A quick run through the Valspar this week, as it's a week of horse racing for me.
Scheffler seemed a good thing as stated last week and so it proved. A share of 8th for Justin Suh recouped some of our stakes, and as much as Taylor Montgomery let us down, spare a thought for the lad who managed to lose 40 places and $1.9m in 45mins.
We move West to Tampa this week in the Florida swing for The Valspar, played at the brilliant Copperhead course at Innisbrook. The closing holes 16, 17 and 18 are ranked as 3 of the toughest closing holes on tour and sometimes the weather and breeze can have winning scores in single figures. A par 71, 7340Yards lined with Pines and framed with water this is a Tee to green course, and the last 2 years have seen Sam Burns head the field in ball striking for back to back wins. Rain is forecast from Friday and 8mph winds could see cool but receptive conditions, but I'm not worried about a draw bias too much.
It's a reduced quality field and heading the market are Speith and JT, with the former finding ways to not win when playing well, and the latter playing terribly at the minute so both are a no for me at the 12s this week.
4 selections this week, 3 who sit in midfield in terms of prices, none of them strangers to this blog.
First up is DENNY MCCARTHY. Some strong finishes in recent weeks, 4th at Pebble, 14th at Riviera and 13th at the Players backing up some strong Major performances last year. Denny is synonymous with putting but he is in credit stroke gains tee to green and he makes very few errors. Keeping big numbers off the card this week will be key to winning and at 33/1 he is a live winning chance and we are 5pts e/w 8 places with any of the main bookmakers.
Keeping the faith with a guy who is bang in form in Florida, JUSTIN SUH is no longer a 3 figure price but at 35/1 top 8 with bet365 he is a live chance again this week but for more than a place. In my opinion nobody in this field is playing better tee to green than him and he found an improved putting performance at Sawgrass, so he is trending big time with a 5th in the Honda, 24th from the wrong side of the draw at Bayhill and 6th at the players. 4pts e/w.
Next up is a tenuous pick but GARY WOODLAND is the best driver in the field this week, but what really draws me to him is that he made his first cut in 4 years at the Players last week, a place he has a terrible record at, and given his 9th place at Riv in February I'm drawn to him to put a good performance in at a big 45/1 price top 8 Bet365 I'm happy to put 4pts e/w in.
Lastly is a bit of a mad one and it is price led only. Like Denny McCarthy, NICK HARDY showed some nice form in majors last year and his 14th at Brookline showed his ability to play tough courses. He has missed his last 4 cuts and has no known form for confidence, but this time last year he would have been 40/1 in this field and at 125/1 with Skybet 8 places I'm throwing away 2pts e/w in the hope he can make the weekend, and if he does he could be anything.
I'll publish this now and do a summary and spellcheck tomorrow so we can get on at prices.
TEWT
