Another week of nearly men in Mexico last week. Cam Champ getting a lead on Saturday and then in contention Sunday he came up and out of a drive on 14 and splosh that was that. Good place return for profit and oh my Kelly Kraft was 2 shots off paying 100/1 place odds. I saw enough from Grillo last week that he is ready to bounce back and let's ignore Russell Knox.....forever!
So the Wells Fargo is hosted in Potomac this year (it's near New York enough said), a year away from the wonderful Quail Hollow (much to Rory's dismay no doubt - and mine). The course is tight, it general blows a bit (like 15mph which to these soft blokes is like a Hurricane) with former winners here being ball strikers par excellence (Molinari, Stanley, Curtis) and the course record holders of Molinari, Streelman and Ancer. It's 7107 yards, a par 70 and and judging by the Real Housewives show my wife watches, houses a group of women who are absolute trash (I can't comment on the men there isn't a Real Husbands of Potomac I don't think).
I've been biding my time since the Masters for this man who is coming back into form. Tee to green he was imperious at Augusta and putted poorly to finish 30th. Whilst I can't put my finger on the lull over the last 18 months the Leish is back with 3 top 20s this season and primed for this event. It's not a short layout with some 200 yard plus par 3s and some almost 500 yard 4s so this awesome long iron player and putter slips nicely into the perfect fit mould. Mark Leishman 5pts e/w at 33s and 40s in places top 7 or 8 is my main pick. He was almost my only pick this week I'm so bullish, but one other man jumps out of the page as well and I'll throw a speculative one in which is obvious despite his odds not being so (and a stupid one for the 20points outlay).
2nd pick is Cameron Young. This short and stocky New Yorker is an excellent fit here. He has 3, yes 3, top 3 finishes this year, 2nd place at the Farmers and the Genesis (he's going into the masters tracker) and 3rd at Harbour Town so he won't mind the wind in Maryland. He's a scrapper and 3rd in strokes gained off the tee. I'm pulling for him to put himself in plenty of nice positions this week and at 40/1 he's well worth 3pts e/w and a possible PGA Championship sleeper.
Now this may seem ridiculous, it's a bit Janet and John guide to picking players, but former winner, course record holder, tee to green specialist and former major champ Francesco Molinari still hasn't rediscovered his form from 2018-19 and has missed the cut by a mile at the Masters and the Valspar. He's relocated to LA, he has a new swing coach (which is probably why Denis Pugh doesn't get a gig at Sky anymore) and in his own words is 're-inventing himself'. It's not really crying out 'tracker', but at 80/1 I'm 1pt e/w because it's a huge price if that soft draw returns for a few days.
So I start off with 1 pick, upgrade to 2 and now I'm doing a Steve Palmer FOUR because we need a silly one!!!!!!!!! It's left field, but seeing Bill and Jay Haas having such a ball at the New Orleans Pairs event 2 weeks ago, I couldn't help but think maybe Bill will have some perspective on his life as a PGA tour golfer. It's speculative, but Bill Haas was once a perennial tour championship contender, a multiple winner, a Charles Howell style cash machine and a brilliant Iron player. He's not the player he was, his confidence has gone but I can't help but think maybe playing 4 rounds of tournament golf with his dad has given him a new focus. At 300/1 1pt e/w I'll take that hunch. If nothing else he may keep some weekend interest, he's made his last 8 cuts.
Obvious contenders are Finau/Connors/Kuchar and Mitchell but there is only so much money to lay out, if Mitchell wins I'll kick myself (or Lucas Glover as per usual).
