 3 things. Lag putting, length and creativity, but without the latter the first 2 are obsolete. Usually I get my blog out before Steve Palmer but this week I'm late to the party and I watched his views before getting the chance to write mine. He didn't change my mind apart from the great case he made for Rory, but he is way too short and may be well worth a bet in running so keep an eye out.
Links ability and creativity......that is what I'm going for so to then put up 3 American's out of my 6 picks is absolutely mental some may think. There are some crazy places being offered this week, but please beware that there is little to no value in taking so many places and in some cases losing up to 50% of the price just for 4 extra places. If the bookies are offering you something, it benefits them not you. I've taken best odds and places in my opinion based upon how the points system works, but if you want to go elsewhere that's up to you.
St Andrews needs no introduction does it? 7300+ yadda yadda par 72 yadda yadda will play significantly shorter this year. Many players will be driving 3 or 4 greens, the 2 par 5's will be par 4s and in order to challenge the players it will be so firm fast, yellow and crusty even Faldo will be hitting wedges in most of the round. So this basically becomes a game of patience, intelligence and feel (and a shit load of luck avoiding bunkers).
In golf there is no more intelligent course plotter than Jordan Speith and he is my obvious yet perfect pick, and trending pick to win. I'm burning 45 points this week because I think I have the winner so Jordan takes up 7pts 20/1 ew top 9 places with Hills. His mindset, creativity and durability is made for Links golf and in 2015 on his first visit here he fell in love with the place and was 1 shot off a play off finishing 4th. Just pile in, come on Jordan.
Pick number 2 is a man who has been quiet for a couple of years but has been welcome guest at the top of some big leaderboard's recently - Justin Rose. Rosey isn't someone I put up often or lightly, his flat stick put me off for years and then when he sorted it he changed to Honma Irons and ruined his best years for money. He has form here finishing 6th in 2015, he is a runner-up in the Alfred Dunhill Links (2 rounds here) and he seems over the wrist injury that has held him back. He's 41 now and in his prime in my opinion, and given the latest LIV golf rejection (well done lad) I'm thinking a clear mind, a love of the old course and an absolutely outrageous 80/1 8 places bet 365, he's 3pts ew and a live chance.
Pick 3 is the best club thrower and swearer of his generation. Unlike Rahm the terrible, Tyrell Hatton throws temper tantrums with a panache rarely seen on tour and I love it. Why sky insist on showing his shots without a time lag is beyond me, and I'm hoping Coltard and McGinley have to apologise all week for him when he's in contention. He has no obvious weaknesses, he should have more wins to his name but this test may just bring out the best in him. He has shown patience in Links events like he doesn't show elsewhere, his 2 wins and 1 runner up in the Dunhill show that, so a less than speculative 4pts e/w 40/1 8 places Bet365 will do me.
Pick 4 and 5 can be bundled together as two players who have that nouse and creativity many Americans don't possess. Both men are without a major which is a surprise, and both men are great ball strikers, but more importantly, they are probably the best 2 lag putters in the game. It's a week for 40 foot putts and these 2 will be at or near the top of the SG putting stats, so 4 points ew for Patrick Cantlay 28/1 8 places Bet365 and 3.5pts Will Zalatoris 33/1 8 places Bet365.
Last but by no means least is a copy and paste job. I have put him up most weeks (since a return to some semblance of form in April) apart from when he decides to come 2nd at the Barbasol. He is always 1 decent putting week away from something special, he is inventive, has a great iron and wedge game, he has those beautiful Argie/Spanish style hands and just because he is a poor putter he has tumbled down the WG rankings. He is too good for the doldrums, and hopefully that belief last week in the pop and crisps championship, somewhere in the land of the free to eat lard, will see him close to some juicy place money. 1pt e/w 300/1 8 places Bet365, yum yum. If you don't know I'm taking about Emiliano Grillo then get subscribing. In fact do it anyway, it'd be nice to know some people enjoy my writing and occasional profits.
In Summary:
Jordan Speith 7pts ew 20/1 Hills 9 Places
Justin Rose 3pts ew 90/1 Bet365 8 Places
Tyrell Hatton 4pts ew 40/1 Bet365 8 Places
Patrick Cantlay 4pts ew 28/1 Bet365 8 Places
Will Zalatoris 3.5pts ew 30/1 Bet365 8 Places
Emiliano Grillo 1pt ew 300/1 Bet365 8 Places
