In the words of Mark Immelman "this guy plays tough courses well", that guy is our number 1 pick this week.
After a strong start to the season (performance rather than profit after a small loss), the Amex gave so many pointers to the next couple of events, and despite JT being outstayed by the brilliant Sepp Straka, there was a shit tonne of data to go on, both physical and visually and we head to The North and South Courses at Torrey Pines this week with a very very bullish pick.
Before we talk about the player in question, we review Torrey Pines, as the Farmers hosts again, with players playing the North and South course in rotation before the cut and 2 rounds on the South Course after. The South Course is the major course hosting the 2008 and 2021 US Open, and is the much more difficult of the two. In 2020 for instance the North Course played 221 Under Par and the South 220 over par, the length and difficulty is a huge contrast between the two. Winds this week are moderate and although slightly cooler on Thursday there wont be a draw bias, and the name of the game is to make hay on the North and hang on for grim death for the other 3 rounds, with driving accuracy being everything!
With tight fairways and many straight holes, massive elevations and undulating greens, it's an accuracy first course and a great short game is an absolute must.
So this week's 4 selections are mix of ball strikers and scramblers. I doubt I will have many stronger opinions on many players this season than I do this week, as we select WILL ZALATORIS with a degree of excitement. His back troubles seem to be ok, he showed no signs of discomfort last week, and he plays US Open tracks better than anyone else in the field. Matsuyama is favourite and the high ranked player in the field and his straight ball flight suits here so well, as does his form, but big Will is world class and has the length, accuracy and short game to take this field on. His record here is excellent. 13th, MC, 2nd and 7th in his short career here. 12th and 26th in his first 2 starts he looked close last week as he gets up to fitness and form. He has switched to one of those stupid lab putters, I don't think he was ever a bad putter, I just think analysts and coaches are too hung up on aesthetics, so the switch is a mental fix not a physical one, and he is superb from 15-4 feet (and always has been), so anyone who puts you off his with putting talk, is talking shite. The bookies have left themselves wide open here and he is as big as 22/1 8 places so 8 points e/w on Betfair is the play.
Whilst Matsuyama has a ball flight to die for round here, the uncooked spaghetti ball flight of CHARLEY HOFFMAN was drool worthy last week as he hit fairway after fairway and green after green before trying to attack the 13th on the Stadium course and found the drink twice. But for that he would have taken Straka close, it was a brave play and showed his mentality, that at 48 he was there for the win and win only and he is striping it. He putts like an absolute twat, and has consistently done so for years, but with all of the elevation and breaks on these greens, his Augusta prowess could be seen to full effect here, as the onus is on getting on the greens not making lots of putts. He is a huge price given his form and 80/1 with Bet365 currently as we invest 2pts each way on the Hoff.
The big price of the week is a hunch pick and he could be boom or bust but So-Cal, surfer dude and shot shaping god JAKE KNAPP is next up. The way this lad plays, his freedom, his shot shaping, it doesn't automatically scream US Open venue specialist, but he was hitting so many beautiful low bullets off the tee last week, he looks like he's finding a rhythm and when he does anything can happen. He is 250/1 in places (6 places), but he is 150s currently with Bet365 and others 8 places so we invest 2pts each way on him. If nothing else he'll be a great watch, I've got to admit, I'm developing a bit of a crush on his game, he wins again this year, so will be one to follow!
It was a toss of a coin for the last pick, and although Luke Clanton missed the cut last week, his invite to this event was interesting. In the end his 40/1 versus STEPHAN JAEGER at 60/1 was the deal breaker. The stout German powerhouse is no stranger to the blog, and if he gets that big stick flowing he could steal a march on many here. It's a big if, he does make mistakes, but at 60/1 last years long time leader, finishing 3rd has the tools to contend. He was 3rd at the Sony on his last start, all roads do point strongly and we go 3pts e/w with Paddy Power 8 places.
Another exciting Sunday beckons, go well.
TEWT
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