We can go again - it's the 5th Major

Well Bayhill was the site of my best ever round of golf in 2022, and in 2025 Russell Henley gave me one of the great days for punting and I hope you got on early and at the 50s, 60s and a bit of 70s that didn't last long. I'm trying to keep my odds to Paddy Power, Hills, Bet365 so sometimes the prices may go but I want to be genuine on the prices I put up and not inflate my numbers. Russell Henley - What a player that lad is, a great iron player and unlike our recent selections who went oh so close, great under pressure, that chip on 16 woke the entire street up.

So we head 2.5hrs North to TPC Sawgrass this week and the Stadium Course, Pete Dye's masterpiece and the 5th Major, which like Augusta, is a festival of golf and one of the great weeks of the year. Warm weather, no wind and perfect conditions will see much improved scores here as opposed to Bayhill so there is a chance someone shoots the lights out and wins by 6, but in an event which does not provide close finishes, let's hope we either have a clear winner, or the event throws up a rare thriller. This Par 72 with 4 x Par 5s, is a great test of shot shaping, protected by bunkering, trees and water, it punishes bad shots but rewards good ones an someone may get close to 20 under I think. The usual suspects at the top of the field are there, but as usual absolutely zero value on any of them, and this is not a course that can overpower so intelligent golfers and short game guns will be up there.

So let's go, and in no order after this I will put up my bet of the week and one of the bets of the blog, my head, heart, gut and know how point at one man as unbelievable value.

He's won twice for us in Canada last year and then at the Renaissance club in the Scottish Open, but the shot shaping, short game and putting skills of BOB MCINTYRE just align. He is a top player, this course will suit his eye, these greens will suit his chipping and putter and in big events he just does big things at big times. His 6th in the cauldron in Phoenix showed me he is where he needs to be and he is a multiple major winner in the making. It's a late blog so his price is stable and 8 places with Bet365 have him at 60/1 and we go 5pts ew on him....he is such a good thing to contend.

The usual pick next, as Ponta Vedra resident and ball striker extraordinaire AARON RAI is up again. He moved onto the Sawgrass property in 2022 and has since not quite contended, despite an ace on 17 last year, but he is a tee to green beast, his lack of distance won't hurt him here and he will go close. He played well last week and finished close to a place, he's playing week in week out, despite concerns about how he finishes on a Sunday. His price isn't great but Paddy Power and some others are offering 10 places so we go 6pts ew on AARON there at 40/1.

He wasn't quite ready at PGA national, but DANIEL BERGER is once again on the list this week. Injury free every week is a good week for him as he gets sharper and sharper and the more he plays the more he will learn to trust himself under pressure. His putting is a slight concern, but at 50/1 with Paddy Power 10 places, he is another nice price for a place and we go 5pts e/w on him also.

A hunch next, as this event, and big events bring out the best in MIN WOO LEE. His iron game comes good here, despite being a weakness and he loves the feel of a major and this has every feel of a major. He does have an 11th, 12th and 17th in 4 events this year. He has made the cut in both previous visits here and a 6th in 2023 things do point to him being massively overpriced. He's 90/1 all over, and again 10 places on Paddy Power is the place to be and we go 3pts e/w.

Last but by no means least we have a hail-mary. In the fall last year MATT MCCARTY decided he wasn't going to get anywhere with a raking hard draw. He shaped the living shit out of his ball, and the best players in the world shape their rock just slightly left or right, and consistency is king. The strides he made with his irons have been so evident on shot tracer this year, first grabbing my attention at Torrey Pines, and despite a host of midfield results since winning the Black Desert Championship he is over priced. Our 1pt ew on him (and shop around) goes with Hills at 400/1 8 places.

Apologies for the late release I did type up early Wednesday afternoon but it went into drafts - I'm not the most proficient with IT, so go well....and go again.

TEWT