(This blog contains a lot of swearing this week)
There is no need for a punchy title.
The bastard son of the major events, is this year, a proper event, a proper major on a proper golf course that could test these players to the absolute fullest. Firm, fast, unreceptive small greens and the thickest of thick rough will require supreme control and accuracy, and this week the future of world golf could start his road to greatness.
Last week was the dampest squib since the blog began, which considering we are into year 3 now, is not too bad, I couldn't have had Mcilroy, despite only having to beat Mr 2nd in Schauffelle, he did play very well, but despite this I can't have him on a place this firm and tough in such a stellar field where a score over 14 under is unlikely.
Valhalla Golf Club, Louisville, Kentucky, hosts this years 2024 PGA Championship. The site of Mcilroy's last major in 2014, this place has undergone quite a few changes since then, but at 7609 yards a par 71 3 par 5s it is an absolute beast. Targets will be small with it being so firm and although distance is king, this also makes fairways very very hard to hit, so there are many factors in play. Stats, trends and form alike it all builds into a bigger picture, but unlike this season where Scheffler or an also-ran wins, star quality is the play of the week for me, and our line up is full of talent for major number 2. The caveat is obviously Scottie. Meredith gave birth last night so he has a clear mind, the baby bounce (which is a thing in golf) and the mentality to just out last the mere mortals in the field, but at 4/1 there is only short term money in backing favs. Ask any bookie. If you want a quick vanity win, to tell people you know golf and are some betting genius then knock yourself out, get stuck in, but over time you CANNOT make money backing shorties, so I'll let him win if he does and be happy to let that go.
So the course is long, it's firm, the rough has grown thick this spring, with humid conditions and wet weather. The grass type has been changed, so without going into real detail on this, it makes the grass able to withstand it being cut very short, without increased maintenance, and run off areas are now super short, making the new bunkers and old bunkers on the layout massive targets if slightly off line. The greens have all been modified, making the targets harder to hold and therefore much smaller to the ball, Sadly the wind is down this week, so these players won't be brutalised, but I'm hoping despite the distance these boys get it out there, a tough assignment looms, with no real draw bias.
Only a madman could leave out Brooks this week, so stick a pair of pants on my head, two pencils up my nose and hear me say 'wubble'. I'm leaving him out, and there is only 1 reason for this, and that reason is the 2nd coming that is LUDVIG ABERG. Even typing his name gives me Goosebumps, if there is a track, and an occasion more suited to the Texan/Swedish Viking, it is Valhalla. The hall of slain warriors in Norse mythology will see the Swede at his absolute best this week and I'm so hot for this lad, right here, right now. A year into his pro career he is entering his 2nd major after somehow finishing 2nd in his first major and first trip to Augusta (which shows such a golf IQ to go with his talent). The guy is a freak, and if you want distance and accuracy, he rivals Scottie, and a good week around the greens will see him go very very close. I'm not sure if he is too short, or absolutely massive this week at 18/1 (1/4 odds) top 5 with Bet365 but we go 8pts e/w and the popcorn is out.
Now Ludvig wins obviously, but we need to find place money elsewhere, and we start off with Texas Open winner, and 2018 junior PGA Champ (here at Valhalla) AKSHAY BHATIA. Now the wiry left hander is on only his 3rd major start, but he has a series of top 20s in recent times and only a 35th in his Masters debut and 42nd last week at the Wells Fargo breaking that cycle, to go with that play off win in Texas. A beast with his irons, his approach play and excellent putting will be a real asset this week and at a big price I'm fancying his place chances. 125/1 8 places with Bet365 this week and we are 2pts e/w on him.
Idiot alert (or shrewdy we'll know more by sunday). I said I wouldn't, I thought I wouldn't and I really shouldn't but my word means nothing it seems and I've betrayed my words, myself, my entire family and jumped back into bed with my cliff horse. It's place money, it's daft but at 45/1, I've done it, 4pts e/w with bet365, he drives it so well, what am I doing, where's my straight jacket? Fuck you, fuck you CAM YOUNG, why do we have to be this way together? I'm not even putting his name in Bold type.
...And breathe. 5 plays this week (40pts) and our last 2 are picked for very different reasons. First up tee to green specialist and ball striker extraordinaire BYEONG HUN AN showed decent form at Quail Hollow last week, and despite his horrific putting he has 5 top 10s this season and is so good tee to green, that a few missed shorties here and there may not be as damaging as most regular weeks. 16th at the Masters, 3rd last week, these lightning greens may cover up some poor putting strokes, and he is someone I rate very very highly. He is experienced, still young and with his new stupid stick (following Scott, Glover etc) he is inside the top 100 in putting on tour which is a career high. 60/1 with Paddy Power 10 places, we go 3pts e/w. This is a test that really should suit him well, whilst lesser ball strikers are packed off on Friday night to the knackers yard, Staurday could bring about high hopes.
On the opposite end of the scale, the boom or bust talent and swagger of our next pick could be anything. He could miss the cut by a mile or be 5 clear going into Saturday, but MIN WOO LEE drives the ball great, he loves the big occasion and can run hot with the flat stick (or colder than a corpses crotch). His iron play is absolute wank at times, but he did place at PGA National, which is a tough track and he is an exhibitionist. He has a very good record of contending in big events and in majors, so this week we have a speculative punt on him at tidy odds. 66/1 8 places with Bet365, our final 3pts e/w is on him, in an event that yields 1st time winners - or Brooks generally.
Enjoy the week, enjoy the viewing and let's hope everyone enjoys Ludvig putting on a show, in the last event he is ever 18/1 for.
TEWT
