It's that time of year. Riviera Country club, Pacific Palisades, California, one of my favourite golf courses in the world, a place I would love to play (Here, Augusta, Shinnecock and Pebble) and although I'm sad it's a designated event with a reduced field of 70, my favourite tour event comes this week.
A small profit again last week with Sahith playing ok despite spraying it to all parts off the tee, but most annoyingly, the last man off the list after his 2nd to Scottie in 23, Nick Taylor won a play off against a resurgent Charlie Hoffman. Financially a very troubling win for me, but I saw Bezuidenhout as better value after watching Nick lose the ball right the week before way too often. Oh well such is golf, he did the same again but putted the lights out. A mention for Charley Hoffman also, who looked better than ever, another masters nudge if he can qualify.
As usual we have death, taxes, Scheffler missing 4 footers and Rory being way too short this week. The front end of the market stacked and protected by the bookies, and although I would have Homa and Hovland as the main protagonists this week, a lack of playing time puts me off the short odds. As we look at the course this week, or rather as I try and share my rain man knowledge of the place, there are two key factors this week that will make or break the winner. 1, keeping the ball left off the tee on 10, which is the best hole on the planet in my opinion, a driveable par 4 with a tiny green, bunkers surrounding it and punishment for being out of position like no other hole in golf. At between 290-330 yards it is a par 4, that if you miss right off the tee, a 4 is an unbelievable score. Throughout the 4 days you will see players hitting it from bunker to bunker, hitting it sideways when there is nothing obscuring the approach, and more de-greening putts like we saw from the Scheff on Sunday gone. What a hole. 2, Strokes gained driving. You have to be straight and long here, it suits a slight fade in the main but straight hitting is a must and that brings all of my players into my thinking this week as we go 4 handed, with the lowest odds of 28/1.
Riv, Par 71, 7322 yards, is a track that doesn't often yield low scores, especially when they can get it firm. The greens are some of the quickest on tour, and targets are small given run offs and approach shots need to be from the fairway to score here. Generally scores of 10-17 under win here, but with this new elevated status, I'm hoping Tiger, and the course team set this up firm, fast and difficult to put the world's best players through the mill.
Enough of my love affair with Riv, we move on to the first selection this week, and we go in odds order, as we start with JORDAN SPEITH. As Kevin Kisner called him on the golf channel cast last week, 'the golden child' is looking back to his mercurial best. His driving is as good as it has ever been, he's holing putts and chips from all over, his short game looks up there, his wedge play is returning to previous levels, and everything but his 5 foot percentage and in is set up for another win on tour, in any company. As we head towards the masters, this is when he lights up, I'll be all over him for Augusta, but this week, given how stacked the players are at the top end, there is some real juice in his odds currently, so get on 28/1 6 places with Hills. 7pts e/w.
Next up is Mr 2nd, Mr angry and Mr looking back to form CAMERON YOUNG. The gritty New Yorker seems to have overcome some strange coaching methods from last year, and is bombing his big stick again. In terms of distance and accuracy I'd say only Aberg and Scheffler are on par, he has a good short game, a strong iron player, and the deficiencies in his game that put too much pressure on his putting, seem to have gone. Although I would have like to see him finish closer last week when in with a squeak, I'm happy enough he is going in the right direction, and although he could get his maiden win at a Barracuda, or Puerta Rico event, he could also beat the best in the world, he is that good. Again, a really appetising price, 40/1 5 places with bet365 4pts e/w.
With driving at the forefront of my thinking, it was toss between 2 starlets of the game this week, two Ryder cup heroes and Scandinavian pretenders to Hovlands throne. With Aberg at 22/1 and NICOLAI HOJGAARD at 55s I had to go full thief and pick the bigger price. Hojgaard, is long, he's talented, he's a little wild but he's working out how to contend and the big occasion seems the perfect fit for him. If he can put it all together in the same week he will win soon, yes he is raw, but he is a huge price this week and with Betfair he is 55/1 7 places and 3pts e/w is invested in hope and expectation,
Lastly we have one of the most underrated golfers on tour. Winning the Bay Hill invitational last year, when under attack from the world's elite showed exactly how big time this lad is. Fortunately for us, iron play god KURT KITAYAMA is not only dismissed by golf experts but also by odds compilers. He played well last week, that fade was Morikawa esque and at a ridiculous 90/1 8 places with Bet365 I'm having a larger than usual investment at those odds and we go 4pts e/w!
36points invested this week, an 8 point profit from last week, This could go to one of so many, but Homa, Clark, Hovland and Morikawa will hopefully not break my heart and Scheffler may find a way to not hole at least 50 birdie opportunities yet again.
Go well, keep embracing small profits, and all systems go for 4 days of compelling viewing.
TEWT
